Parti Québécois leader still top of polls as election day nears

Read the original at Toronto Star ↗
Toronto Star · collected 2026-10-04 · by Erika Morris The Canadian Press

Quick Summary

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the Parti Québécois (PQ), is leading in polls ahead of Quebec's October 5 election, potentially setting the stage for a third referendum on independence. Four years after winning only three seats and watching Coalition Avenir Québec secure another majority government, the PQ has gained momentum, securing four additional seats through byelections. St-Pierre Plamondon, who promised to hold a referendum if his party forms government, now seeks a majority vote from Quebecers, despite previous criticism of separatism.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-04, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ), made his final pitch to undecided voters over the weekend ahead of Quebec's provincial election on October 5, 2026. Throughout the campaign, the PQ has consistently led in polls despite a general lack of enthusiasm among Quebecers for sovereignty. St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to hold a referendum on independence by 2029 but faces criticism from rivals who argue it would cause instability and economic harm.

About 25% of eligible voters had already cast their ballots through advanced voting, heightening the stakes as all five main parties—PQ, Quebec Liberals, Quebec Conservatives, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), and Quebec Solidaire—are expected to win seats. If elected, the PQ would be poised for a comeback after winning only 3 seats in 2022, marking its lowest total since founding in 1968.

Written for “Quebec Election And Separatism” on 2026-10-05, grounded in this article and the 8 other(s) covering the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
34
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
9%
3 of 34 hedged
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Correction & hedging signals
63.3
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
9
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-04 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Quebec Election And Separatism
Politics · 9 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 9% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Toronto Star
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 2 📰 publisher trust 63
“The articles describe different phases of the election campaign and do not focus on the exact same specific incident.”
National Post
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 37 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles describe different aspects of Parti Québécois and its leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, but do not focus on the same specific incident.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 2 📰 publisher trust 63
“The articles describe different political leaders and parties, addressing distinct events related to their leadership and potential election outcomes.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 1 📰 publisher trust 63
“The articles discuss different party leaders and their respective political situations leading up to an upcoming election, but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 3% hedged 1 of 29 📰 publisher trust 63
“The articles discuss different political parties and leaders facing elections, not the same specific electoral incident.”
Global News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 20% hedged 5 of 25 📰 publisher trust 64
“Both articles discuss Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and Parti Québécois leading up to the same Quebec election on October 5, 2026.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 2 📰 publisher trust 63
“The articles describe different events: one about Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's potential return to power and another about Quebec Liberal Leader Charles Milliard rallying against PQ's referendum pledge.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 2 📰 publisher trust 63
“While both articles discuss Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's position as Parti Québécois leader and his prospects for winning the upcoming election, they describe different aspects of the campaign occurring on two distinct days.”
Toronto Star · 0.85 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 21% hedged 5 of 24 📰 publisher trust 63
“While both articles discuss Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and the Parti Québécois ahead of an upcoming election, they are describing different aspects of the campaign rather than a single specific event.”
CBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 12% hedged 3 of 25 📰 publisher trust 77
“The articles discuss different points in time leading up to an election, with Article A focusing on the political implications for Prime Minister Carney if the Parti Québécois wins, and Article B reporting on the current poll standings and upcoming October 5th election day.”

Publisher

Toronto Star · 5247 article(s) · 17 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 17 correction(s)
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Who wrote this

Erika Morris The Canadian Press
5 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Just before this year’s electoral campaign period began, St-Pierre Plamondon said he would wait until American President Donald Trump is out of the White House to do so.
🔮 Speaking to journalists, he said he would make the plight of unhoused people his “top priority.”
🔮 MONTREAL - Montreal city council is set to debate a proposed bylaw this week that could ban people from insulting municipal employees, including police officers.
🔮 “The proof raises concerns that a large number of English-speaking seniors could be unable to exercise their right to vote due to a lack of understandable information,” Lussier wrote.
Wire or desk byline, not an individual reporter.
Also by Erika Morris The Canadian Press
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

Topics

Canada MONTREAL Parti Québécois Quebec the Coalition Avenir Québec

Subjects

St-Pierre Plamondon PERSON · 5× Quebec GPE · 4× Coalition Avenir Québec ORG · 2× American NORP · 1× Canada GPE · 1× MONTREAL GPE · 1× Parti Québécois ORG · 1× Paul St-Pierre Plamondon PERSON · 1× Pauline Marois PERSON · 1× the Coalition Avenir Québec ORG · 1×

Narrative

However, the party won four more seats in byelections before the legislature was dissolved in August and is now considered the front-runner in a race where the vote is being split among five parties. St-Pierre Plamondon won the PQ leadership in 2020 after promising to hold a referendum if the party formed government.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-04
🔮 Just before this year’s electoral campaign period began, St-Pierre Plamondon said he would wait until American President Donald Trump is out of the White House to do so.
2026-10-04 · Toronto Star
Parti Québécois leader still top of polls as election day nears · assertive framing

Claims (34 extracted, 3 hedged)

MONTREAL - Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon had his work cut out for him after the 2022 election. asserted
work → have → election
His party only won three seats and watched as the Coalition Avenir Québec won a second majority government, presenting itself as a “third way” between federalism and sovereignty. asserted
Québec → win → federalism
Four years later, the leader of the separatist party is poised to bring his party back to power on Oct. 5, setting the table for a third referendum on independence in Quebec. asserted
leader → poise → Quebec
The PQ hasn’t been in power since former premier Pauline Marois’ minority government dissolved in 2014. asserted
government → dissolve → 2014
Historically known as a social-democrat party whose raison d’être was to separate from Canada, the PQ struggled to connect with voters in elections over the next decade. asserted
PQ → know → decade
However, the party won four more seats in byelections before the legislature was dissolved in August and is now considered the front-runner in a race where the vote is being split among five parties. St-Pierre Plamondon won the PQ leadership in 2020 after promising to hold a referendum if the party formed government. asserted
party → win → government
Just before this year’s electoral campaign period began, St-Pierre Plamondon said he would wait until American President Donald Trump is out of the White House to do so. asserted
Trump → begin → House
He said he wanted to “defang” his Liberal, Conservative and Coalition Avenir Québec rivals, who insisted that a referendum would only add to the political instability caused by trade tensions with the United States. asserted
referendum → say → States
“People oversell the instability of going and voting on (separation),” St-Pierre Plamondon said during an interview in English on CJAD’s airwaves on Oct. 1, in which he urged Quebecers to give him a majority government. asserted
he → oversell → government
The Quebec election is scheduled just two weeks before Alberta holds its own referendum on the possibility of separation. asserted
Alberta → schedule → separation
“People are going to vote. asserted
People → go → ?
And nobody thinks there’s any danger in going to vote and being in a democracy,” St-Pierre Plamondon said in the radio interview. asserted
Plamondon → think → interview
But while the PQ leader is now an ardent separatist, he once accused the independence movement of having “split Quebec in two.” asserted
he → accuse → two
He said his experiences as a lawyer and meetings with former PQ politicians led him to change his mind. asserted
experiences → say → mind
He donated over $2000 to the Liberal Party of Canada between 2004 and 2008. asserted
He → donate → 2004
A spokesperson would later say he made the donations during a period when he was a corporate lawyer at Stikeman Elliott, while attending fundraisers tied to his work at the firm. asserted
he → say → firm
He also worked on lawsuits stemming from the federal sponsorship scandal that erupted over a program introduced while former prime minister Jean Chrétien was in power. asserted
Chrétien → work → power
Sometimes describing himself as a “disappointed federalist,” St-Pierre Plamondon later joined the PQ in 2016 under former cabinet minister and party leader Jean-François Lisée. asserted
Plamondon → describe → Lisée
He made headlines after the 2022 election, when he refused to swear the oath to the King. asserted
he → make → King
The government passed a bill making the oath optional soon after, allowing him to sit at the legislature. asserted
him → pass → legislature
During his campaign, he once again attacked the British monarchy, calling it a symbol of “domination by force,” and pledging to defund the office of the lieutenant-governor, which represents the King in Quebec. asserted
which → attack → Quebec
The PQ leader has described himself as “spontaneous,” admitting to sometimes speaking to media without considering possible backlash. asserted
leader → describe → backlash
Meanwhile his rivals deem him to be “hotheaded,” “belligerent,” and “quarrelsome.” asserted
him → deem → ?
The father of three has also said he has found the campaign difficult since it has forced him to be away from his children for days at a time. asserted
it → say → time
Throughout the campaign, the PQ leader leaned on nationalist sentiment and a desire for change to drum up support from those who were disillusioned after eight years of the governing Coalition Avenir Québec. asserted
who → lean → Québec
He also relied on identity politics and linked “uncontrolled immigration” to problems such as the housing crisis, the decline in the French language, the struggling education system and strain on public services. asserted
He → rely → services
Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal compared St-Pierre Plamondon to former premier François Legault, who won two consecutive majority governments by making language, identity and autonomy core governing themes. asserted
language → compare → governments
But St-Pierre Plamondon’s detractors did little to stop his momentum during the campaign. asserted
detractors → do → campaign
Polls initially suggested Quebec was heading toward a minority PQ government. uncertain
Quebec → suggest → government
But by the end of the campaign, support for the Coalition Avenir Québec seemed to tank, opening the door for the PQ to win a majority due to a fragmented political landscape that could see five parties winning seats on Monday night. uncertain
parties → seem → night
The PQ leader has also downplayed his plans for a referendum in the last stretch of the campaign, noting that he believes voters will need to decide who they want to trust to lead Quebec. asserted
they → downplay → Quebec
“It’s not totally accurate to say that this election is only about whether we would hold a referendum in three years from now,” he told CJAD. asserted
he → ’ → CJAD
“It’s about changing or not changing a government that has catastrophic results in many areas of our society and choosing who could do a good job and who could be reliable in terms of what they do and what they say. uncertain
they → ’ → what
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 4, 2026. asserted
report → publish → Press
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