How a 95 percent drop in Hormuz traffic changed global shipping

Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · collected 2026-08-27 · by Hanna Duggal, Marium Ali, Mohamed Hussein
Read the original at Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ↗

Summary

The United States-Israel war on Iran has led to a significant decrease in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy trade. About 80% of world trade by volume moves by sea at some point, making maritime shipping essential to the global economy. Traffic through the Strait has fallen from over 100 vessels per day to just five, and Lloyd's List estimates that dry bulk carriers made about 7,000 Hormuz transits a year before the war. The closure of the Strait is considered one of the worst maritime shipping disruptions in decades, with no alternative maritime route available.
Written by the local model on 2026-08-27, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
66
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
8%
5 of 66 hedged
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject
Publisher trust
96.5
red-flag proxy, not a credibility rating
Outlets on this story
1
World
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-08-27 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Story summary

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a 33km (21-mile) waterway in the Middle East, has drastically reduced maritime shipping traffic to just 5 vessels per day from over 100 vessels daily. This drastic drop is disrupting the global supply chain, affecting the flow of oil, gas, and goods worldwide. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for international trade, with about 80% of world trade by volume moving by sea at some point. As a result, the war between the United States and Israel on Iran has had far-reaching consequences, impacting industries that rely on timely shipping. The decline in Hormuz traffic is part of a larger trend, with increased threats to global shipping from conflicts in regions such as Ukraine and Yemen.

Written for “Middle East Shipping Crisis” on 2026-08-31, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Score -0.35 Confidence high
Leaning score -0.35 for article 2813 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-08-27

Story

📰 Middle East Shipping Crisis
World · 1 article(s) covering the same event. This is the one the site leads with.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 8% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Top News - UPI.com
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 7% hedged 1 of 15 📰 publisher trust 54
“Article A describes a specific incident of a projectile striking an oil tanker on August 24, while Article B discusses the broader impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz six months later”
BBC News
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 28 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article A reports on a claim made by President Trump about mines being cleared from the Strait of Hormuz, while Article B discusses the ongoing effects and traffic disruptions in the strait six months into the war”
ABC News: Top Stories
⚖️ Leans strongly left further left than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 5 📰 publisher trust 94
“Article A describes a statement made by an Iranian official about not exporting oil due to US economic sanctions, while Article B reports on the consequences of a war between the US and Israel on Iran, which resulted in a significant decrease in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Home - CBSNews.com
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 8% hedged 21 of 278 📰 publisher trust 58
“Article A describes an agreement between Iran and Oman with the goal of opening a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, while Article B reports on the ongoing maritime shipping disruption due to the closure of the Strait”
World | Deutsche Welle
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 5% hedged 2 of 37 📰 publisher trust 95
“The articles describe different events: Article A reports on recent Houthi strikes against oil tankers and infrastructure, while Article B discusses the ongoing impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz six months prior.”
Top News - UPI.com
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 20% hedged 4 of 20 📰 publisher trust 54
“Article A describes a persistent maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, while Article B reports on a specific clearance operation by CENTCOM, indicating two separate developments in the conflict”
News | Euronews RSS
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 4% hedged 2 of 45 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article A mentions the 'closure of the Strait of Hormuz' and a 95% drop in traffic, while Article B refers to a 'reinstated US naval blockade off Iran's southern coast', indicating different terms used to describe the same general situation”
World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 3 📰 publisher trust 94
“Article A mentions a general decline in Hormuz traffic, while Article B describes a specific US attack on an Iranian island and subsequent retaliation, suggesting two distinct events”
World | Deutsche Welle
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 16% hedged 6 of 38 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article A describes disruptions to grain shipments due to Ukrainian attacks on Russia's Black Sea ports, while Article B discusses a significant drop in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz due to a war between the US and Iran”

Publisher

Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 173 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
SignalValueWeight
Correction rate 0.000 0.4
Uncertainty density 0.070 0.25
Assertive mismatch rate 0.000 0.35
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Hanna Duggal
1 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 “Once the Middle East war kicked off, we suddenly saw more ship owners being willing to go into the Red Sea because there were far fewer options to get to the crew they needed to get to.
The only article under this byline in the corpus.
Marium Ali
1 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 “Once the Middle East war kicked off, we suddenly saw more ship owners being willing to go into the Red Sea because there were far fewer options to get to the crew they needed to get to.
The only article under this byline in the corpus.
Mohamed Hussein
1 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 “Once the Middle East war kicked off, we suddenly saw more ship owners being willing to go into the Red Sea because there were far fewer options to get to the crew they needed to get to.
The only article under this byline in the corpus.

Topics

Al Jazeera Iran Israel UNCTAD United States

Subjects

Iran GPE · 3× Al Jazeera ORG · 2× UNCTAD ORG · 2× Gibson Shipbrokers ORG · 1× Israel GPE · 1× Lloyd’s List ORG · 1× London GPE · 1× Reuters ORG · 1× Richard Matthews PERSON · 1× United States GPE · 1×

Narrative

Whereas, if you go back 10 years ago, the main threat to shipping was probably Somali piracy, now you’ve got any form, where you’ve got Ukrainian drones hitting shipping or Russian drones hitting shipping, you’ve got the same situation in Hormuz again, and it’s easier for the Houthis to target ships in the Bab al-Mandeb region.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-08-27
🔮 “Once the Middle East war kicked off, we suddenly saw more ship owners being willing to go into the Red Sea because there were far fewer options to get to the crew they needed to get to.
2026-08-27 · Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera
How a 95 percent drop in Hormuz traffic changed global shipping · assertive framing

Claims (66 extracted, 5 hedged)

Six months into the United States-Israel war on Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to drive one of the worst maritime shipping disruptions in decades. asserted
closure → continue → decades
Traffic through the 33km (21-mile) chokepoint has fallen from more than 100 vessels a day to just five, disrupting the flow of oil, gas and goods worldwide. asserted
Traffic → fall → oil
Al Jazeera visualises how a crisis in one narrow passage has disrupted an industry that carries about 80 percent of the world’s trade. asserted
that → visualise → trade
About 80 percent of goods move by sea Almost everything people buy, from the fuel in their cars to the grain in their bread, has likely spent time on board a vessel at sea. asserted
people → move → sea
About 80 percent of world trade by volume moves by sea at some point, making maritime shipping essential to the global economy, according to UNCTAD, the UN’s trade and development body. uncertain
shipping → move → UNCTAD
Not all ships are created equal. asserted
ships → create → ?
Different vessels are built for various purposes, from moving oil to the goods we rely on every day. asserted
we → build → goods
- Oil tankers are among the largest ships and carry energy products such as crude oil, refined petroleum, and chemicals. asserted
tankers → carry → oil
Most crude oil is transported by Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs, which can access a wide range of ports and carry about two million barrels of crude. asserted
which → transport → crude
- Container ships transport consumer goods such as phones and clothing in stacked steel boxes known as containers. asserted
ships → transport → containers
Some are enormous, measuring more than 400m (1,312 feet) long and carrying more than 20,000 containers. asserted
Some → measure → containers
- Dry bulk carriers transport raw materials like grain, coal and iron ore. asserted
carriers → transport → grain
Lloyd’s List estimates they made about 7,000 Hormuz transits a year, or about 20 a day, before the war. asserted
they → estimate → war
- General cargo ships carry mixed goods like steel and machinery, while Ro-Ro ships transport wheeled cargo such as cars, trucks and heavy machinery. asserted
ships → carry → cars
It is one of three main gateways in the Middle East, carrying more than one-third of global seaborne crude oil and nearly one-third of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) flows, along with significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refined petroleum products. asserted
It → carry → gas
“That’s probably the first time we’ve really seen a major constriction of a choke point,” Richard Matthews, director of consultancy and research at Gibson Shipbrokers, a London-based shipbroking and maritime advisory service, told Al Jazeera. asserted
Matthews → ’ → Jazeera
He explained that what makes the Strait of Hormuz different from other chokepoints is “there is no alternative maritime route. asserted
Strait → explain → chokepoints
There are some pipelines, but there’s no alternative, which is why it’s been so significant in terms of cargo volume. asserted
it → be → volume
Ports along the Gulf are where much of the region’s energy begins its journey to the rest of the world. asserted
much → begin → world
What used to pass through the Strait of Hormuz? asserted
What → use → Hormuz
According to UNCTAD data, the week before the Iran war began, average flows of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz accounted for roughly 38 percent of the global total, LPG was 29 percent and LNG was 19 percent. uncertain
LNG → accord → total
Crude exports from the Gulf region have dropped by nearly half (47 percent) compared with before the war, down from about 17 million barrels a day in 2025 to roughly nine million bpd as of August 2026. asserted
exports → drop → August
According to Reuters, analysts estimate that five to seven million barrels of Gulf oil a day are currently being disrupted. uncertain
barrels → accord → oil
Direct exports of crude oil moving via the strait have fallen to an average of just 2.2 million bpd, according to Kpler, a data and analytics company that tracks global commodity markets and trade flows. uncertain
that → move → markets
The chart below shows the combined crude oil shipments from the Gulf’s largest oil-producing countries – Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait – dropping sharply since the start of the war from roughly 400 million barrels in February to about 200 million barrels in July. asserted
shipments → show → July
From 100 ships daily to five Before the war, about 100 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day, more than half of them tankers, carrying tens of millions of barrels of oil. asserted
ships → pass → oil
That collapsed within days of the February 28 US-Israeli strikes on Iran. asserted
That → collapse → Iran
After the IRGC announced the strait’s closure on March 2, traffic fell to an average of five vessels a day and stayed there through the April ceasefire and the US blockade of Iranian ports. asserted
traffic → announce → ports
A June 17 interim agreement lifted the daily average to 20, still only one-fifth of normal traffic, before the US resumed its blockade on July 14 and traffic sank back to five per day. asserted
traffic → lift → day
Today, the strait remains, in effect, closed. asserted
strait → remain → effect
From July 15 to August 23, an average of about five vessels a day passed through, marking an almost 95 percent decrease from pre-war traffic levels. asserted
average → pass → levels
What little traffic remains consists mostly of tankers operating under naval escort or with their tracking systems switched off. asserted
systems → remain → escort
The map below shows how the number of vessels passing through the strait plummeted during the first four days of the war. asserted
number → show → war
Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz functioned as one shared waterway, with ships using standard shipping lanes mainly through the centre of the strait, supported by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). asserted
ships → function → Organization
These routes were chosen based on port schedules, contracts and safety. asserted
routes → choose → schedules
The little traffic now moving through the strait runs through a workaround, with the waterway split into two distinct paths after Iran and Oman agreed to temporary shipping routes, using their respective territorial waters to help vessels pass through. asserted
vessels → move → waters
Iranian authorities insist ships use its northern route, which runs along its coastline near Larak and Qeshm islands and connects directly to Iranian ports and terminals. asserted
which → insist → ports
But in April, the US military placed a naval blockade on Iranian ports to stop roughly two million barrels of Iranian oil from reaching the rest of the world. asserted
military → place → world
Which countries rely most on Middle East oil? asserted
countries → rely → oil
For people and businesses further down the chain, the disruption is being felt through the rising cost of essentials. asserted
disruption → feel → essentials
…and 26 more, not listed.
💬 Give feedback
🕘 History 🎫 Support