El Niño, a climate pattern caused by unusually warm Pacific waters, has intensified to "very strong" status, commonly called super El Nino, surpassing the 2°C temperature rise threshold in September 2026. Expected to peak early in 2027 and persist through March-May of that year, this phenomenon will bring heavier rainfall to East Africa, parts of South America, and the southern United States while causing drought in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, and Southern Africa. Specific impacts include a 90% chance of wetter conditions with up to 70% of annual rainfall in southern Ethiopia and Somalia by December, contrasted with below-average rainfall and wildfire risks in India, Indonesia, and Australia.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-16,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
A powerful El Nino is taking shape in the Pacific, and it is reshaping weather across the globe.
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it → take → globe
El Nino is a natural climate pattern caused by warmer-than-usual water in the central and eastern Pacific.
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Nino → cause → Pacific
Data from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released on September 14, 2026, shows El Nino has breached the temperature rise threshold of 2C (3.6F), thus becoming “very strong”, informally known as a super El Nino.
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Nino → release → Nino
This year’s El Nino began developing in June 2026 and is expected to peak by early 2027, with forecasters warning it could be one of the strongest ever recorded.
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it → develop → strongest
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects it to persist through March-May 2027.
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it → expect → May
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Nino happens every two to seven years.
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Nino → accord → Organization
It usually starts between March and June, peaks between November and February, and can last up to 18 months.
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It → start → months
How could El Nino affect your country?
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Nino → affect → country
A very strong El Nino tends to bring heavier rain to East Africa, South America and the southern US, drought to South Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia and Southern Africa, as well as warmer temperatures almost everywhere.
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Nino → tend → Asia
Select your country from the dropdown below to see where rainfall is likely to increase or decrease.
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rainfall → select → dropdown
Where could it rain more?
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it → rain → ?
El Nino typically brings heavier rain to East Africa, South America and the southern US.
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Nino → bring → Africa
East Africa is expecting heavier rain than usual between October and December.
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Africa → expect → October
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, based in Ngong, Kenya, puts the chance of wetter conditions in southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and northeastern Kenya at 90 percent.
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Centre → base → percent
These rains can supply up to 70 percent of the region’s annual rainfall, so heavier rain also means a higher risk of flooding.
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rain → supply → flooding
El Nino typically brings more rain to parts of South America and the southern US too, with wetter conditions expected along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru in early 2027, then spreading to southern Brazil, Uruguay and northeastern Argentina between September 2026 and January 2027.
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conditions → bring → September
Where could it turn drier?
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it → turn → ?
El Nino typically brings drier conditions to South Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia and Southern Africa.
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Nino → bring → Asia
India and Pakistan’s summer monsoon has fallen short.
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monsoon → fall → ?
Rainfall across India was 15 percent below average between June 1 and September 9, according to the India Meteorological Department.
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Rainfall → accord → Department
Indonesia faces a drier season and higher wildfire risk.
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Indonesia → face → season
Its meteorological agency, BMKG, recorded 5,019 hotspots by late July, with Sumatra and Kalimantan at the highest risk.
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Sumatra → record → risk
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology expects below-average rainfall across southern and eastern parts, with warmer temperatures raising the risk of wildfires.
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temperatures → expect → wildfires
The South African Weather Service expects below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most of the country through spring and summer.
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Service → expect → spring
How could El Nino affect food supplies?
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Nino → affect → supplies
The World Food Programme (WFP) warns that El Nino could push at least 49 million more people into acute hunger by the end of 2027.
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Nino → warn → 2027
That would raise the total across the 45 countries it analysed from 225 million to 274 million.
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it → raise → million
Eastern and Southern Africa and Latin America face the largest increases.
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Africa → face → increases
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization says maize, rice and other rain-fed crops are most at risk.
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maize → say → risk
Dry conditions threaten harvests from Southern Africa and the Sahel to South and Southeast Asia.
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conditions → threaten → Asia
“El Nino is a massive threat to the food security of millions who are already vulnerable,” said Carl Skau, WFP’s acting executive director.
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Skau → say → millions
Will El Nino make it hotter?
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it → make → ?
The phenomenon usually warms the planet, with the biggest effect felt the year after it develops.
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it → warm → planet
The WMO expects warmer-than-normal temperatures almost everywhere from September to November.
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WMO → expect → November
It also sees an 86 percent chance that at least one year between now and 2030 beats 2024 as the hottest on record.
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year → see → record
“There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, who led the forecast.
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who → be → forecast
El Nino’s biggest effect on North American winters comes through the jet stream – the fast, high-altitude winds that steer storms.
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that → come → storms
During El Nino, the strongest part of this jet shifts south and stretches farther east, pushing storms across the southern third of the continent.
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part → shift → continent
NOAA scientists call El Nino “the great snowfall suppressor” for most of the continent.
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scientists → call → continent
In past El Nino winters, snowfall dropped below average around the Great Lakes, interior New England, the northern Rockies, the Pacific Northwest, western Canada and Alaska.
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snowfall → drop → Lakes
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia
