Which races might predict a ‘blue wave’?
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races → predict → wave
Here’s what to watch
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watch → ’ → what
- House races in certain districts, including in Kentucky and Texas, could provide early clues about how the night will go.
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night → include → clues
- The House majority could become clear before the night is over.
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night → become → ?
- Control of the Senate could come down to a single race.
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Control → come → race
Americans are heading to the polls Tuesday in a historic set of midterm elections that will determine which party controls the chambers of Congress for the remainder of President Trump’s time in office.
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party → head → office
Democrats appear poised to make significant gains, with polling showing the party up between 7 and 11 points on the generic ballot.
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party → appear → ballot
Republicans are braced for losses but hoping to hang on to Senate control.
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Republicans → brace → control
The night’s big question is whether a true wave will materialize for Democrats and how sizable it might be — how many U.S. House seats the party can flip, whether it can secure a Senate majority and whether Democrats take control of a majority of governorships.
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Democrats → materialize → governorships
The first polls close at 3 p.m. PST in parts of Kentucky and Indiana, and more Eastern states follow at 4 p.m.
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states → close → p.m.
Here’s a rundown of the possible outcomes and what to watch as Tuesday unfolds.
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Tuesday → ’ → what
Who could control Congress?
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Who → control → Congress
Blue House, red Senate: Democrats could win a House majority — either substantial or modest — while Republicans retain the Senate.
Split control of Congress would give House Democrats the ability to launch investigations into the Trump administration and block Republican legislative priorities.
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control → win → priorities
Senate Republicans would be able to scuttle legislation coming out of the House and continue approving Cabinet and judicial appointments, including to any openings on the Supreme Court.
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Republicans → scuttle → Court
A larger “blue wave” could occur, sweeping up House seats for Democrats and tipping key Senate races in their favor to hand Democrats a majority in both chambers.
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wave → occur → chambers
The Senate majority would likely be very narrow and could come down to a single race.
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majority → come → race
Democrats would be able to block Senate confirmation of Cabinet and judicial appointments.
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Democrats → block → appointments
They would be able to pass legislation, but Trump would hold veto power and the Democrats would be unlikely to secure veto-proof majorities on partisan priorities.
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Democrats → pass → priorities
Most analysts agree there is very little chance that Republicans will keep House control.
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Republicans → agree → control
The potential for civic unrest looms over the election.
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potential → loom → election
If results in one or more races are contested by a losing party — as Trump and his allies have suggested is possible — the potential exists for prolonged uncertainty or a constitutional crisis.
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potential → contest → uncertainty
When will we know the outcome?
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we → know → outcome
The House majority could become clear before the night is over.
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night → become → ?
The Senate majority could require a longer wait, particularly if it comes down to Alaska, which along with Hawaii is the last state to close polls, at 9 p.m. PST.
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which → require → PST
If the Democrats take the House, their full margin of victory likely won’t be clear Tuesday night.
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margin → take → victory
Some key swing races are in states that have slower ballot counts, including California and Pennsylvania.
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that → have → California
If a blue wave does not materialize and the race for the House majority narrows, how each party makes out could take longer to ascertain.
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makes → materialize → majority
Which races will provide early clues?
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races → provide → clues
More than four dozen House races are competitive, including 18 that are considered tossups by election forecaster Cook Political Report.
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that → include → Report
The additional 35 races are considered competitive but leaning towards one party.
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races → consider → party
Whether additional, less competitive seats flip unexpectedly will be one indication of how much of a “wave” election this is.
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this → flip → election
Three more are potentially competitive: South Carolina, which leans Republican, and Minnesota and New Hampshire, which lean Democratic under Cook’s ratings.
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which → lean → ratings
North Carolina and Georgia, originally viewed as competitive seats, are now both seen by forecasters as fairly safe bets for Democrats.
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Carolina → view → Democrats
The swing states could largely tip for Republicans or for Democrats, or the majority could come down to just a single race.
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majority → tip → race
Experts say they’re watching a handful of races that could provide early indicators for how the night may go, though predictions are always dicey and outliers are possible.
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outliers → say → indicators
This Lexington-area U.S. House district has become an unexpected tossup, and with the nation’s earliest poll-closing time, it could be a bellwether.
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it → become → time
“If Democrats win that district, then it’s a Democratic tsunami,” said Christopher Warshaw, a Georgetown University public policy professor.
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Warshaw → win → district
“Even if it’s close, that would be pretty telling.”
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that → ’ → ?
Forecasters have shifted this race to a tossup amid a difficult environment for state Republicans.
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Forecasters → shift → Republicans
If Republicans lose this seat — which belonged to Rep. Ashley Hinson, the party’s Senate nominee — it could signal a blue wave on the bigger side.
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it → lose → side
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
