6 things to watch for on election night
It can be hard to know what to focus on in midterm elections.
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It → watch → elections
For a better idea of how the night might go to see which party might control Congress, here are six things to watch:
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things → go → Congress
The early bellwethers for Republican turnout and the Latino vote
There are two states, Indiana and Kentucky, that will see results in the 6 p.m. ET hour.
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that → be → hour
And then there's Florida, which is split between the Eastern and Central time zones.
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which → be → zones
So lots of House race results will be coming in during the 7 p.m. ET hour, even if statewide contests like the Senate and governors races won't be called at the earliest until 8 p.m. ET.
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contests → come → ET
Some races to watch for early indicators of what might come later in the evening — Indiana's 5th Congressional District, Kentucky's 6th and Florida's 22nd and 27th.
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what → watch → evening
Indiana's 5th and Kentucky's 6th are seats held by Republicans that are more competitive now than at the beginning of the cycle.
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that → hold → cycle
If these are close or tipping to Democrats, it could be a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave.
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it → tip → turnout
Florida's 22nd is held by a Democrat but redrawn to tip in Republicans' favor.
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22nd → hold → favor
Trump won Florida's 27th by double-digits so this heavily Latino district could be an indicator of how this key subgroup votes.
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subgroup → win → digits
Do Republicans get 46% with independents?
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Republicans → get → independents
It used to be that Republicans had to win a bigger share of independents before the Trump era.
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Republicans → use → era
Mitt Romney, for example, won 55% of independents in 2012 but lost the presidential election.
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Romney → win → election
But there's been a political realignment in this country with blue-collar white voters trending toward Trump, fewer people identifying as Democrats and better-educated white voters shifting toward Democrats.
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voters → be → Democrats
So in the decade since Trump has been on the political scene, Republicans have done well when they win at least 46% of independents.
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they → do → independents
When they haven't, they've lost.
3.
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they → lose → .
If Republicans flip it, the magic number for Democrats goes from four to five, meaning Democrats would have to win five seats held by Republicans to win control of the Senate.
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Democrats → flip → Senate
For Abdul El-Sayed (D) to win in Michigan, a key is going to be Black voters in Wayne County.
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key → win → County
If he runs up the score in and around Detroit, he has a path to victory, but if he doesn't, it becomes that much harder — and it's been an area of vulnerability for him.
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it → run → him
During the Trump era, Democrats have needed 68% or more in Wayne County to win Michigan unless, like Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024, they can overperform in the suburbs.
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they → need → suburbs
The margin with young voters
Voters 18 to 29 see a drastic drop off in turnout between presidential and midterm elections.
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Voters → see → elections
During presidential races since 1992, 43% of registered young voters cast ballots.
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% → register → ballots
But in midterms, that falls to 21%, just 1 in 5 who show up at the polls.
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who → fall → polls
In the last 20 years, when Democrats won this group by more than 20 points, they have done well, winning presidencies or making gains in midterms.
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they → win → midterms
The only exception was 2022, but arguably, the strong margin Democrats won with young voters that year, helped them stem what could have been a much larger Republican tide.
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what → win → voters
That year, Democrats lost nine House seats, but gained a Senate seat.
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Democrats → lose → seat
Democratic margin with voters 18-29, election result
2024 +11, Trump wins presidency
2022 +28, Republicans win House, Democrats gain Senate seat
2020 +25, Biden wins presidency
2018 +35, Democrats win House
2016 +19, Trump wins presidency
2014 +11, Republicans expand House majority, win Senate
2012 +23, Obama wins re-election
2010 +17, Republicans win House
2008 +34, Obama wins presidency
2006 +22, Democrats win House
5.
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Democrats → win → 5
Given past polling errors in Texas that underestimated the Republican vote, there's a healthy skepticism that Democrat James Talarico's margin of error lead in polling averages is enough to win.
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lead → give → averages
There was lots of enthusiasm in 2018 for Beto O'Rourke's (D) 2018 bid against an unpopular Republican senator in Ted Cruz, but Cruz still won, although by less than 3 percentage points.
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Cruz → be → points
No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and no Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Texas in 38 years.
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Democrat → win → years
For it to actually happen in this state Trump won by 14 points in 2024, two groups are key – Republicans and Latinos.
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groups → happen → 2024
Republican Gov. Greg Abbot is also facing a tight race, but he's thought to be in better shape than Paxton.
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he → face → Paxton
In 2018, Cruz won about 400,000 fewer votes than Abbott, but Cruz still won by more than 200,000 votes.
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Cruz → win → votes
So watch if the difference between Abbott and Paxton is more than 400,000 for Talarico.
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difference → watch → Talarico
The second part of Talarico's path to victory runs through South Texas.
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part → run → Texas
Statewide, O'Rourke won 64% of Latinos in 2018, and they were 26% of the electorate, according to exit polls.
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they → win → polls
If Talarico is north of both of those, that's how he wins the seat.
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he → win → seat
Talarico would need to improve on O'Rourke's totals in these Latino-heavy counties: Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51%.
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Talarico → need → counties
Because of the political realignment that's taken place in the Trump era, watch how people identify in exit polls.
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people → take → polls
The percentage of those saying they were Democrats hit a low in 2024 at 31%.
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they → say → %
…and 6 more, not listed.
The Aporia
