WASHINGTON (AP) — The 2026 midterm election is one of the biggest tests of Republican dominance in Texas — and Democrats’ best shot in decades at winning a key U.S. Senate seat in the state.
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election → win → state
Voters in the Lone Star state will cast ballots in a hotly contested U.S. Senate race and elect U.S. House representatives to districts newly redrawn to favor Republican candidates in contests that could be decisive in Democrats’ bid to retake control of Congress.
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that → cast → Congress
Voters will also elect a governor, state and local representatives and judges, and decide on ballot measures.
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Voters → elect → measures
Facing off in the race for Senate are Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s embattled attorney general and an ally of President Donald Trump.
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Talarico → face → Trump
Paxton beat out the seat’s incumbent of over two decades, Sen. John Cornyn, for the Republican nomination in a tight primary runoff race after Cornyn lost favor with the president and Paxton received Trump’s last-minute endorsement.
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Paxton → beat → endorsement
Trump’s support for Paxton, who has promised to champion the president’s priorities if he wins the election, has been both a crucial asset and a liability for the candidate.
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he → promise → candidate
The candidate’s website says he is “running to help President Trump finish the border wall” and states that he plans to help the president deport “criminal illegal aliens.”
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president → say → aliens
But Texas shares over 1,200 miles of border with Mexico, and the rising number of arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement risks alienating Latino voters, who make up over 30 percent of the state’s electorate.
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who → share → electorate
Talarico has stressed the need for border security but also called for legal immigration to be made easier, saying in campaign materials, “our border should be like a front porch — it should have a welcome mat out front and a lock on the door.”
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it → stress → door
Both candidates have made affordability central to their campaign messaging.
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affordability → make → messaging
Talarico has promised to cut taxes for the middle class, increase taxes on billionaires and repeal Trump’s tariffs on imports.
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Talarico → promise → imports
Paxton has said he plans to cut taxes, reduce federal spending and remove regulations on energy companies that harm the economy.
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that → say → economy
Trump carried Texas in the last three presidential elections, defeating Democratic nominee and former Vice President Kamala Harris by over 10 percentage points in 2024.
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Trump → carry → 2024
The state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.
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state → elect → 1988
Yet recent polls suggest a tight race.
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polls → suggest → race
The Texas race could become the most expensive Senate race in the country’s history.
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race → become → history
As of mid-October, Talarico had raised more than $146.3 million, eclipsing Paxton’s $22.3 million.
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Talarico → raise → million
But hundreds of millions more in independent expenditures have given Paxton the advantage in total spending.
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millions → give → spending
Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a Texas resident, gave $158 million to the Republican-supporting Senate Leadership PAC, which donated the same amount to Texas PAC, a group supporting Paxton.
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which → give → Paxton
Musk also gave $10 million to the Lone Star Liberty PAC, which supports Paxton.
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which → give → Paxton
Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is running for reelection against Eric Flores, a Republican and Army veteran endorsed by Trump.
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Gonzalez → run → Trump
In the 2024 election, Gonzalez won the district by a thin margin of less than 3 percentage points, and its boundaries were redrawn in 2025 to advantage Republicans.
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boundaries → win → Republicans
In a possible sign of growing wariness of associating with the president, Flores’ campaign appeared to remove a reference to Trump from a section of his website.
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campaign → grow → website
Democrats are hoping to reclaim Texas’s 15th Congressional District, an inland strip in the southern part of the state and the only part of the Rio Grande Valley represented by a Republican in the U.S. House.
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Democrats → hop → House
Monica De La Cruz, the incumbent Republican, is facing Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Tejano musician and political newcomer, in a newly redrawn version of the district that favors Republicans.
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that → face → Republicans
De La Cruz won her 2024 reelection by a margin of nearly 15 percentage points.
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Cruz → win → points
Another race that has become increasingly competitive is the Texas governor’s race between Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who has held office since 2015, and Democratic state House Rep. Gina Hinojosa.
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who → become → 2015
Texas has elected only Republican governors since 1994, and Trump endorsed Abbott.
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Trump → elect → Abbott
But the most recent polls show a tight race, making the current contest one of the most vulnerable in Abbott’s career.
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contest → show → career
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:
When do polls close?
Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET.
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which → monitor → p.m.
The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in races for U.S. Senate, governor, U.S. House, lieutenant governor, attorney general, state Supreme Court, state Senate, state House, agriculture commissioner, comptroller, appeals court judges, land commissioner, railroad commissioner and state Board of Education.
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Press → provide → Education
How many people voted in the last midterm election?
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people → vote → election
Over 8 million votes were cast in the 2022 race for governor in Texas.
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votes → cast → Texas
How much of the vote is cast by absentee ballot?
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much → cast → ballot
About 68% of all ballots cast in Texas’s 2022 race for governor were cast early or by absentee ballot.
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% → cast → ballot
The latest advance vote totals for Texas can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker.
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totals → find → tracker
When are early and absentee votes released?
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votes → release → ?
The vast majority of Texas’ counties are expected to release all or almost all of their early and absentee voting results in the first vote update of the night, in most cases before any in-person Election Day results are released.
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results → expect → person
How long does vote-counting usually take?
The first results of the 2024 election were reported starting at 8 p.m. ET on Nov. 5, 2024, as the first polls began to close.
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polls → take → Nov.
The state reached 50% of votes reporting at 8:29 p.m. ET, and 90% of votes reporting at 12:17 a.m. ET on Nov. 6, 2024.
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state → reach → Nov.
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
