With Senate majority up for grabs, candidates fight for ‘kingmaker’ voters
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asserted
candidates → fight → voters
Analysts predict that Democrats are on track for the House majority.
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Democrats → predict → majority
A Gallup poll found that 45% of American adults identify as political independents, a record high.
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% → find → independents
With the midterm elections just over three weeks away, the fight for control of the U.S. Senate is intensifying in battleground states, as Democrats push into red regions and Republicans pour money into key contests.
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Republicans → intensify → contests
Campaigns are entering a crucial stretch for persuading the independent voters who will probably determine outcomes in swing races.
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who → enter → races
Nearly all of the most competitive Senate races are in states with significant swaths of people unaffiliated with either major party — the “kingmakers” in these high-stakes midterms, said Jeremy Gruber, an independent-voting expert.
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Gruber → say → midterms
“Independent voters are going to be deciding this election in every respect,” said Gruber, senior vice president of Open Primaries, an organization that advocates for states to open primary elections to unaffiliated voters.
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states → go → voters
The urgency around courting nonaligned voters has been on display at recent debates, in ads flooding the airwaves and in the campaign money pouring into key states.
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urgency → court → states
For Republicans, it has become an effort to put distance between themselves and President Trump; for Democrats, it’s often a rhetorical shift toward the center and away from the far left.
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it → become → left
In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson used a Wednesday night debate to emphasize her willingness to break with Trump.
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Hinson → use → Trump
In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton is circulating a video in which he describes himself as both liberal and conservative.
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he → circulate → himself
In Alaska, a GOP-backed ad blitz launched last week aims to persuade voters that Democrat Mary Peltola isn’t independent-minded.
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Peltola → back → voters
Though many unaffiliated voters have made up their minds, those who remain undecided will begin making decisions soon, as mail ballots go out and early voting begins in some states.
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voting → make → states
“For Republicans who are running behind and are looking at a potentially devastating midterm election performance, what they really need to do is target the independents who lean Republican,” said Karen Kedrowski, an Iowa State University political scientist.
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Kedrowski → run → Republican
“For Democrats in some place like Iowa ... what they need to do is make it seem safe [to independents] to vote for a Democratic candidate.”
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it → need → candidate
Reflecting the complex electoral balance, most Republicans have attempted to separate themselves without naming any firm difference with the president.
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Republicans → reflect → president
Unaffiliated constituents have long been key to victory in swing states, particularly where races are traditionally decided by small margins.
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races → decide → margins
They have been viewed as particularly persuadable this year, as public dissatisfaction with Trump’s economic policies puts the votes of swing voters who backed him in 2024 up for grabs.
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who → view → grabs
Forecasters predict that Democrats are on track for the House majority and could hold a majority of gubernatorial seats for the first time since 2010.
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Democrats → predict → 2010
Though Senate control remains a toss-up, Democrats’ chances are viewed by forecasters to have significantly improved since the summer.
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chances → remain → summer
A set of New York Times/Siena polls reported last week showed Democratic candidates for the Senate ahead in Texas, Michigan, Alaska and Ohio and neck-and-neck in Kansas and Iowa — all states Trump carried in 2024.
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Trump → report → 2024
Republicans, meanwhile, are feeling increasingly bullish about their chances in Maine, New Hampshire and Minnesota, all states that went blue in the last presidential election.
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that → feel → election
Republicans hold a significant fundraising advantage, however, and party donors are pouring money into key races, hoping the spending can cut into the Democrats’ edge.
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spending → hold → edge
By September’s end, GOP advertisers had more than doubled their spending compared with August, outstripping Democrats, according to tracker AdImpact.
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advertisers → double → AdImpact
Among the nine Senate races considered the tightest by forecasters, Republicans have outspent Democrats in all, AdImpact reported.
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AdImpact → consider → Democrats
But on Friday, the Cook Political Report, a leading election forecaster, moved 18 House races in Democrats’ direction, saying that heavy ad spending by Republicans has not begun to move the needle in their favor.
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spending → lead → favor
Democrats view themselves as in their “strongest position yet” to win the majority, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement last week.
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who → view → statement
“In this final stretch of the election, Democrats will continue to vigorously campaign and fight for every vote across the expanded map,” Gillibrand said.
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Gillibrand → continue → map
Republicans are confident about their ability to persuade voters in key states, said Bernadette Breslin, a spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
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Breslin → persuade → Committee
“Republicans will defend the Senate majority across key battlegrounds that have trended reliably red,” Breslin said, “with candidates like Mike Rogers [in Michigan] and Roger Marshall [in Kansas] winning over independents by exposing their Democratic opponents’ radical, unaffordable agendas.”
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candidates → defend → agendas
Along with the decisions of independent and swing voters, the midterm outcomes could also hinge on the level of turnout within each party, analysts say.
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analysts → hinge → party
If a portion of the party faithful stay home in a given place — for instance, disillusioned conservatives in Kansas or frustrated Black Democrats in Michigan — that could swing individual races, analysts said.
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analysts → stay → races
The number of independent voters reached a record high this year, with 45% of American adults identifying as political independents in Gallup polling.
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% → reach → polling
The trend is partly driven by majorities of millennial and Gen Z voters choosing to be unaffiliated with either party, according to Gallup research.
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trend → drive → research
Such voters make up a majority in Alaska and between 30% and 40% of all registered voters in Maine, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio.
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voters → make → Maine
They account for about 29% in Kansas and about 16% in Texas and Michigan, according to state data compiled by the Independent Voter Project.
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They → account → Project
Across recent polls, independent voters have favored Democrats and expressed dissatisfaction with Trump.
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voters → favor → Trump
In a late September poll from Emerson College Polling, 66% of independents said Trump has done worse than expected during his second term in office.
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Trump → say → office
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton among independents by 32 points in a September poll by Texas Public Opinion Research.
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Talarico → lead → Research
The Democratic candidate in Ohio, Sherrod Brown, led Republican Sen. Jon Husted by 27 points among independents in a CNN poll released Thursday.
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candidate → lead → poll
…and 18 more, not listed.
The Aporia
