America’s most exciting and expensive midterms promise nail-biting finish
asserted
midterms → promise → finish
AI generated
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AI → generate → ?
The “midterm” elections feel like a misnomer.
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elections → feel → misnomer
Little about them feels intermediate, really.
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Little → feel → them
With more than 50 million early votes cast by Nov 1, the energy has matched a presidential year.
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energy → cast → year
Nervous attention is being paid to each new poll, the bubbling discontent counted and recounted: everything suggests a country preparing to pass judgment.
uncertain
everything → pay → judgment
The Democrats, defeated and dispirited just two years ago, are eyeing victories in races long conceded to the Republicans.
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Democrats → defeat → Republicans
Texas, South Carolina, Kansas, Iowa and Alaska – unassailably red until just weeks ago – now seem a hazy blue, within reach for a party still leaderless after Kamala Harris was bested in 2024.
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Harris → seem → 2024
At 80, President Donald Trump is driving himself with an effort that would be almost superhuman, if it were not also desperate.
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it → drive → effort
In the month leading up to the Nov 3 vote, he has addressed more than 25 rallies.
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he → lead → rallies
On the eve of the elections, he will address seven “tele-rallies” – virtual events – in a five-hour marathon.
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he → address → marathon
But are we looking at a blue wave?
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we → look → wave
It’s an imprecise term, but some pollsters define a wave election as one where the winning party takes the popular vote by around six points or more.
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party → ’ → points
The current RCP poll average – a poll of polls – puts the Democrats 8.5 points ahead in the generic ballot, a simple measure of which party voters want to see in Congress.
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voters → put → Congress
A nine-point win would make for a historic Democratic night; anything over a 10-point win has not been seen in the modern era.
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anything → make → era
There is another measure: how many seats change hands.
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seats → be → hands
The largest wave in recent times – a red tsunami – crested in 2010, the first midterms of the Barack Obama presidency.
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wave → crest → presidency
Back then, the Republicans gained 64 House seats and six Senate seats from the previous elections in 2008.
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Republicans → gain → 2008
The biggest blue wave came in 2018, the first midterms under a Trump administration, when Democrats won 41 additional House seats while ceding one in the Senate.
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Democrats → come → Senate
In the 35 seats up for grabs in the 100-member Senate which is split 53-47 now in favour of the Republicans, seven could decide control.
uncertain
seven → split → control
The final NYT/Siena poll of the season said the Democrats were ruling them all – Michigan, Kansas, Texas, Maine, Ohio and, more narrowly, Alaska and Iowa.
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Democrats → say → them
But the Cook Political Report, a well regarded reader of political trends, said both parties retain a viable path to majority.
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parties → regard → majority
It listed the same seven states as “toss-ups” while describing the Democrats as “slight favourites”.
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It → list → favourites
There’s a good chance that the control of the Senate could be clinched by a single seat.
uncertain
control → ’ → seat
In the House where 218 seats confer majority, Cook said that Democrats are favoured in 222 seats while 18 races are toss-ups.
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races → confer → seats
During travels over the last few weeks in states that chose Trump in 2024, including Pennsylvania, Ohio and Georgia, I met several voters whose unhappiness needed little prompting to find expression.
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unhappiness → choose → expression
“It’s changed for the better for him, for the worse for us,” said Tenedia Thomas, 68, a Democratic voter in the Republican stronghold of Lancaster county in Pennsylvania which Trump won in the 2024 elections.
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Trump → change → elections
The villain is inflation – especially in food, fuel and housing – that has swallowed wage gains for most households, and Trump’s Iran war that has driven up the price of diesel and upended supply chain economics across the agricultural heartland.
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that → swallow → heartland
“That’s nothing that we have to read in a newspaper,” said Thomas.
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Thomas → ’ → newspaper
“We can see how much money we’re now spending on groceries, how little we can buy.
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we → see → little
We’re living it.”
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We → live → it
The minimum wage in Pennsylvania remains at US$7.25 (S$9.30) an hour despite rising costs of daily necessities, she said.
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she → remain → necessities
“I consider myself poor, I live from pay cheque to pay cheque,” said Thomas.
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Thomas → consider → cheque
“I was just in a car accident, you can see my collarbone is protruding.
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collarbone → see → accident
I can’t take time off because I still have to pay bills and rent, because the handling of the economy is so bad that a 68-year-old woman has to work.”
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woman → take → economy
An hour’s drive away, in York county, which backed Trump by 25 points in 2024, John, who declined to give his full name, was mounting his own fightback.
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who → back → fightback
Standing at a downtown street corner, he swung a sign at passing motorists.
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he → stand → motorists
“Vote out every Republican,” it read.
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it → vote → Republican
He gave me his own poll.
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He → give → poll
“Two-thirds of them give me a thumbs-up, a third flip me the bird.”
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third → give → bird
…and 71 more, not listed.
The Aporia
