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US midterms: Six days left – who leads in the polls as Trump, Obama rally

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Al Jazeera Staff. (2026, October 28). US midterms: Six days left – who leads in the polls as Trump, Obama rally. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/28/us-midterms-six-days-left-who-leads-in-the-polls-as-trump-obama-rally?traffic_source=rss

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Al Jazeera · collected 2026-10-28 · by Al Jazeera Staff

Quick Summary

As the November 3 midterm elections approach in the United States, Democrats are leading Republicans by nine points according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from October 22-26. President Donald Trump is actively campaigning, holding rallies in Texas and planning another in Ohio, while former Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden support Democratic candidates. Key Senate races in states like Texas, Michigan, and Kansas are too close to call; for instance, in Texas, Democrat James Talarico is running neck-and-neck with Republican Ken Paxton despite Trump's strong presence there. Both parties have committed approximately $71 million to these elections.
Written by AI on 2026-10-30, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

With six days until the November 3 midterm elections in the United States, Democrats lead Republicans in national polls. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from October 22-26 shows that 47% of voters support Democrats compared to 36% for Republicans, with undecided voters tilting toward Democrats as well, giving them a 50% to 41% edge. President Donald Trump has intensified his campaign efforts, holding two Republican rallies in Texas and planning another one in Ohio. Meanwhile, former President Barack Obama and Vice President Kamala Harris are campaigning for the Democratic Party in Georgia.

Written for “US Midterm Elections Polls” on 2026-10-31, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
This article does not take a side on a contested political question, so it has no leaning score. That is an answer rather than a gap: a match report or a rescue can be warmly or critically written without being left or right, and scoring it anyway is how approval of a subject gets recorded as a political position.
No political leaning scored for article 111674 · logged 2026-10-30

Story

📰 US Midterm Elections Polls
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 17% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Independent
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 3 of 40 claims Outlet record 59/100
“The articles cover different aspects of the election campaign: Article A discusses overall national polls and rally activities, while Article B focuses specifically on Texas polls for statewide contests.”
The Hindu
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 42 claims Outlet record 77/100
“The articles describe different stages of the midterm election race - one around 10 days before the election, focusing on overall trends and challenges for Republicans, while the other is six days before with specific details about campaign activities.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans strongly left Hedges 2 of 17 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles describe different time periods within the larger context of the US midterm elections; Article A focuses on early voting data as of October 23, while Article B discusses the situation six days before the election on November 3.”
CBS News
⚖️ Centre Hedges 0 of 3 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles describe different days of campaigning with distinct locations and activities for Trump and Obama.”
TIME
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 8 of 48 claims Outlet record 59/100
“The articles discuss general polling trends for the midterms but describe different aspects of the ongoing political landscape, including separate updates on campaigning activities.”
NPR
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 4 of 94 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the upcoming midterm elections; one focuses on poll results indicating Democratic advantages with potential limitations, while the other reports on current campaign activities and close Senate races.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 2 of 25 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles describe general polling trends and campaigning activities for the midterms rather than a single specific incident.”
TIME
Hedges 6 of 57 claims Outlet record 59/100
“The articles cover different aspects of the midterm election period and do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
NPR
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 3 of 22 claims Outlet record 60/100
“Article A covers general campaign activities and poll standings six days before the election, while Article B focuses specifically on competitive House races and ad spending in the final week of the election.”
ABC News (US)
Hedges 0 of 1 claims Outlet record 70/100
“The articles refer to different stages of the campaign and voting process, with Article A focusing on rallies six days before the election and Article B discussing early voting numbers four days later.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
47
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
17%
8 of 47 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
60/100
Al Jazeera's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-30 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Al Jazeera · 4467 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Al Jazeera Staff
769 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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Topics

Democrats Republican Republicans Senate Texas

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 10× Republicans NORP · 8× Democrats NORP · 6× Republican NORP · 6× Senate ORG · 5× Texas GPE · 5× Democrat NORP · 3× Kansas GPE · 3× Al Jazeera’s ORG · 2× Donald Trump PERSON · 2×

Narrative

Four visits in seven weeks, which, to put that into context, is twice as many as we saw at the comparable period leading up to the 2024 election, which perhaps shows just how concerned Republicans are
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-30
🔮 I vote for who I think will do the best job.”

Claims (47 extracted, 8 hedged)

With six days to go before the November 3 midterm elections in the United States, Democrats are leading Republicans in national polls, but several key Senate races seem too close to call. asserted
races → go → polls
President Donald Trump has stepped up his campaigning, holding two Republican rallies in Texas on Tuesday before heading to Ohio on Wednesday. asserted
Trump → step → Wednesday
Ex-President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris are also hitting the campaign trail in Georgia for the Democratic Party. asserted
Obama → hit → Party
Recommended Stories list of 1 itemend of listHere is what the latest polls say, what happened on the campaign trail and what to expect on Wednesday. asserted
what → say → Wednesday
What do the latest polls suggest? asserted
polls → suggest → What
With less than a week to go before the midterms, a Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests the Democrats are ahead of the Republicans by nine points. uncertain
Democrats → go → points
According to the October 22-26 survey, 47 percent of voters support the Democrats, compared with 36 percent who support the Republicans. uncertain
who → accord → Republicans
When undecided voters’ leanings were taken into account, Democrats lead with 50 percent compared with Republicans’ 41 percent. asserted
Democrats → take → percent
Trump’s approval rating improved by a percentage point to 32 percent, with 73 percent of US adults saying the cost of living was going in the wrong direction. asserted
cost → improve → direction
In Texas, where Democrats have not won a Senate election since 1988, James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are virtually tied in the polls. asserted
Talarico → win → polls
Trump has made several trips to the state ahead of the midterms, but the polls indicate a much tighter race than the president has suggested. uncertain
president → make → race
“The good people of Texas have probably never seen so much of President Trump. asserted
people → see → Trump
Four visits in seven weeks, which, to put that into context, is twice as many as we saw at the comparable period leading up to the 2024 election, which perhaps shows just how concerned Republicans are asserted
Republicans → put → election
,” Al Jazeera’s Phil Lavelle said, reporting from the Texas coastal city of Corpus Christi. asserted
Lavelle → say → Christi
Lavelle said local analysis suggested more Republicans have voted early than Democrats, but Talarico has also been courting Republicans dissatisfied with Trump. uncertain
Talarico → say → Trump
“That doesn’t mean Republicans are voting for Republican candidates,” Lavelle said. asserted
Lavelle → mean → candidates
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are also competing in a closely contested Senate race. asserted
Sayed → compete → race
“I was a Republican forever, but I became an independent in the last two elections,” Michael Alexander, a Native American backing El-Sayed, told Al Jazeera. asserted
Alexander → become → Jazeera
“I don’t really vote for a party any more. asserted
I → vote → party
I vote for who I think will do the best job.” asserted
I → vote → job
Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, but Republican incumbent Roger Marshall now faces a close contest against Democrat Adam Hamilton. asserted
Marshall → elect → Hamilton
The race has brought Trump and his deputy, JD Vance, to the state. asserted
race → bring → state
“There’s a reason why we’re seeing not only US President Donald Trump but also Vice President JD Vance heading to Kansas because it’s actually in play,” Al Jazeera’s Patty Culhane said. asserted
Culhane → ’ → play
According to The Associated Press news agency, both parties and their allied groups have committed about $71m to campaign advertising in the Kansas race, making it the most expensive Senate contest in the state’s history. uncertain
it → accord → history
What happened in the US midterm campaigns over the past 24 hours? asserted
What → happen → hours
Trump addressed two campaign rallies in Texas on Tuesday in support of Paxton. asserted
Trump → address → Paxton
In Corpus Christi, Trump pointed to a tanker that he said was carrying one million barrels of Venezuelan oil and called it a win for his administration. asserted
he → point → administration
He also suggested the idea of making Venezuela the 51st US state. uncertain
Venezuela → suggest → idea
The Trump administration has signed an oil deal with Venezuela’s interim leader, Delcy Rodriguez, after abducting socialist President Nicolas Maduro in a military operation in January. asserted
administration → sign → January
Trump also announced plans to roll back the Biden-era restrictions on methane emissions from oil and gas production, stating that it would help bring down energy prices. asserted
it → announce → prices
Fuel prices have become a huge election issue as the US-Israel war on Iran continues. asserted
war → become → Iran
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also joined Trump for a rare campaign-trail appearance in Texas. asserted
Rubio → join → Texas
In Alaska, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski has backed Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for governor rather than Bernadette Wilson, the Trump-endorsed candidate. asserted
Murkowski → back → governor
Trump heads to Ohio on Wednesday for his third rally in the state this month, as Republicans try to defend a Senate seat being challenged by former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. asserted
Republicans → head → Brown
The US president is scheduled to speak in Chillicothe at 23:00 GMT. asserted
president → schedule → GMT
Republican Senator Jon Husted, who took over Vance’s seat when he became vice president, is facing Brown, who is seeking a return to the Senate after losing his seat in 2024. asserted
who → take → 2024
The two are in a closely contested race, with more than $400m spent or reserved for campaign advertising as of October 8, according to an Axios report. uncertain
m → contest → report
Republicans are particularly concerned in Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Iowa, where even a few percentage points for a third party could swing the outcome. uncertain
points → swing → outcome
Trump is scheduled to hold rallies in Ohio on Wednesday and Iowa on Sunday. asserted
Trump → schedule → Sunday
Vance will be in Kinston, North Carolina, campaigning for Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley, who is running against former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper. asserted
who → campaign → Cooper
…and 7 more, not listed.
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