Can Bibi Netanyahu hang on?
asserted
Netanyahu → hang → ?
Israel’s six-term prime minister faces a stiff challenge in Israel’s elections today.
asserted
minister → face → elections
Polls show the bloc led by Netanyahu’s Likud party neck and neck with the bloc led by former military chief Gadi Einsenkot’s Yashar party, and voters are turning out at levels not seen in Israel for half a century.
asserted
voters → show → century
Meanwhile, Yair Golan of the Democrats party faced an apparent assassination attempt at an election-day campaign stop just hours ago.
asserted
Golan → face → stop
We’re a week out from election day, and things continue to look good.
asserted
things → ’re → day
In fact, I’ve got to say, they’re looking a little bit better every day.
asserted
they → get → fact
The early vote—
[I INTERRUPT THIS NEWSLETTER TO KNOCK ON WOOD, TOSS SALT OVER MY SHOULDER, AND, YES, PULL ON MY EARLOBE (THAT ONE’S NEW TO ME, TOO, BUT APPARENTLY THEY DO THAT AS WELL IN SOME PARTS OF THE WORLD).
asserted
THEY → interrupt → WORLD
I DO THESE THINGS OF COURSE TO PREVENT BEING JINXED AND TO WARD OFF THE EVIL EYE AFTER MAKING SUCH A HOPEFUL OR CONFIDENT STATEMENT.
asserted
I → do → STATEMENT
I WANT TO ASSURE ANY AND ALL JEALOUS DEITIES READING THIS NEWSLETTER THAT I’M NOT TRYING TO BE PRESUMPTUOUS.
asserted
I → want → NEWSLETTER
I’M JUST TRYING TO TELL IT LIKE IT IS.
asserted
IT → try → IT
]
Anyway, as I was saying . . .
Insofar as one can read the entrails of the early vote—and more than 30 million Americans, roughly a quarter of the likely overall turnout, have already voted—they seem to confirm the polls, which continue to signal a big blue wave.
asserted
which → say → wave
For example, Reuters/Ipsos, which collected responses as recently as yesterday, has President Trump at 35 percent approval and 65 percent disapproval among registered voters, with 15 percent strongly approving and an astounding 53 percent strongly disapproving.
asserted
percent → collect → voters
Democrats lead the generic ballot among both registered and likely voters by 9 points.
asserted
Democrats → lead → points
And Democrats say they’re more enthusiastic about voting than Republicans.
asserted
they → say → Republicans
In the FiftyPlusOne polling average, the generic ballot now has Democrats ahead by 9.2 percent, up from 7.7 percent at the beginning of October, and 6.3 percent at the beginning of September.
asserted
Democrats → have → September
The trend remains Democrats’ friend, and the Republican spending onslaught hasn’t done much if anything to stop it.
asserted
onslaught → remain → it
Meanwhile, Trump’s election subversion schemes have so far proven ineffectual (which doesn’t mean we won’t see lots of desperate efforts over the next week, and then perhaps after the votes are counted).
asserted
votes → prove → week
And it’s hard to see any great surprise emerging in these last few days for the Republicans.
asserted
surprise → ’ → Republicans
[I INTERRUPT THIS NEWSLETTER ONCE AGAIN TO KNOCK WOOD, TOSS SALT, MUTTER HEARTFELT IMPRECATIONS TO THE GODS . . .
asserted
I → interrupt → GODS
So the House is almost certain to flip, and the Senate seems likely—I’d say very likely—to do so.
asserted
Senate → flip → ?
[WOOD KNOCKED, SALT TOSSED, IMPRECATIONS MUTTERED, ONCE AGAIN.
asserted
IMPRECATIONS → knock → ?
] Since 1954, there’ve only been two occasions on which both chambers have changed hands in a midterm election: 1994 and 2006.
asserted
chambers → change → election
The 2006 precedent could serve as something of a warning.
uncertain
precedent → serve → warning
That midterm wave was followed by a big Democratic presidential victory in 2008 and further congressional gains.
asserted
wave → follow → 2008
But the financial crisis of 2008 was so severe that the Obama administration had to spend an awful lot of time cleaning it up.
asserted
administration → have → it
The administration also made some political miscalculations.
asserted
administration → make → miscalculations
And the midterm elections of 2010 changed the country’s political momentum decisively.
asserted
elections → change → momentum
In an economic and geopolitical environment as fraught as the one we’re now in, it’s going to be a real challenge not just to follow up a midterm victory with a presidential electoral victory, but then to govern in a way that succeeds in actually reversing the nation’s course and changing the country significantly for the better.
asserted
that → ’re → better
As I suggested last week, the 1930–1932 sequence, which cleared the path for the New Deal, is probably the best precedent for that.
uncertain
which → suggest → that
“Hardly a man is now alive” who remembers that era.
asserted
who → remember → era
But that doesn’t mean we can’t learn lessons from it.
asserted
we → mean → it
So spend the next week obsessing over the reports from the various states and studying the polls and analyzing the early vote reports, and doing what you can to help to squeeze out every possible victory.
asserted
you → spend → victory
But you might also begin to pull out your books about FDR and the 1930s.
uncertain
you → begin → FDR
And you might want to take a look at an ever greater president, as well: Abraham Lincoln, who said in his second annual message to Congress, in December 1862:
The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present.
uncertain
dogmas → want → present
The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion.
asserted
we → pile → occasion
As our case is new, so we must think anew, and act anew.
asserted
we → think → ?
We must disenthrall ourselves, and then we shall save our country.
asserted
we → disenthrall → country
Next Tuesday, Democrats will likely be given a chance—
[KNOCK ON WOOD, TOSS SALT, PRAY TO THE GODS]
—to begin to save the country.
asserted
Democrats → give → country
To do so, they’ll have to learn from, even rise to, the examples of Roosevelt and Lincoln.
asserted
they → do → Roosevelt
Third Time’s the Charge
asserted
Time → ’ → ?
…and 62 more, not listed.
The Aporia
