“Any election that doesn’t go my way is fraud.”
asserted
that → go → ?
That’s the Trump model, and his right-wing allies around the world are starting to embrace it too.
asserted
allies → ’ → it
“The elections in the state of Israel were stolen by Arab parties that support terrorism and the elimination of the Jewish state,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted yesterday on X.
asserted
Netanyahu → steal → X.
“We demand from the police and the Shin Bet a thorough investigation into the election theft by the Arab parties and a full prosecution of the criminals.”
asserted
We → demand → criminals
Law enforcement, he said, “must act with an iron fist and in an immediate manner.”
asserted
he → say → manner
Not every such claim gets Trump’s blessing, however.
uncertain
claim → get → blessing
Brazil’s Flávio Bolsonaro, who fled the country after his own election loss this week, yesterday posted a letter thanking Trump and Argentinian president Javier Milei for helping him escape to the United States.
asserted
him → flee → States
In it, he declared himself the “true president-elect of Brazil.”
asserted
himself → declare → Brazil
But Trump immediately poured water on the claim: “I’m not going to make a comment about that,” he told reporters.
uncertain
he → pour → reporters
“I won’t get involved.”
asserted
I → involve → ?
Bolsonaro subsequently deleted the letter and reposted it, sans president-elect claim.
uncertain
Bolsonaro → delete → claim
It was the first World Series victory for the franchise, which came into existence as an expansion team in 1969.
asserted
which → come → 1969
A mere 57 years later (!), they took it all.
asserted
they → take → it
They pulled this off while playing in the league’s smallest media market, and with baseball’s nineteenth-biggest payroll.
And they did it impressively and decisively, defeating the Padres 3–1 in the division championship series, taking the league championship 4–0 over the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers, and then putting away Tampa Bay in the World Series 4 games to 1.
asserted
they → pull → 1
One might even call what happened this year a Brew Wave.
uncertain
what → call → ?
The Brewers’ talent and momentum overcame the obstacles of money and history.
asserted
talent → overcome → money
Speaking of omens, here’s another one.
asserted
one → speak → omens
A couple of hours before the first pitch last night, Donald Trump posted an announcement to Truth Social:
I’m going to be doing a major TeleRally for Julia Letlow, who is running for the U.S. Senate and is spectacular, and our fantastic Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, on Monday evening, LIVE.
The state where Julia Letlow is running for the Senate is Louisiana—which Trump won by a 22 percent margin just two years ago.
asserted
Trump → post → margin
This is a race where both national Democrats and Republicans have spent almost no money, assuming it couldn’t be competitive.
asserted
it → spend → money
But a poll a month ago (admittedly sponsored by the campaign of the Democratic nominee, Jamie Davis, but done by a very reputable pollster, Hart Research) showed a 4-point race.
asserted
poll → sponsor → race
And since then we’ve seen an early vote in Louisiana that is even more bullish for Davis.
asserted
that → see → Davis
(Lauren Egan reported yesterday on how encouraging the high early voting numbers in predominantly black areas are for Democrats.)
asserted
numbers → report → Democrats
Davis is a talented and hard-working—though underfunded—candidate.
asserted
Davis → work → ?
Letlow, by contrast, has been mailing it in, assuming that in the general election as in the primary, her “complete and total endorsement” by Donald Trump would carry her to victory.
asserted
endorsement → mail → victory
But the Hart poll showed Trump’s approval underwater in the state.
asserted
poll → show → state
And with Democrats now, I believe, on a path to victory in neighboring Texas, and with neighboring Mississippi on the other side clearly in play (Trump visited there Monday), the Louisiana alarm bells seem to have belatedly gone off.
asserted
bells → believe → play
But could it be like Tampa Bay’s rally to win the fourth game Sunday night and bring the Series to 3–1: too little, too late?
uncertain
it → win → 3–1
Just a word about the state of the race nationally: More than 40 million Americans have voted early, about one third of this year’s likely total turnout.
asserted
Americans → vote → turnout
Early voting is tricky to interpret, but I’d say that in general the early voting is even more bullish for Democrats than the polls.
asserted
voting → interpret → polls
The polls show a non-trivial number of voters persuaded this year to switch to the Democrats.
asserted
polls → show → Democrats
The early vote suggests a higher turnout among Democrats.
uncertain
vote → suggest → Democrats
This combination of persuasion and turnout is like having very good pitching and timely hitting.
asserted
combination → have → pitching
Throw in a little momentum, and you really can be off to the races.
asserted
you → throw → races
Which, for whatever it’s worth, I think the Democrats are.
asserted
Democrats → ’ → ?
But the real world goes on.
asserted
world → go → ?
Which leads me to the third news item from yesterday, an item that provides a reminder of what’s at stake.
asserted
what → lead → stake
As reported late yesterday in the Atlantic and then confirmed by the Pentagon, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has fired another general officer.
asserted
Hegseth → report → officer
Yesterday’s victim of Hegseth’s purge of our professional and nonpartisan military was the Pentagon’s acting chief planner, Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia.
asserted
victim → act → military
He was ousted from the important job of director of strategy, plans, and policy at the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the position known inside the military as the J5—a position which he had taken after its previous incumbent was also forced out by Hegseth.
asserted
incumbent → oust → Hegseth
We don’t know why Sylvia was dismissed after thirty-two years of distinguished service.
asserted
Sylvia → know → service
…and 52 more, not listed.
The Aporia
