Democrats have a sizable advantage in the battle for control of Congress days ahead of the midterm elections, a new national NBC News poll finds, with voters clamoring for change and voicing all-time high disapproval of President Donald Trump.
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voters → have → Trump
Registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress by a 7-point margin, with Democrats leading Republicans 52%-45% — 2 points more than in last month’s poll.
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Democrats → prefer → poll
That includes a 21-point lead among independents.
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That → include → independents
Three percent of voters remained undecided as the poll was conducted from Oct. 28 to Oct. 30, and how they shift in the final days could tilt the outcome in dead-heat House and Senate races around the country.
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shift → remain → country
While the overall poll suggests that Democrats are poised to capitalize on a well of dissatisfaction with the president and his policies, there are findings that complicate the favorable picture.
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that → suggest → picture
When it comes to which party better handles key issues, voters give Republicans and Democrats about even marks, and the Democratic Party remains deeply unpopular.
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Party → come → marks
Meanwhile, Republican voters in GOP-held districts and in states Trump won in 2024 are sticking with their party — notable because much of the battle for control of both the House and Senate runs through this red terrain.
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much → hold → terrain
The president’s disapproval rating has climbed to 60%, a new high mark across his two terms in the NBC News poll, and his approval rating stands at 40%.
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rating → climb → %
After Trump won a second term in 2024 promising to bring down prices and restore the economic conditions of his first term, roughly 3 in 4 voters head into the midterms dissatisfied with the state of the economy.
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voters → win → economy
Nearly two-thirds of voters are calling for a change from the direction in which Trump has been leading the country, with 50% calling for “a great deal” of change, a new high mark in NBC News polling data.
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% → call → data
And for the first time in 30 years of NBC News polling, more voters say they are dissatisfied with their financial situation (51%) than satisfied (49%).
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they → say → %
“The Trump presidency can be summarized as the promise of two years ago and the peril of two days from now,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
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who → summarize → Strategies
Horwitt noted Trump returned to the White House after promising economic prosperity and peace.
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Trump → note → prosperity
But now voters are expressing widespread concerns about the economy, with prices rising during the Iran war.
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prices → express → war
Amid those concerns, 64% of voters — including a third of Trump voters — say the president has fallen short of their expectations, with 34% saying he has lived up to them.
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he → include → them
Seventy percent of voters say the country is on the wrong track, a 9-point increase over the last year.
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country → say → year
Voters continue to rank inflation and the cost of living as the most important issues facing the country, followed by government corruption, threats to democracy and immigration and border security.
“Democrats are in total control of the 2026 issue agenda,” said McInturff, the Republican pollster, noting that only voters who think immigration is a top issue are breaking for his party right now.
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immigration → continue → party
Democrats have a 1-point advantage on which party would better control inflation, a slight decline from September but still a warning sign for the GOP, which led on the issue in 2024.
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which → have → 2024
Republicans have a 2-point advantage on the economy, a marked decline from the party’s double-digit advantage on the issue in recent years.
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Republicans → have → years
Voters are also signaling that they are fired up about the midterms, with 70% ranking themselves as a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale of interest in the election.
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% → signal → election
Democrats have a 12-point advantage among those most-engaged voters, while Republicans have a 2-point edge among voters who are less interested in the election.
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who → have → election
Self-described MAGA Republicans also say they’re significantly more interested in the election than Republicans who don’t identify with the MAGA wing, as Trump and his party push to turn out voters who typically sit out midterm elections.
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who → describe → elections
That dynamic could be one reason why Republicans have leaned into culture war arguments in key races, attacking Democrats on transgender issues.
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Republicans → lean → issues
The new poll shows a potential limitation of that strategy: Democrats have a 5-point advantage on the question of which party would better handle transgender issues, despite those Republican attacks.
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party → show → attacks
It’s not all good news for Democrats, and the poll contains fresh signs that a number of voters are pushing back on the GOP, as opposed to falling in love with the Democratic Party, which remains deeply unpopular.
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which → ’ → Party
Just 29% of voters view the Democratic Party positively, while 38% have positive views of the Republican Party.
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% → view → Party
Around half of voters have negative views of both parties.
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half → have → parties
Still, some voters who are wary of Democrats are still planning to support them this year.
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who → plan → them
“Republicans have proven that they are not to be trusted.
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they → prove → ?
So I would rather see the balance of power shift, than maintain one party’s control,” one poll respondent from Texas, who voted for Trump in 2024 and is supporting Democrats for Congress this year, said in an expanded response.
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who → see → response
“I don’t trust Republicans or Democrats, really,” the man added.
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man → trust → Republicans
Frustrations among voters like that man from Texas, who backed Trump in 2024 and typically backs Republicans, are dragging down the president and GOP candidates this year.
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who → back → president
Republicans are torn on whether the country is moving in the right direction (48%), or the wrong direction (43%).
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country → tear → direction
One year ago, Republicans said the country was going in the right direction, 75%-24%.
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country → say → direction
And 37% of Trump’s own party believe he’s fallen short of his promises.
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he → believe → promises
Trump still maintains an important hold on his base, with near-unanimous job approval (93%) among Republicans who say they support the “MAGA” movement.
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they → maintain → movement
But he’s slipped significantly with Republicans who don’t consider themselves part of the MAGA movement: 54% of them approve and 46% disapprove of his performance.
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% → slip → performance
Meanwhile, 20% of those non-MAGA Republicans say they prefer to see Democrats control Congress after this election.
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Democrats → say → election
The president has seen other important voting blocs drift away, too.
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blocs → see → ?
His net approval rating has dropped 18 points among white voters without college degrees compared to the first NBC News poll of his second term, in 2025.
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rating → drop → 2025
…and 26 more, not listed.
The Aporia
