These midterm races will decide who controls U.S. Congress for the rest of Trump's presidency
Democrats need net gains of 4 seats in Senate, 3 seats in House to flip power from Republicans
The most important elections in next Tuesday's U.S. midterms are in the handful of states and districts where polling suggests the Republicans and Democrats are locked in tight races.
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Republicans → decide → races
The Democratic Party needs a net gain of just three seats to take control of the 435-member House of Representatives, a target that polling analysis suggests is well within reach.
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analysis → need → reach
The far more difficult task for Democrats will be wresting control of the Senate from U.S. President Donald Trump's Republican Party.
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task → wrest → Party
To achieve a 51-49 Senate majority, Democrats need a net gain of four seats.
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Democrats → achieve → seats
That requires flipping at least two states Trump won by double digits in 2024, such as Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas or Kansas.
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Trump → require → Ohio
Here's a look at the pivotal races to watch in Tuesday's midterm elections.
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look → watch → elections
Maine
U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican representing Maine, speaks with gun shop owner Rick LaChapelle at a campaign stop in Lewiston, Me. on Oct. 21. (Robert F. Bukaty/The Associated Press)
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Collins → represent → Oct.
- Candidates: (R) Sen. Susan Collins vs. (D) Troy Jackson
Collins has held this seat for 30 years, even though Maine has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
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Maine → hold → 1988
Collins has kept winning elections by persuading enough Democrats that she gets results for Maine in Washington.
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she → keep → Washington
Most recently, she took credit for Trump's moves to exempt certain Canadian products used by Maine businesses from the crushing 50 per cent tariffs he'd imposed in late August.
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he → take → August
The question is whether Maine voters will punish Collins for being a Republican this time or reward her for the occasions when she stood up to Trump.
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she → punish → Trump
Her Democratic Party opponent is a former logger turned politician from a small town in northern Maine.
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opponent → turn → Maine
Jackson entered the race only in July after the original nominee, Graham Platner, stepped down amid allegations he had sexually assaulted a former partner.
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he → enter → partner
- Key issues: Trump's posture toward Canada has led to a sharp drop in Canadians crossing the border to visit Maine.
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Canadians → lead → Maine
His war in Iran triggered a 74 per cent jump in the price of furnace oil, which roughly half of all households in the state use to heat their homes.
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half → trigger → homes
Michigan
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is hoping to put U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war with Canada on the ballot in Michigan this November.
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Sayed → hop → Michigan
- Candidates: (D) Abdul El-Sayed vs (R) Mike Rogers
This seat was thrown open by incumbent Democrat Gary Peters' decision not to seek re-election.
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seat → throw → election
If Democrats can't hold Michigan, their path to a Senate majority becomes significantly tougher.
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path → hold → majority
El-Sayed is a medical doctor and staunch progressive who was born in the U.S. to Egyptian immigrant parents.
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who → bear → parents
Since winning the Democratic nomination in August, he has become a frequent target of Trump's attacks.
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he → win → attacks
Trump launched an Islamophobic rant against El-Sayed during a rally Sunday in the border town of Port Huron, Mich.
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Trump → launch → Huron
The president called him a "jihadist" and warned that a Democratic win would bring "hordes of jihadis to our shores, creating a nightmare of violence and terror.
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win → call → violence
Michigan Republican Senate candidate breaks with Trump on trade war
A Michigan Democrat wants to put Canada on the ballot during the midterms.
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Democrat → break → midterms
Are voters listening?
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voters → listen → ?
Rogers, a former FBI agent who served in the House for 14 years, has attempted to put some distance between himself and Trump on Canada-U.S. relations.
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who → serve → relations
He launched a new ad this month in which he said, "We need to end this tariff war now," while sitting in a sports bar with a Labatt beer.
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We → launch → beer
Trump's tariffs on Canadian products and the breakdown in trade talks are causing upheaval in the auto industry, Michigan's economic engine.
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tariffs → cause → industry
Michigan residents have faced higher tariff costs per household than any other state, according to a recent study by the National Taxpayers Union Foundation.
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residents → face → Foundation
Senate: Ohio
Trump listens as Republican Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio speaks at a campaign rally in Youngstown, Ohio on Oct. 12.
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Husted → listen → Oct.
- Candidates: (R) Sen. Jon Husted vs (D) Sherrod Brown
Husted was appointed to the seat in 2025 to replace JD Vance when Vance became Trump's vice-president.
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Vance → appoint → Vance
Before that, Husted had a lengthy career in state politics, holding elected office since 2001.
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Husted → have → 2001
Trump has recently commented frequently on the 59-year-old Husted's athletic physique, including at events outside of Ohio.
"I examined his ass," the president said at a rally in Kentucky on Oct. 17.
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president → comment → Oct.
"I then patted him on the shoulder, and it was like a piece of steel.
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it → pat → steel
I'm still recovering."
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I → recover → ?
Brown has been in politics for more than 50 years, first elected to the state legislature just before his 22nd birthday.
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Brown → elect → birthday
He held Ohio's other U.S. Senate seat from 2007 until losing his re-election bid in 2024.
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He → hold → 2024
In Ohio, Canada-U.S. trade war sparks anger and uncertainty
- Video
Data centre backlash is a problem for Trump’s Republicans
Brown has long advocated targeted tariffs to protect U.S. manufacturing jobs but has consistently criticized Trump's sweeping tariffs, including those on Canadian goods, as ineffective and inflationary.
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Brown → spark → goods
Ohio is a often considered a bellwether state, so the issues top of mind for voters there mirror those resonating across the country: the rising cost of living and whether Trump's war against Iran and his tariffs are to blame.
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war → consider → Iran
Concern over the spread of data centres is also emerging as a local issue that could affect the statewide race.
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that → emerge → race
Texas
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, right, greets a supporter at a campaign rally in Allen, Tex. on Oct. 19.
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Paxton → greet → Oct.
…and 53 more, not listed.
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