Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats in November’s midterm elections to take control of the United States Senate from Republicans, as voter discontent with President Donald Trump, the Iran war, and rising prices heighten the races in once-safe Republican states.
asserted
discontent → need → states
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, and a Democratic takeover seemed highly unlikely at the start of the year – before the US launched its war on Iran.
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US → hold → Iran
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voting → reveal → elections
polls expose vulnerabilities in US elections ahead of midterms
Here are the key races that could decide the control of the Senate:
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that → expose → Senate
Alaska
Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is seeking re-election against Democratic former US Representative Mary Peltola and an independent candidate who shares Sullivan’s name.
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who → seek → name
Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, allowing voters to rank candidates in order of preference.
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voters → use → preference
Four candidates are on the ballot, including Sullivan, Peltola and another Dan Sullivan, a candidate Republicans accuse Democrats of recruiting deliberately to confuse voters.
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Republicans → include → voters
Total election fraud,” Trump said.
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Trump → say → ?
Peltola has rejected the accusations, saying the dispute is distracting from voters’ concerns.
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dispute → reject → concerns
“I feel like this is yet another diversion from the issue that Alaskans want to talk about, which is affordability,” she explained.
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she → feel → that
Peltola has raised $33m in October, compared with nearly $14m for Sullivan.
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Peltola → raise → Sullivan
Republicans have also spent more on the race, $42m compared with $38m by Democrats.
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Republicans → spend → Democrats
Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024, but recent opinion polls suggest Peltola narrowly leading over Sullivan.
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Peltola → win → Sullivan
Iowa has been a Republican stronghold in recent elections, with Trump winning the state by 13 points in 2024.
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Trump → win → 2024
But his declining popularity, trade tariffs and the Iran war have put Republicans on the defence in Iowa.
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popularity → decline → Iowa
The state’s agricultural economy has been hit hard by trade tariffs as well as rising fuel and fertiliser costs as a result of the strained oil supplies amid the Iran war.
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economy → hit → war
Republican US Senator Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek re-election has left an open-seat contest between Republican US Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medallist.
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decision → seek → Hinson
Republican Hinson has called for an “immediate end” to the Iran war and said Iowans should not have to pay higher fuel or grocery prices as a result of it.
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Iowans → call → it
However, according to Politifact, Hinson has voted against six resolutions seeking to end US involvement in the Iran war.
uncertain
Hinson → accord → war
Turek has outraised Hinson $20m to $14m, but recent polls show Hinson with a narrow lead.
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polls → outraise → lead
Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, but rising farming costs, opposition to Trump’s immigration crackdown and discontent over the Iran war have made this year’s race unexpectedly competitive.
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race → elect → war
Trump won the state by 16 percentage points in 2024.
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Trump → win → 2024
Republican Senator Roger Marshall is facing Democrat Adam Hamilton, the founding pastor of a Methodist megachurch.
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Marshall → face → megachurch
The race has drawn attention from Republican leaders, with both Trump and Vice President JD Vance campaigning in the state.
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Trump → draw → state
Agriculture is central to Kansas’s economy, and farmers have struggled with rising diesel and fertiliser prices as a result of the Iran war.
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farmers → struggle → war
Many have also expressed frustration with Trump’s tariffs.
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Many → express → tariffs
Immigration has become another major issue.
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Immigration → become → ?
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids in southwest Kansas have disrupted businesses.
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raids → disrupt → businesses
Even Republican Marshall has criticised aspects of the agency’s operations in his state.
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Marshall → criticise → state
Democrat Hamilton has outraised Marshall, $14m to $6m.
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Hamilton → outraise → 6
Democratic groups have also outspent Republicans in Kansas, $28m to $22m.
Recent polls show Hamilton narrowly ahead.
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Hamilton → outspent → Kansas
Maine
Maine is one of the Democrats’ biggest opportunities to gain a Senate seat, as Republican Senator Susan Collins faces a close re-election battle in a state which voted against Donald Trump in 2024.
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which → gain → 2024
Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson, a former Maine Senate president who entered the race in July after the party’s original nominee, Graham Platner, withdrew following sexual assault allegations, which he denied.
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he → face → which
Collins has sought to distance herself from Trump, acknowledging during a debate earlier this month that she was not the president’s favourite senator and that he would not be campaigning in Maine.
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he → seek → Maine
She was among the Republicans who voted to convict Trump following his impeachment over the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol.
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who → vote → Capitol
Democrats say Collins only votes against Trump when it doesn’t matter, however.
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it → say → Trump
Democrats also hope voters will hold her accountable for helping confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court, which led to the overturning of a federal right to abortion.
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which → hope → abortion
Jackson has faced criticism over his treatment of women, including his refusal to apologise for telling Collins to “shut up” during a debate.
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Jackson → face → debate
Jackson has outraised Collins, bringing in about $26.9m compared with $25.2m through mid-October.
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Jackson → outraise → October
Republican groups have also outspent Democrats, $76m to $40m.
Recent polls show a close race.
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polls → outspent → race
…and 42 more, not listed.
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