Which candidates for Senate are in a better position to help their state and, by extension, their citizens in the six years ahead?
asserted
candidates → help → years
This is the question voters in every state with a contested Senate seat should ask themselves before they vote between now and the close of voting Tuesday.
asserted
they → contest → voting
Example number one is Maine, where Senator Susan Collins is matched against Troy Jackson.
asserted
Collins → match → Jackson
Jackson is the man picked by Maine’s Democratic Party — not the voters — after Graham Platner crashed, burned and withdrew from the race on July 10.
asserted
Platner → pick → July
The party’s state committee picked Jackson even though he had finished third in the Democratic governor’s primary the same day Platner won his primary.
asserted
Platner → pick → primary
Polls rate the Maine race as a toss-up, but polls at the close in 2020 had Collins behind by at least four percentage points, and she in fact won by more than 8%.
asserted
she → rate → %
Maine voters are unlikely to surrender the seniority Collins holds — she is chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee — for a rookie who would rank tied for last in the currency that matters the most in the Senate: the incumbent’s years served in the body.
asserted
that → surrender → body
Add to that reality the fact that every Mainer seems to know the senator at least in passing and that communities across the state have benefited from the influence she has accumulated over more than 10,000 consecutive roll call votes, and Collins is poised to win.
asserted
Collins → add → votes
In South Carolina, Sen. Darline Graham has been serving since her brother Lindsey died.
asserted
brother → serve → Carolina
That gives her a leg up on new senators elected this year, and in a state that went for Donald Trump by 18% in 2024, it’s very likely Graham will return for a full six-year term.
asserted
Graham → give → term
As a member of the majority, he’s in a position to deliver more for the Buckeye State than the recycled Democrat Sherrod Brown, who was ousted by Ohio voters two years ago after collecting government paychecks for almost 50 years.
asserted
who → ’ → years
Brown’s very liberal career lost touch with an Ohio electorate that went for Trump in 2024 by more than 11 points.
asserted
that → lose → points
Husted is the best candidate to deliver for Ohio.
asserted
Husted → deliver → Ohio
In Michigan, either Republican Mike Rogers or Democrat Abdul El-Sayed would be a freshman senator, but El-Sayed’s white-hot radicalism will put him in a corner of the Senate that is empty except for Bernie Sanders.
asserted
that → put → Sanders
Expect Rogers to receive a warm welcome from the Senate GOP, which is eyeing Michigan as a battleground state in the 2028 presidential election.
asserted
which → expect → election
There’s a reason why most contenders for the GOP nomination have been to Michigan to lend Rogers a hand.
asserted
contenders → ’ → hand
That's also true for Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who seems to have been everywhere this election cycle helping everyone (as a prospective candidate for the presidency does).
asserted
candidate → seem → presidency
Cruz was in Alaska on October 17 to give an assist to Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is a two-term incumbent with enormous ability to deliver for Alaskans.
asserted
who → give → Alaskans
Democratic nominee Mary Peltola, by contrast, would be a freshman in the minority party if, as I expect, the GOP retains the majority.
asserted
GOP → expect → majority
That’s a terrible trade and one that it is doubtful most Alaskans want to make.
asserted
Alaskans → ’ → that
President Trump’s campaign trip to Alaska — rare for a sitting president — was intended to juice turnout there and to focus attention on the dirty tricks at work up north.
asserted
trip → sit → work
A second "decoy" Dan Sullivan was planted on the four-choice ballot in the hopes of draining even a few votes from the real Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s weird ranked-choice voting scheme.
asserted
decoy → plant → scheme
The real Dan Sullivan, the retired Marine Corps colonel on the Armed Services Committee with great seniority, is asking all voters, "Don’t rank Mary," to counteract the trickery.
asserted
Sullivan → ask → trickery
The electorate’s about a quarter of a million people.
asserted
electorate → ’ → ?
It’s a savvy bunch because the federal government matters so much in our 49th state.
asserted
government → ’ → state
Expect the real Sen. Dan Sullivan to pull through.
asserted
Sullivan → expect → ?
President Trump won Alaska by more than 13% in 2024.
asserted
Trump → win → 2024
He also won Texas and Iowa by more than 13%, which tells us that while Sen. Sullivan’s seniority will help him, even first-time candidates Ken Paxton in Texas and Ashley Hinson in Iowa should prevail against Democratic first-time nominees in both states, even in the "tough environment" of a president’s sixth year in office.
asserted
candidates → win → office
President Trump has been to both states this week to energize the base.
asserted
Trump → energize → base
Whatever the polls say — and polls say both races are toss-ups — Paxton and Hinson appear to be in good shape and rising in the polls, and both would be joining a majority in the Senate, not the minority with vastly diminished powers.
asserted
both → say → powers
Kansas went for Donald Trump by more than 16% two years ago.
asserted
Kansas → go → %
Its farmers have been hit hard by the high cost of diesel, but they know Sen. Roger Marshall has the seniority to help on the "Ag Bill" and deliver relief for the state.
asserted
Marshall → hit → state
The nice pastor running against the nice Dr. Marshall doesn’t.
asserted
pastor → run → Marshall
Which brings us finally to Minnesota, which is a deep blue state but one that nominated a far-far-to-the-left Democratic candidate in Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, whose eight years in that state job coincided with the massive fraud scandals in Minnesota and soaring violence among gangs of Somali-American youths.
asserted
years → bring → youths
The Democratic Farmer-Labor Party decided to go way left even as the GOP nominated the sparkling political "Rookie of the Year" in Michele Tafoya.
asserted
GOP → decide → Tafoya
Michigan might have the most-watched race because there’s never been an extremist like El-Sayed so close to winning a Senate race before, but the biggest upset could come in Minnesota, with Gopher State voters returning to the tradition of sending their occasional Republican to the Senate.
uncertain
voters → have → Senate
American polling is as broken as Israeli polling, which just face-planted in Israel’s elections Tuesday.
asserted
which → plant → elections
(Prime Minister Netanyahu emerged with the largest party and the largest coalition, which very few, if any, major polls saw coming.)
asserted
Netanyahu → emerge → party
Trusting polls to place bets on the prediction markets for American Senate races is as foolish as using the Farmers’ Almanac to plan your vacation in an El Niño year.
asserted
polls → trust → year
The enormous advantage of seniority plus the record amount and pace of campaigning by President Trump don’t combine to leave the GOP anxiety-free.
asserted
advantage → combine → GOP
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
