Photo via Al Jazeera

US midterms: 4 days to go – What the polls say as Trump cancels two rallies

Read the original at Al Jazeera ↗
Cite

Melimopoulos, E. (2026, October 30). US midterms: 4 days to go – What the polls say as Trump cancels two rallies. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/30/us-midterms-4-days-to-go-what-the-polls-say-as-trump-cancels-two-rallies?traffic_source=rss

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

Al Jazeera · collected 2026-10-30 · by Elizabeth Melimopoulos

Quick Summary

As US midterm elections approach in four days, national polls show Democrats leading Republicans by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent according to RealClearPolling. Professor Charles Franklin attributes this lead to President Trump's declining approval ratings and economic concerns. Additionally, a legal dispute in Alaska may delay the Senate race result due to confusion over two candidates with identical names.
Written by AI on 2026-10-30, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

On October 29, 2026, US President Donald Trump canceled his appearance at a campaign rally in Salina, Kansas, scheduled for the following day. This was his only planned public event before the midterm elections on November 3rd. Instead of attending the rally to support embattled Republican Senator Roger Marshall, who is facing a tough re-election bid against Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton, Trump opted to participate via virtual rallies from Mar-a-Lago in Florida. The decision came after a reporter asked if he was "sick of travel," prompting Trump to lash out, saying the reporter looked like "hell" and calling him "disgusting." Additionally, Trump canceled a planned rally in Iowa, with his Republican allies stating that virtual rallies would replace these appearances across the country.

Written for “Trump Cancels Midterm Rallies” on 2026-10-30, grounded in this article and the 14 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.45, but all 3 of its quote(s) are attributed speech - words the article quotes from someone, not the article's own narration, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 116662: attributed speech only · logged 2026-10-30

Story

📰 Trump Cancels Midterm Rallies
Politics · 15 article(s) covering the same event. Compare every outlet's account →

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 13% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Straits Times
Hedges 0 of 16 claims Outlet record 68/100
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 4 of 42 claims Outlet record 60/100
National Post
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 0 of 12 claims Outlet record 60/100
NBC News
Hedges 0 of 17 claims Outlet record 60/100
ABC News (US)
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 4 of 35 claims Outlet record 70/100
“Article A describes Trump's campaign rallies in red states, while Article B reports on Trump canceling two rallies and campaigning by phone instead.”
Washington Examiner
Hedges 0 of 3 claims Outlet record 70/100
“The articles describe different stages of the midterm elections campaign, with distinct dates and details about rallies.”
ABC News (AU)
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 4 of 35 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles describe different activities by Trump on separate days leading up to the midterms, not a single identical incident.”
The Independent
Hedges 1 of 22 claims Outlet record 59/100
“Article A specifically mentions Trump canceling a rally in Kansas, while Article B states that Trump canceled two rallies but does not specify both were in Kansas.”
The Straits Times
Hedges 0 of 15 claims Outlet record 68/100
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
61
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
13%
8 of 61 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
60/100
Al Jazeera's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
15
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-30 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Al Jazeera · 4411 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Elizabeth Melimopoulos
6 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Only 16 percent of respondents said they were better off financially than a year ago, while 42 percent said they were worse off and another 42 percent said things were about the same. “Democrats are more enthusiastic and more certain they will vote,” Franklin told Al Jazeera.
🔮 “Rather than having the tariffs bring down deficits like he said he would, we’re now running a debt to the tune of $40 trillion.” In particular, he singled out Trump’s ongoing dispute with Canada, one of the US’s largest trading partners.
🔮 “We need everybody and young people are a huge part of the coalition and could really be the difference-maker on November 3rd,” Will Lawrence, a Democratic candidate hoping to win Michigan’s 7th Congressional District from the Republicans, told Al Jazeera.
🔮 Alaska’s Supreme Court has already ruled that both candidates may remain on the ballot.
🔮 So what does the ad show, why has it sparked controversy and could it affect Ohio’s governor’s race?
🔮 While no deaths have been confirmed, authorities say it will take time to assess the full extent of the damage as search teams begin entering the hardest-hit areas.
Also by Elizabeth Melimopoulos
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 6 articles by Elizabeth Melimopoulos →

Topics

Alaska Democrats Republican Republicans Senate

Subjects

Republican NORP · 7× Trump PERSON · 7× Alaska GPE · 6× Senate ORG · 5× Democrats NORP · 4× Democrat NORP · 3× Al Jazeera ORG · 2× Franklin PERSON · 2× Republicans NORP · 2× United States GPE · 1×

Narrative

Only 16 percent of respondents said they were better off financially than a year ago, while 42 percent said they were worse off and another 42 percent said things were about the same. “Democrats are more enthusiastic and more certain they will vote,” Franklin told Al Jazeera.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-30
🔮 Only 16 percent of respondents said they were better off financially than a year ago, while 42 percent said they were worse off and another 42 percent said things were about the same. “Democrats are more enthusiastic and more certain they will vote,” Franklin told Al Jazeera.

Claims (61 extracted, 8 hedged)

With four days to go before the United States midterm elections, Democrats are leading in national polls as both parties make their final push for votes. asserted
parties → go → votes
Meanwhile, a legal dispute threatens to delay the Senate result in Alaska, and President Donald Trump has cancelled two weekend rallies in favour of campaigning by phone. asserted
Trump → threaten → phone
US midterms approach, farmers decide what to plant and how to vote - list 3 of asserted
farmers → approach → ?
3Trump administration renews bid to block Alaska election results Here’s what you need to know. asserted
you → renew → what
What do the latest US midterm polls say? asserted
polls → say → What
Democrats lead Republicans by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent, according to RealClearPolling, with a difference of 8.2 percentage points. uncertain
Democrats → lead → points
Charles Franklin, professor of law and public policy and director of the Marquette Law School Poll in the US, said Trump’s declining approval ratings and economic concerns are alarming Republicans. asserted
ratings → say → Republicans
The latest Marquette Law School poll, conducted in Wisconsin from October 14 to October 22 and released on October 28, put Trump’s approval rating at 37 percent and disapproval at 61 percent. asserted
poll → conduct → percent
Only 16 percent of respondents said they were better off financially than a year ago, while 42 percent said they were worse off and another 42 percent said things were about the same. “Democrats are more enthusiastic and more certain they will vote,” Franklin told Al Jazeera. asserted
Franklin → say → Jazeera
“That is giving Democrats an important edge, and reflects Republican disappointment in current national conditions,” he added. asserted
he → give → conditions
In Arizona, where voters are experiencing increasing living expenses, a retiree told Al Jazeera that the cost of groceries had become a major concern. asserted
cost → experience → groceries
“We’re retired, and every time we go to the grocery store, it makes me wonder what the heck is going on,” the voter said. asserted
voter → retire → store
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is polling at 49 percent against Republican Ken Paxton’s 43 percent, according to a CNN survey released on Thursday. uncertain
Talarico → poll → Thursday
In Michigan, the same pollster found Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers, 49 percent to 42 percent. asserted
Sayed → find → Rogers
However, Franklin warned: “Polls are not perfect predictions of outcomes. asserted
Polls → warn → outcomes
“We could see those close races go either way, either due to polling errors or due to voters moving just a little more in one direction or the other.” uncertain
voters → see → direction
In Alaska, however, there is also a complication: a legal dispute that could delay the result of a Senate race. uncertain
that → be → race
What is happening in Alaska’s Senate race? asserted
What → happen → race
The battle for Alaska’s seat could continue in court after ballots close on November 3. uncertain
ballots → continue → November
The dispute centres on two candidates named Dan Sullivan: the incumbent Republican senator and an independent candidate with the same name, who is also registered as a Republican. asserted
who → centre → Republican
Trump has accused Democrats of recruiting an independent candidate to confuse voters and take support away from the Republican senator. asserted
Trump → accuse → senator
Total election fraud,” Trump said. asserted
Trump → say → ?
The Justice Department has taken legal action over the dispute, while Democrat Mary Peltola denied the accusations. “I feel like this is yet another diversion from the issue that Alaskans want to talk about, which is affordability,” she said. asserted
she → take → that
Al Jazeera’s US correspondent Alan Fisher said the dispute could have consequences beyond Alaska if the Senate’s control depends on the result. uncertain
control → say → result
“If this becomes the key seat in the battle for the Senate, we might not actually know who has control there for several days, maybe even weeks after November 3,” Fisher said. uncertain
Fisher → become → November
What has happened on the campaign trail in the past 24 hours? asserted
What → happen → hours
Trump travelled to South Carolina to campaign for Republican senator Darline Graham – sister of the late Lindsey Graham – who is running against Annie Andrews in a closely contested race. asserted
who → travel → race
In Rock Hill, Trump encouraged voters to cast their ballots and cautioned his supporters not to take the election outcome for granted. asserted
Trump → encourage → outcome
About Graham, Trump said that she was in the lead but that he still had to campaign there. asserted
he → say → lead
“In politics you never know, right? asserted
you → know → politics
So you got to get out and vote.” asserted
you → got → ?
He also addressed his supporters directly and asked the crowd to pretend that he was on the ballot. asserted
he → address → ballot
“And I am on the ballot because all of these things that we’ve done, all of these incredible successes that we have,” he added. asserted
he → do → that
In Texas, Vice President JD Vance attended a rally in Weatherford, near Dallas, alongside Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, as Republicans called on supporters to vote. asserted
Republicans → attend → supporters
“Texas ain’t surrendering. asserted
Texas → surrender → ?
Texas is not becoming California. asserted
Texas → become → ?
It’s going to stay Texas, ain’t that right?” Vance told supporters. asserted
Vance → go → supporters
Well-known Democrats have also joined the campaign trail. asserted
Democrats → know → trail
On Wednesday, former President Barack Obama gave a speech in Georgia supporting Senator Jon Ossoff, criticising Trump’s management of the economy and his approach to the war with Iran. asserted
Obama → give → Iran
When Al Jazeera asked about Obama’s visit, Ossoff’s Republican opponent, Mike Collins, said it showed “the desperation of Jon Ossoff because he knows he’s losing”. asserted
he → ask → Ossoff
…and 21 more, not listed.
💬Give feedback
🕘History 🎫Support