The Israeli elections have, at least for now, produced a deadlock, with neither the pro nor anti-Benjamin Netanyahu blocs able to form a majority in their own right.
asserted
blocs → produce → right
The latest results show Netanyahu’s bloc winning 54, the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot on 47 and the Arab parties on 19.
asserted
bloc → show → 19
The key number is to reach at least a 61-seat parliamentary majority, although it is technically possible to govern in minority.
asserted
it → reach → minority
What happens once the votes are counted?
asserted
votes → happen → ?
Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult all the party leaders to inquire who they could support as prime minister.
uncertain
they → consult → minister
Based on these discussions, he will give one of the party leaders a chance to form a governing coalition.
asserted
he → base → coalition
This is expected to be Netanyahu, given his Likud party has easily won the most seats in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament.
asserted
party → expect → Knesset
In 2021 Naftali Bennett became prime minister despite winning only seven seats in the elections.
asserted
Bennett → become → elections
The president’s chosen candidate will have 28 days, and an additional 14 days if they ask for it, to form a government.
asserted
they → choose → government
If not, then someone else will be given a chance.
asserted
someone → give → chance
Seats in the Knesset, are allocated by proportional representation to national party lists, with parties needing to pass a threshold of 3.25 per cent of the national vote to secure seats.
asserted
parties → allocate → seats
About a dozen parties are widely thought to have a chance of crossing the threshold, so the final tally and seat allocation will take time.
asserted
tally → think → time
- Netanyahu convinces at least one of the opposition parties to cross over and support his government, allowing him to reach a parliamentary majority.
asserted
him → convince → majority
For example, he could ask Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party to serve in a national unity government alongside him.
uncertain
he → ask → him
He could also look to find potential defectors from within the opposition parties to help him reach a majority.
uncertain
He → look → majority
- Eisenkot tries to form a minority government reliant on the support of the Arab parties.
asserted
Eisenkot → try → parties
Given his bloc has fallen far short of a majority, this would create an unwieldy government prone to collapse.
asserted
this → give → collapse
The positions of the Joint List – a collection of far-left Arab parties including the remnants of the Communist Party – on the Israeli-Palestinian issue in particular sit well outside the mainstream of Jewish public opinion in Israel.
asserted
positions → include → Israel
If no one can command a majority then Israelis will have to return to vote again.
asserted
Israelis → command → majority
Netanyahu will remain in power as prime minister in the interim period.
asserted
Netanyahu → remain → period
Herzog, however, has said he is not keen to put Israelis through another round of elections.
asserted
he → say → elections
What are the key players saying?
asserted
players → say → What
In his speech to supporters after polling booths closed, Netanyahu said: “The right-wing bloc has a clear, decisive majority among the Zionist public, among the Jewish public and all those who support the state.”
asserted
who → close → state
For this reason, he said Israelis “need a right-wing, national, strong government.
asserted
Israelis → say → government
That’s what has to be done.”
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what → ’ → ?
As yet, he has shown no sign of abandoning his ultra-Orthodox and far-right coalition members.
asserted
he → show → members
Left-wing Democrats leader Yair Golan implored the opposition to form a government with the support of the Arab parties.
asserted
Golan → implore → parties
“Anyone who tries to erase the voices of Arab citizens is surrendering to Netanyahu and giving up on Israel,” he said on social media.
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he → try → media
“We have a majority.
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We → have → majority
We have responsibility.
asserted
We → have → responsibility
And we have an opportunity to form a government of change in partnership with Israel’s Arab citizens.
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we → have → citizens
A government that will serve all Israeli citizens
asserted
that → serve → citizens
Eisenkot vowed to do “everything to fulfil the people’s will,” saying that calling another election would be “a mistake”.
asserted
calling → vow → election
He said he would “do everything in my power to build a Zionist, pro-IDF [Israeli Defence Forces] enlistment government”, while warning Netanyahu not to play with national security for political gain.
United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas said: “If we join a government of change, we will be able to see substantial changes, not just empty talk.”
How would another round of elections work?
asserted
round → say → elections
What happened in the 2019-2022 period could be a guide to Israel’s immediate future.
uncertain
happened → happen → future
When Israelis voted in April 2019, Netanyahu’s Likud party and the Blue and White alliance led by former military chief Benny Gantz finished tied on 35 seats each.
asserted
party → vote → seats
Neither could form a majority so Netanyahu remained as prime minister until Israelis voted again in September.
uncertain
Israelis → form → September
Again, the results were virtually a tie, so Israelis headed to the polls again in March 2020.
asserted
Israelis → head → March
This time Gantz agreed to a power-sharing arrangement, but he was never able to take up the prime ministership because the Knesset was dissolved before he had a chance.
asserted
he → agree → chance
At the March 2021 elections, Likud was again easily the biggest party but opposition leaders Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett cobbled together a governing majority with the support of the United Arab List.
asserted
leaders → cobble → List
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
