These voters could hold the key to Netanyahu’s demise. Why are they being shunned?

Read the original at The Sydney Morning Herald ↗
Cite

Knott, M. (2026, October 27). These voters could hold the key to Netanyahu’s demise. Why are they being shunned? The Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/these-voters-could-hold-the-key-to-netanyahu-s-demise-why-are-they-being-shunned-20261027-p618av.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

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The Sydney Morning Herald · collected 2026-10-27 · by Matthew Knott
Content note This article describes violence described in detail.

Quick Summary

Watfa Jebali’s son Saad was murdered in Israel’s Arab town Tayibe in November 2018, leading her to join the Mothers for Life group advocating against violence. The article highlights the sharp rise in Arab-Israeli murder rates; from 74 deaths in 2018 to a record high of 241 last year. With Arab citizens comprising only 20% of Israel’s population but accounting for 80% of its murder victims, the piece critiques Prime Minister Netanyahu’s appointment of Itamar Ben-Gvir as national security minister and his policies contributing to increased gun violence. The article also notes that despite this critical issue, many Arab-Israeli citizens are choosing not to vote in elections.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-27, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

As of October 27, 2026, Netanyahu faces a potential political downfall due to the growing dissatisfaction among Arab voters. In November 2018, Watfa Jebali’s son Saad was shot dead by an unknown assailant in Tayibe, an Arab town near the Israeli-West Bank border, during a dispute over an apartment rental. Two suspects were arrested and convicted months later. Following her son's murder, Jebali co-founded "Mothers for Life," a group advocating for stricter crime reduction measures in Israel’s Arab communities. Despite their efforts and gaining national attention in 2020 by walking from Haifa to Jerusalem, the problem of violent crimes in Arab towns has worsened since then, contributing to the current political tension over Netanyahu's leadership.

Written for “Netanyahu's Political Challenges” on 2026-10-28, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans strongly left (beta estimate) Confidence high 1 quote(s) discarded as not found in the article
Leaning: leans strongly left for article 109409 (high confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-10-27

Story

📰 Netanyahu's Political Challenges
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

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How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
99
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
1%
1 of 99 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans strongly left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
61/100
The Sydney Morning Herald's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-27 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Sydney Morning Herald · 5220 article(s) · 12 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 12 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Matthew Knott
28 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 To their dismay, the problem has only worsened in the years since.
🔮 “God willing, we will stay here until the government will take this settlement and put it into Gaza,” says Chaim, a member of the controversial Nachala settler organisation led by Daniella Weiss, known as the godmother of the Israeli settler movement.
🔮 The message was as subtle as a slap in the face: vote for me or armageddon will follow.
🔮 But Rahamim would regularly cross into Gaza to buy jewellery, eat hummus and catch up with Palestinian friends, including some who attended his wedding.
🔮 As blazing sunlight streams through the glass windows of Ehud Barak’s office, the former Israeli prime minister paints a dark portrait of what could unfold as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to vote next Tuesday.
🔮 He said the party would support providing military aid to Ukraine if it were backed by the United Nations Security Council, but critics have noted Russia would inevitably use its veto power to block any such move.
🔮 US President Donald Trump has made a stunning late intervention in Israel’s elections, endorsing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a move the veteran leader hopes could allow him to remain in office.
🔮 In this bastion of progressive Zionism, there is hope that maybe, just maybe, Israelis will reject Benjamin Netanyahu on October 27.
🔮 His opponents are determined to consign him to history and start what they say will be a new era in Israeli politics.
🔮 Vice Admiral Matt Buckley said all bathrooms on the navy’s fleet of vessels would be inspected to ensure no other service members were exposed to a similar breach of privacy.
Also by Matthew Knott
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 28 articles by Matthew Knott →

Topics

Arab Arab-Israeli Israel Israeli Tayibe

Subjects

Arab NORP · 9× Israel GPE · 9× Israeli NORP · 6× Jebali PERSON · 5× Arab-Israeli NORP · 3× Qalansawe PERSON · 2× Saad PERSON · 2× the West Bank GPE · 2× Tayibe GPE · 1× Watfa Jebali’s PERSON · 1×

Narrative

Eisenkot has declared that no Arab or ultra-Orthodox party currently meets his criteria for joining his government, including supporting Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, endorsing universal conscription and recognising Hamas as a terror group that must be destroyed.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-27
🔮 To their dismay, the problem has only worsened in the years since.
2026-10-27 · The Sydney Morning Herald
These voters could hold the key to Netanyahu’s demise. Why are they being shunned? · assertive framing

Claims (99 extracted, 1 hedged)

They were the 30 seconds that changed Watfa Jebali’s life forever. asserted
that → change → life
The 30 seconds that still haunt her dreams. asserted
that → haunt → dreams
In November 2018, Jebali and her husband were preparing to celebrate their wedding anniversary at their home in Tayibe, an Arab town in Israel near the border with the West Bank. asserted
Jebali → prepare → Bank
Jebali’s son Saad, 26, was working in the family grocery store downstairs when a masked man walked in, shot him dead and ran away. asserted
man → work → him
Jebali watched the murder unfold in real time on the family’s closed-circuit television set. asserted
murder → watch → set
“It was all over in 30 seconds,” she says. asserted
she → say → seconds
Saad left behind a wife and six-month-old daughter. asserted
Saad → leave → wife
According to Israeli police, the murder stemmed from a dispute with the killer’s family over a rental apartment the Jebalis had asked them to vacate. uncertain
Jebalis → accord → them
Three months after the shooting, two men, aged 18 and 19, were charged with murder and were later sent to jail. asserted
men → age → jail
Determined to prevent other mothers from suffering the same fate, Jebali helped found a group of grieving mothers demanding action from authorities to reduce violent crime in Israel’s Arab communities. asserted
Jebali → prevent → communities
The Mothers for Life gained national attention here in 2020 when they walked for six days from Haifa, in northern Israel, to the Israeli president’s residence in Jerusalem to bring attention to the issue. asserted
they → gain → issue
To their dismay, the problem has only worsened in the years since. asserted
problem → worsen → years
Saad Jebali was one of 74 Arab-Israeli citizens murdered in 2018. asserted
Jebali → murder → 2018
That figure soared to 241 last year, an all-time high. asserted
figure → soar → 241
Arab-Israelis – many of whom identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel – make up 20 per cent of Israel’s population, but 80 per cent of the country’s murder victims. asserted
many → identify → victims
The vast majority of killings involve Arab perpetrators and victims, with many murders linked to gang violence, racketeering, family feuds and entrenched disadvantage. asserted
murders → involve → violence
The Arab-Israeli murder rate doubled within a year when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appointed far-right agitator Itamar Ben-Gvir as national security minister after Israel’s last elections in 2022. asserted
Netanyahu → double → 2022
In his youth, Ben-Gvir was convicted of incitement to racism and supporting a terror organisation when he brandished signs at a protest rally calling for Arabs to be expelled from Israel. asserted
Arabs → convict → Israel
For the last four years, he has run Israel’s police force and prison system. asserted
he → run → force
One of his signature policies has been a dramatic expansion of gun ownership, a move that has allowed firearms to flood the black market. asserted
firearms → allow → market
“We have nobody to talk to in this government. asserted
We → have → government
We are desperate,” Jebali says. asserted
Jebali → say → ?
“We live in Israel, we are citizens of this country, but no one is helping us. asserted
one → live → us
‘We are suffering in the Arab society because of the fascist ministers.’Mohammed, history teacher, Qalansawe While the Arab-Israeli murder rate is far higher than for Israeli Jews, the voter turnout rate is far lower. asserted
rate → suffer → Jews
In the last election, just 53 per cent of Arab citizens voted compared with a national average of 70 per cent. asserted
cent → vote → cent
Some decline to vote on principle, on the grounds they do not want to legitimise the Israeli government, while others stay home because of apathy and disillusionment. asserted
others → decline → apathy
That is expected to change when Israelis vote on Tuesday (Israeli time) because of Arab voters’ pent-up fury at the most right-wing government in Israeli history. asserted
Israelis → expect → history
Pollsters and campaigners estimate Arab turnout will reach 65 per cent, and perhaps as high as 70 per cent. asserted
turnout → estimate → cent
Buying fresh bread for his family at a bakery in Qalansawe, one of the towns that comprise “The Triangle”, a concentration of Arab-Israeli towns on the border of the West Bank, history teacher Mohammed says: “I never used to vote, but this time I will.” asserted
I → buy → Bank
“We are suffering in the Arab society because of the fascist ministers,” he says. asserted
he → suffer → ministers
“Crime families control the area and no-one is stopping them. asserted
one → control → them
At night people are afraid to leave their homes. asserted
people → leave → homes
It didn’t use to be this way.” asserted
It → use → ?
Making falafels at his restaurant a few doors down, Omar Abu Rass, 41, says he has only voted once before, but is considering doing so this time. asserted
he → make → restaurant
His relatives are pleading with him to cast a ballot, telling him this is not a normal election. asserted
this → plead → him
“There is a lot of shootings, a lot of murders,” he says. asserted
he → be → murders
“The police are not doing what they are supposed to do. asserted
they → do → what
Ben-Gvir is deliberately trying to hurt us. asserted
Gvir → try → us
The two main Arab groupings are the Joint List (a far-left alliance opposed to Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories) and Ra’am (a socially conservative, more pragmatic party that made history by forming part of a short-lived government in 2021). asserted
that → oppose → 2021
In what looks to be a canny move, Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has put former top police officer Yoav Segalovitz second on his list — the first time a Jewish Israeli has run for an Arab party. asserted
Israeli → look → party
…and 59 more, not listed.
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