What comes next?
asserted
What → come → ?
Israel's election has produced a political deadlock, leaving neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, with a clear path to forming a government.
asserted
election → produce → government
The final results give opposition parties more seats than Netanyahu's right-wing bloc.
asserted
results → give → bloc
But Eisenkot, a center-right former military chief of staff, cannot reach a governing majority without the support of predominantly Arab parties — an option Eisenkot's allies repeatedly ruled out during the campaign.
asserted
allies → reach → campaign
Netanyahu's Likud party received the most votes, but his bloc also falls short of a majority.
asserted
bloc → receive → majority
The coalition of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that supported his previous government does not control the 61 seats required for a majority in Israel's 120-seat parliament, known as the Knesset.
asserted
that → support → Knesset
Here is what happens next and the possible paths to a new Israeli government.
asserted
happens → happen → government
How does Israel form a government?
asserted
Israel → form → government
In the next few days, Israel's president will consult with the leaders of every party elected to parliament.
asserted
president → consult → parliament
Each party will recommend the party leader it believes should be given the first opportunity to form a coalition.
asserted
it → recommend → coalition
The president is not required to choose the leader of the largest party.
asserted
president → require → party
Instead, the president selects the candidate considered most likely to assemble a governing coalition.
asserted
president → select → coalition
That candidate is given 28 days to secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers.
asserted
candidate → give → lawmakers
The president may grant an extension of up to 14 days.
uncertain
president → grant → days
If the effort fails, the president can give another candidate an opportunity to form a government.
asserted
president → fail → government
The process could take weeks, or months, or end without anyone assembling a majority.
Who is most likely to get the first opportunity to form a coalition?
uncertain
Who → take → coalition
Based on the election results, Eisenkot appears more likely than Netanyahu to receive the largest number of recommendations from newly elected lawmakers.
asserted
Eisenkot → base → lawmakers
But that does not mean Eisenkot — a relative newcomer to politics — will be able to form a coalition.
asserted
Eisenkot → mean → coalition
His political bloc lacks a majority without the Arab-led parties and he has repeatedly promised not to form a coalition that depends on their support.
asserted
that → lack → support
They represent 21% of the population, who generally refer to themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel.
asserted
who → represent → Israel
Eisenkot has said the Arab parties' positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza prevent him from governing with them — some have refused to endorse the military goal of eliminating Hamas, or condemning it as a terrorist organization.
asserted
some → say → organization
Other leaders in his bloc made similar statements before and after the election.
asserted
leaders → make → election
Netanyahu faces a different version of the same problem.
asserted
Netanyahu → face → problem
His traditional coalition partners do not have enough seats to return him to power.
asserted
partners → have → power
One possibility is a unity government bringing together Netanyahu and Eisenkot.
Israeli and some U.S. media outlets have reported that President Trump favors such an outcome — although NPR has not independently confirmed the reports.
asserted
NPR → bring → reports
A unity government would likely include more moderate parties from Israel's political center and right.
asserted
government → include → center
Such a coalition could make it easier for Israel to work with the Trump administration on its regional priorities, including the reconstruction of Gaza and a potential normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia.
uncertain
Israel → make → Arabia
But Eisenkot has repeatedly pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu.
asserted
Eisenkot → pledge → Netanyahu
The two leaders would also have to resolve questions about who would serve as prime minister and whether the position would rotate between them.
asserted
position → have → them
A second possibility is an Eisenkot government supported by Arab parties.
asserted
possibility → support → parties
Together, Eisenkot's bloc and the Arab parties would command a comfortable parliamentary majority of more than 67 seats.
asserted
bloc → command → seats
But such a coalition remains unlikely because Eisenkot and his allies have repeatedly rejected it.
asserted
Eisenkot → remain → it
Support from the Arab parties would not necessarily require them to join the government.
asserted
Support → require → government
They could support a minority government from outside the coalition.
uncertain
They → support → coalition
But that arrangement would still contradict the campaign promises made by Eisenkot and several of his potential partners.
asserted
arrangement → contradict → partners
Israel's president has urged political leaders to avoid sending the country back to the polls, particularly after an election that drew the highest turnout in decades.
asserted
that → urge → decades
But if no candidate can assemble a majority, another election remains possible.
asserted
election → assemble → majority
Netanyahu may believe a repeat election could work in his favor.
uncertain
election → believe → favor
Arab turnout could decline if Arab voters conclude that the predominantly Jewish opposition parties will not allow their representatives to participate in government.
uncertain
representatives → decline → government
Liberal Israelis who traveled from overseas to vote in this election may also be less likely to return for another vote.
uncertain
who → travel → vote
…and 22 more, not listed.
The Aporia
