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‘We need Bibi’: How Netanyahu defied the polls

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Knott, M. (2026, October 30). ‘We need Bibi’: How Netanyahu defied the polls. The Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/we-need-bibi-how-netanyahu-defied-the-polls-20261031-p619l5.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

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The Sydney Morning Herald · collected 2026-10-30 · by Matthew Knott

Quick Summary

Aviv Bushinsky, a former media advisor to Benjamin Netanyahu, reflects on Netanyahu’s political resilience following a recent Israeli election. Despite polls predicting defeat for Netanyahu's Likud party, it secured 53 seats in the Knesset, narrowly outperforming the opposition bloc. This outcome shocked both Bushinsky and many Israeli pollsters, highlighting significant discrepancies between pre-election predictions and actual voter behavior.
Written by AI on 2026-10-30, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Benjamin Netanyahu defied pre-election polls and secured another term as Israel's prime minister despite controversies surrounding his leadership, including his failure to prevent a massacre in October 2023 and ongoing issues with military drafts of ultra-Orthodox Jews. Aviv Bushinsky, a former media advisor to Netanyahu, recalls the ex-prime minister’s determination during a political hiatus after losing power in 1999, stating, "OK, now we are working on our comeback." This resolve led to Netanyahu's successful return to politics, serving multiple terms and maintaining a strong base of support among many Israelis. Netanyahu has been in power for nearly all of the last decade, showcasing his political resilience despite significant challenges.

Written for “Netanyahu Defies Polls” on 2026-10-31, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
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The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans right (beta estimate) Confidence high 1 quote(s) discarded as not found in the article
Leaning: leans right for article 118035 (high confidence, 3 verified quotes) · logged 2026-10-30

Story

📰 Netanyahu Defies Polls
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

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Claims extracted
81
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
4%
3 of 81 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
61/100
The Sydney Morning Herald's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-30 · how these are computed

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Publisher

The Sydney Morning Herald · 5607 article(s) · 15 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 15 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Matthew Knott
30 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 “He’s a huge fighter, he will never bend down.”
2026-10-30 · assertive framing · ‘We need Bibi’: How Netanyahu defied the polls
🔮 The Joint List parties have not traditionally sought to join Israeli governing coalitions on the grounds that it would be wrong to provide legitimacy to the Israeli government until the occupation of the Palestinian territories in the West Bank and Gaza ends.
🔮 To their dismay, the problem has only worsened in the years since.
🔮 “God willing, we will stay here until the government will take this settlement and put it into Gaza,” says Chaim, a member of the controversial Nachala settler organisation led by Daniella Weiss, known as the godmother of the Israeli settler movement.
🔮 The message was as subtle as a slap in the face: vote for me or armageddon will follow.
🔮 But Rahamim would regularly cross into Gaza to buy jewellery, eat hummus and catch up with Palestinian friends, including some who attended his wedding.
🔮 As blazing sunlight streams through the glass windows of Ehud Barak’s office, the former Israeli prime minister paints a dark portrait of what could unfold as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to vote next Tuesday.
🔮 He said the party would support providing military aid to Ukraine if it were backed by the United Nations Security Council, but critics have noted Russia would inevitably use its veto power to block any such move.
🔮 US President Donald Trump has made a stunning late intervention in Israel’s elections, endorsing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a move the veteran leader hopes could allow him to remain in office.
🔮 In this bastion of progressive Zionism, there is hope that maybe, just maybe, Israelis will reject Benjamin Netanyahu on October 27.
Also by Matthew Knott
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 30 articles by Matthew Knott →

Topics

Israel Israeli Jerusalem Labor Tel Aviv

Subjects

Netanyahu PERSON · 16× Bushinsky PERSON · 8× Israel GPE · 4× Israeli NORP · 4× Likud ORG · 3× Labor ORG · 2× Tel Aviv GPE · 2× Aviv Bushinsky PERSON · 1× Benjamin Netanyahu PERSON · 1× Ehud Barak PERSON · 1×

Narrative

More substantially, Bushinsky says he was stunned that so many Israelis stood by Netanyahu despite his failure to prevent the October 7, 2023, massacre, his inability to resolve the issue of drafting the ultra-Orthodox refusing to serve in the military, and revelations that top staff members were on Qatar’s payroll while working for him.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-30
🔮 “He’s a huge fighter, he will never bend down.”
2026-10-30 · The Sydney Morning Herald
‘We need Bibi’: How Netanyahu defied the polls · assertive framing

Claims (81 extracted, 3 hedged)

When Aviv Bushinsky thinks of a moment that defines Benjamin Netanyahu, he thinks back to a day just before the dawn of the new millennium. asserted
he → think → millennium
Bushinsky, a well-known former Israeli radio journalist, had worked as a media adviser for Netanyahu during his ill-fated first term as prime minister, which began in 1996. asserted
which → know → 1996
After Netanyahu was thrashed by Labor’s Ehud Barak in 1999, he quit parliament rather than stay on in opposition. asserted
he → thrash → opposition
The political career of Israel’s youngest prime minister looked to be over at age 49. asserted
career → look → age
While helping Netanyahu transition to civilian life by unpacking books at his private office in Jerusalem, Bushinsky remembers Netanyahu turning to him and saying: “OK, now we are working on our comeback.” asserted
we → help → comeback
“We worked on the comeback for two years – we called it the new Bibi campaign – and it worked. asserted
it → work → it
It really worked,” Bushinsky told this masthead during an interview in Tel Aviv in the lead-up to this week’s Israeli elections. asserted
Bushinsky → work → elections
Netanyahu quickly returned to politics, serving as foreign minister, finance minister and opposition leader before returning to the prime ministership in 2009. asserted
Netanyahu → return → 2009
“He’s a hell of a campaigner,” Bushinsky said. asserted
Bushinsky → ’ → campaigner
“He’s a huge fighter, he will never bend down.” asserted
he → ’ → ?
Although Netanyahu’s polls looked grim ahead of Tuesday’s elections, Bushinsky was not writing off the possibility of his former boss remaining in office. asserted
boss → look → office
Even so, he admits he was stunned by Netanyahu’s performance on election night. asserted
he → admit → night
Not only did his conservative Likud party easily win the most seats in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, but his right-wing bloc outperformed the opposition “change” bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. asserted
bloc → win → Eisenkot
With 99 per cent of the vote counted, Netanyahu and his allies secured 53 seats, ahead of the main opposition’s bloc of 48, but short of the 61-seat majority needed to rule without further backing. asserted
Netanyahu → count → backing
Israel’s two Arab party groupings are projected to win an unprecedented 19 seats. asserted
groupings → project → seats
The opinion surveys by three of Israel’s main television networks – Channels 11, 12 and 13 – had shown Eisenkot’s Yashar party winning the most seats and the change bloc outperforming Netanyahu’s. asserted
bloc → show → Netanyahu
While negotiations to form a government still have a long way to go, Netanyahu remains the prime minister throughout the process, which could take weeks, if not months. “I was totally caught by surprise,” Bushinsky said after election day. uncertain
Bushinsky → form → day
The systemic undercounting of Netanyahu’s support – a more glaring polling error than the one that occurred before US President Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the 2016 election – is already prompting soul-searching and public apologies from Israeli media outlets. asserted
that → occur → outlets
More substantially, Bushinsky says he was stunned that so many Israelis stood by Netanyahu despite his failure to prevent the October 7, 2023, massacre, his inability to resolve the issue of drafting the ultra-Orthodox refusing to serve in the military, and revelations that top staff members were on Qatar’s payroll while working for him. asserted
members → say → him
Hamas remains in power in much of Gaza and Hezbollah has not been dismantled in Lebanon. asserted
Hezbollah → remain → Lebanon
Yet remarkably few voters abandoned the Likud for right-wing alternatives, let alone the more centrist opposition bloc trying to unseat him. asserted
voters → abandon → him
To be sure, Netanyahu’s party went backwards from the last elections in 2022, but the swing against him was far less than expected. asserted
swing → go → him
“It was not a clear-cut victory but analysing the result, he did win the elections,” Bushinsky said. asserted
Bushinsky → cut → elections
When The New Yorker’s David Remnick arrived in Israel in 1998 to profile a more youthful Netanyahu, prominent critics of the new prime minister weren’t hard to find. asserted
critics → arrive → minister
“He’s not a trustworthy man,” Yitzhak Shamir, the previous Likud prime minister, told Remnick. asserted
Shamir → ’ → Remnick
“I don’t believe he believes anything. asserted
he → believe → anything
He has a huge ego. asserted
He → have → ego
People don’t like such people. asserted
People → like → people
I don’t like him.” asserted
I → like → him
Labor’s Shimon Peres, whom Netanyahu narrowly defeated in 1996, said: “Netanyahu’s only consideration is his own coalition. asserted
consideration → defeat → 1996
He’s always worried about losing power – that is always his first priority.” asserted
that → ’ → power
Peres accused Netanyahu of damaging Israel’s global image by undermining the peace process with the Palestinians. asserted
Peres → accuse → Palestinians
Three decades later, precisely the same criticisms are still made of Netanyahu – and with even more force. asserted
criticisms → make → force
Internationally, he is widely loathed and has brought Israel’s standing down with him. asserted
he → loathe → him
Seventy-eight per cent of Australians have little to no faith in him to do the right thing for world affairs, according to a June poll released by the Pew Research Centre that found he is among the world’s most unpopular leaders. uncertain
he → have → leaders
He has been accused of war crimes in the International Criminal Court, and Israel faces genocide charges in the International Court of Justice for its conduct in the war in Gaza. asserted
Israel → accuse → Gaza
Within Israel, he is a polarising figure, loathed by the left but still commanding remarkable loyalty, and even devotion, among Likud’s conservative base. asserted
he → polarise → base
The fierce bond between Netanyahu and his supporters was on display ahead of election day at Jerusalem’s thriving Mahaneh Yehudah Market. Selling knafeh desserts at a market stall, Asher Biton, 53, said Israel had been “in chaos” and “very tense” over the past three years. asserted
Israel → sell → years
“We want a normal life,” he said. asserted
he → want → life
“We don’t want wars.” asserted
We → want → wars
…and 41 more, not listed.
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