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“…ightest recovery for Republicans on the generic ballot — but I’d argue that state and district polls have, if anything, been getting better for Democrats, like in a set of CNN polls yesterday morning that had them winning Kansas by 4 points and Texas by 6…”

“We think it’s an important story, providing historical context on midterm elections that helps to explain FLIPR’s increasingly optimistic forecast for Democrats.”

“Democrats’ big lead on the generic ballot is consistent with history It’s not hard to understand why Democrats have made further gains in polls lately.”

“(Good polls for Democrats in Maine and Michigan yesterday offset some of the recent movement.) I didn’t discuss this on the podcast, but another factor is that the way the model uses expert ratings.”

“…, you don’t want to be too results-oriented. [But] with the midterm model, 80 percent of the work is in gathering these 68 fucking files that we have, and making sure that the 550-odd races5 that we’re forecasting — governor, House, Senate — making sure all…”

“So now we’re calling our model FLIPR 🐬 instead.1 In line with our tradition of silly backronyms, FLIPR stands for Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings.”

“Anthropic is very impressive, I would say, given that it’s kind of stayed in the lead lap without that kind of heritage — but at the same time, it started with a lot of seed capital.”

“So, you can’t really trust anything going on in the polls before then.”

“It applies a likely voter adjustment, which in this case benefits Democrats and moves their lead from D +7.5 to D +8.2. -EMD, 9/15/26 This is the landing page for Silver Bulletin’s 2026 generic congressional ballot polling average.”