Trade 'war' or not, are Canada and the United States now dug in?
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Canada → dig → ?
However close they once were to a deal, it could be awhile before they get back there
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer might not like to think of it as a trade "war," but whatever you call it — a difference of opinion? an incongruity? the unpleasantness? — it's now been going on for more than 19 months.
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it → get → months
In February 2025, Donald Trump, in defiance of a free trade deal he himself signed in 2018, first announced tariffs on a number of Canadian products.
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he → sign → products
And it seems now it could be several more months before hostilities are reduced, let alone ceased.
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hostilities → seem → ?
"I think it is more likely than not that the current situation remains unchanged until the end of the year," said Wolfgang Alschner, a professor of business and trade law at the University of Ottawa.
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Alschner → think → Ottawa
"From the latest rounds of talks, we know that there is a potential landing zone but also that positions are currently too far removed to easily reach an agreement.
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positions → know → agreement
The status quo is painful, but not so painful as to drive either side into forcing a change in position.
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quo → drive → position
Jean Chrétien says 'we bow to no one' in fiery 9/11 speech in Gander, N.L.
Why isn't Canada blocking the Welland Canal?
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Canada → say → Canal
Other trade war questions answered
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questions → answer → ?
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Mark Carney described the latest round of American tariffs announced earlier this week as "relatively modest," at least "in the context of other things that the U.S. administration has done."
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administration → speak → that
That might suggest Carney doesn't see a need to respond with further measures against American imports.
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Carney → suggest → imports
The recent cycle of escalation may have reached a kind of equilibrium.
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cycle → reach → equilibrium
Carney also said Canada is "always ready to strike a fair deal."
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Canada → say → deal
But if one is willing to entertain war analogies, it might be said that both sides now seem dug in.
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sides → entertain → analogies
The fact that the principal negotiators — Greer on the American side, Dominic LeBlanc and Janice Charette for the Canadian government — have largely avoided the political fray and acted professionally may serve to keep a door open to negotiations, suggests Meredith Lilly, a professor of international economic policy at Carleton University and a former foreign policy and trade adviser to Stephen Harper.
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Lilly → avoid → Harper
Lilly also sees a few potential "trigger moments" in the months ahead that could restart talks.
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that → see → talks
If the United States and Mexico were to come to an agreement on their issues, for instance, that could put pressure on Canada.
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that → come → Canada
The results of the midterm elections in the United States could also change the political calculus on the American side.
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results → change → side
And lingering in the distance is an American threat to impose new auto and truck tariffs on Jan. 1, 2027.
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threat → linger → Jan.
Trump could also conceivably try to force the issue with a new threat of tariffs, like he did this summer.
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he → try → tariffs
Perhaps less optimistically, there is Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew's account that provinces have been told to plan for "two-plus years" of turmoil.
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provinces → be → turmoil
Is anyone winning this fight?
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anyone → win → fight
American officials may believe that U.S. economic power ultimately gives them the advantage — U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has likened Canada to a "yippy" dachshund trying to pick a fight with a German shepherd.
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Bessent → believe → shepherd
But both Paul Krugman, the American economist, and Roland Paris, the Canadian foreign policy scholar, argued this week that Canada may have the motivational or political advantage, with Canadians largely united against a clear and potentially existential threat.
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Canadians → argue → threat
"Trade wars test not only economic strength but also political resolve," Paris wrote.
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Paris → test → strength
Recent polls have shown high support among Canadians for taking a tough approach with the United States.
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polls → show → States
And the Angus Reid Institute found a significant bump in support for Carney's Liberals in the wake of trade talks collapsing.
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talks → find → wake
That may strengthen Carney's hand at the negotiating table, but could the Canadian public's reaction conceivably make it harder to get to some kind of deal with the United States?
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it → strengthen → States
Before negotiations were formally suspended, Charette reportedly warned her American counterparts that a breakdown in talks and the imposition of new American tariffs could push discussions over a cliff — the public and political reaction, she said, would only shrink the Canadian side's room to negotiate.
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she → suspend → room
David Coletto of Abacus Data has now made a similar argument, suggesting that public sentiment could be a serious impediment to a new deal.
"My sincere hope is that the temperature is turned down in both countries," Lilly said.
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Lilly → make → countries
In particular, the president really needs to reduce this very aggressive social media campaign that he's pursuing.
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he → need → that
It makes it politically very difficult, if not impossible, for the Canadian side to engage."
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side → make → ?
Lilly said she wonders if it would be harder now to even get back to whatever deal the two sides were broadly in agreement about when Trump first announced in August that one was likely.
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one → say → August
A fight that will take the measure of Carney and Canada
Some Canadians may trust Carney enough to defer to his judgment on what constitutes a good deal — or the best possible deal under the circumstances.
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what → take → circumstances
And public opinion polling would suggest he has ample political capital to draw on right now.
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he → suggest → capital
But no level of support ever amounts to a blank check.
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level → amount → check
The Carney government may have been acknowledging as much with its decision this week to not move forward with at least some of its most controversial proposals to amend environmental assessment laws.
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government → acknowledge → laws
For the sake of maintaining a strong hand, there might be more Carney could do in the days and weeks ahead.
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Carney → maintain → days
The Liberal government obviously didn't heed the Conservative opposition's calls to reconvene Parliament, while releasing the text of any draft agreement, as the Conservatives also demanded, may have been impractical or unwise.
But there is also something to be said for the emphasis Conservatives have put on transparency, not only as a matter of accountability, but for the sake of building trust.
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Conservatives → heed → trust
That might be particularly important for Carney if this fight is to only get longer and harder — and after he was criticized for his handling of the agreement to open the Gordie Howe Bridge.
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he → get → Bridge
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