Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin will run out of troops in 2028 with morale ‘very low’, says Kyiv spy chief

Read the original at The Independent ↗
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Croft, A., & Rai, A. (2026, September 11). Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin will run out of troops in 2028 with morale ‘very low’, says Kyiv spy chief. The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-live-trump-putin-shopping-centre-attack-drones-b3048352.html

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

The Independent · collected 2026-09-11 · by Alex Croft, Arpan Rai

Quick Summary

Ukraine's spy chief has predicted that Russia will run out of troops and military resources by 2028, estimating its resources will last for another 16 months. According to Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, Russia recruits around 1,000-1,200 people per day but is experiencing high casualties, with 60% being killed in action. The prediction comes as Russian drones hit a shopping mall in southeastern Ukraine, killing at least five and injuring 67, including three teenage boys. Kyiv's spy chief also cited low morale among Russian troops due to the war.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-11, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Ukraine's spy chief, Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, predicts that the Russian army will run out of troops and military resources by 2028, with morale "very low" in Moscow's ranks. He estimates Russia has a remaining 16 months' worth of resources, citing the daily recruitment of around 1,000 to 1,200 people. However, 60% of those recruited are killed in action, contributing to low morale among Russian soldiers. Ivashchenko emphasized that "nobody wants to fight". Meanwhile, in a separate incident, at least five people were killed and 67 others injured when Russian drones hit a shopping mall in Pavlohrad, Ukraine, with three teenage boys among the injured.

Written for “Ukraine Russia War Update” on 2026-10-27, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Ukraine Russia War Update
World · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 5% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Straits Times
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 24 📰 publisher trust 68
“The articles describe different events with distinct focuses: one predicts Russia's military situation and the other discusses Ukraine's readiness for de-escalation following US President Trump's announcement.”
The Straits Times
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 13 📰 publisher trust 68
“The articles describe different aspects of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but not the same specific incident.”
The Straits Times
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 9% hedged 5 of 53 📰 publisher trust 68
“The articles discuss different aspects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict: one focuses on predictions about Russian troop morale and resources, while the other discusses upcoming parliamentary elections in Russia.”
The Straits Times
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 3% hedged 1 of 29 📰 publisher trust 68
“The articles discuss different aspects of the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
NPR
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 21% hedged 5 of 24 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A describes a meeting between Kushner, Witkoff and Zelenskyy on Sunday in Kyiv, while Article B mentions an unrelated prediction by Ukraine's spy chief about Russia's military resources and morale”
Semafor
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 4 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A describes a meeting between Witkoff and Kushner with both Putin and Zelenskyy on 2026-09-06, while Article B quotes an intelligence directorate head predicting Russia's future military prospects in September 2026 without mentioning the specific meeting”
The Straits Times
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 5% hedged 1 of 19 📰 publisher trust 68
“The articles discuss different aspects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with Article A focusing on troop morale and resources, while Article B discusses a proposed energy truce.”
Russia, Ukraine eye diplomacy effort different event · 80%
Semafor
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 33% hedged 1 of 3 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A discusses a shift in rhetoric and potential diplomatic progress, while Article B reports on an assessment of Russia's military resources by Ukraine's spy chief, indicating two distinct topics and events.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 9% hedged 3 of 35 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A reports on a meeting between US envoys and Zelenskyy in Kyiv, while Article B reports on a prediction by Ukraine's spy chief about Russia's military resources running out in 2028”
The Straits Times
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 3% hedged 1 of 38 📰 publisher trust 68
“Article A describes daily life in Kyiv being disrupted by escalating attacks, while Article B reports on a prediction made by the head of Ukraine's intelligence directorate about Russia's military resources running out”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
44
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
5%
2 of 44 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
59/100
The Independent's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
World
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-11 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Independent · 3097 article(s) · 6 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 6 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Alex Croft
40 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 From behind the bare walls of his cramped prison cell, former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro uttered four words to his son that could change the country’s future. “Let’s go, it’s you,” he said, handing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro his most prized asset: his blessing to become candidate for Brazil’s 2026 election.
🔮 The US military is pulling out diplomats and their families from across the Middle East, according to reports, prompting concern that Donald Trump could join attacks on the Houthis.
🔮 The EU is working quickly to prepare sanctions on Russia before French presidential elections that could see eurosceptic Marine Le Pen enter the Élysée Palace, according to a report.
🔮 “Those who have broken, attacked the prefectures as well as businesses, looted even our town halls, will be prosecuted and punished,” the French president said.
🔮 “This Act could have helped enormously – and still can!
🔮 Downing Street has said inclusion in the EU’s Made in Europe scheme would be “good news” for Britain’s car industry, despite a report in The Guardian suggesting it would be conditional on Britain aligning with the EU’s position on tariffs for Chinese-made electric vehicles.
🔮 Ukrainians fear the growing rift between Washington and Kyiv could have severe consequences on the battlefield, where the Ukrainian military still depends on technology provided by the US.
🔮 President Donald Trump has claimed that he could “murder” someone without losing the backing of one of his faithful supporters.
🔮 “In fact, I think it reveals the contempt the Commission has for democratic processes in Europe,” she said, although accepted that her promise to cut France’s contribution to the EU budget would be difficult.
🔮 The Neom project, which originally planned to see more than £363bn would be pumped into the construction of The Line, a 170km-long megacity, along with a mountain ski resort, several coastal resorts and an industrial zone along the coast of the Red Sea,
Also by Alex Croft
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 40 articles by Alex Croft →
Arpan Rai
11 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 The bill is awaiting Mr Trump’s signature after which it will be signed into a law.
🔮 City authorities said 10 people were wounded in Kyiv, with mayor Vitali Klitschko adding that apart from apartment and inhabited buildings, debris also fell on warehouse facilities and near a petrol station, now a frequent target of attacks.
🔮 Kim said Pyongyang’s government had a firm will to broaden its “comprehensive” cooperation with Russia based on their bilateral friendship, mutual assistance, and what he called the two countries’ alliance relations.
🔮 Kyiv’s spy chief has predicted that the Russian army could run out of troops and military resources by 2028 with morale “very low” in Moscow’s ranks.
🔮 Ending the war in Ukraine will allow the US to fully restore its ties with Russia, the Kremlin said, adding that the Russian president agreed with the view of his American counterpart.
🔮 The US president is expected to speak to Putin and Zelensky over the phone on Monday.
🔮 Earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal reported that US intelligence assessments had indicated that Putin could test Nato’s resolve with a limited assault on an allied country over the coming years.
🔮 It was the first known trip to Moscow by a US spy chief since his predecessor, William Burns, held talks with Vladimir Putin in November 2021.
🔮 Andy Burnham is set to give Ukraine blueprints for the British Storm Shadow long-range missile during his Independence Day visit.
🔮 People in Russia are withdrawing billions from the nation’s banks over fears that the Kremlin could begin to seize money to finance the war with Ukraine, a report says.
Also by Arpan Rai
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 11 articles by Arpan Rai →

Topics

Belgium Portugal Russia Russian Ukraine

Subjects

Russian NORP · 12× Russia GPE · 6× Ukraine GPE · 6× Belgium GPE · 3× German NORP · 3× Moscow GPE · 3× Portugal GPE · 3× Brussels GPE · 2× Lower Saxony GPE · 2× Rosatom ORG · 2×

Narrative

Canadian PM Carney says he spoke recently to Trump about Ukraine and Iran Canadian prime minister Mark Carney said he had spoken to US president Donald Trump "a couple of times" recently about the war in Ukraine and issues related to the Iran conflict. Carney, involved in a deepening trade war with the United States, told reporters in Calgary that he had talked to Trump "because part of our responsibility is to work together".
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-11
🔮 Kyiv’s spy chief has predicted that the Russian army could run out of troops and military resources by 2028 with morale “very low” in Moscow’s ranks.

Claims (44 extracted, 2 hedged)

Kyiv’s spy chief has predicted that the Russian army could run out of troops and military resources by 2028 with morale “very low” in Moscow’s ranks. uncertain
morale → predict → ranks
Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, the head of the intelligence directorate in Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence, said Russia’s resources will only last for another 16 months. asserted
resources → say → months
“Russia has military and economic resources for the next year, but we estimate it will end in 2028,” he told The Times. asserted
he → have → Times
“Russia recruits roughly 1,000 people every day, sometimes 1,200, but look at these casualty figures. asserted
Russia → recruit → figures
Of those, around 60 per cent are killed in action,” he added. asserted
he → kill → action
“Morale is very low because nobody wants to fight.” asserted
nobody → want → ?
Meanwhile, at least five people were killed and 67 others were injured as Russian drones hit a shopping mall in Pavlohrad, a city in southeastern Ukraine. asserted
drones → kill → Ukraine
Officials said shops and vehicles were hit in the daylight attack which took place "when there were many people on the streets". asserted
which → say → streets
The injured include three teenage boys aged 13, 14 and 15. asserted
injured → injure → boys
Portugal says it supports use of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine - but understands Belgium's concerns asserted
it → say → concerns
Portugal has declared that it supports the use of frozen Russian assets to assist Ukraine, but is understanding of Belgium’s concerns over the financial risks, foreign minister Paulo Rangel said. asserted
Rangel → declare → risks
Brussels-based clearing house Euroclear hosts most of the roughly €200 billion ($232.54 billion) in frozen Russian assets held in Europe. asserted
Euroclear → base → Europe
Last year, when the European Commission proposed using the assets to support a Ukraine loan, Belgium opposed the plan due to concerns over guarantees against the possibility of lawsuits and Russian compensation claims. uncertain
Belgium → propose → lawsuits
It demanded the risks be shared across the EU. asserted
risks → demand → EU
"Portugal is favourable and will never be an obstacle to the use of those €200 billion," Mr Rangel said on Thursday. asserted
Rangel → say → Thursday
But he added that the concerns in Brussels were “truly pertinent” and hoped for a “very constructive solution”. asserted
concerns → add → solution
German environmental groups sues to prevent Russian-linked nuclear permit asserted
groups → sue → permit
A German environmental group has sued the state of Lower Saxony to overturn approval for expanding a nuclear fuel plant as part of a project linked to Russia's state-owned atomic energy company Rosatom, it said on Friday. asserted
it → sue → Friday
The case, brought by BUND Niedersachsen, challenges the state's clearance for a subsidiary of France's Framatome to produce nuclear fuel rods in the northern German town of Lingen, as part of a licensing agreement with the state-backed Russian firm. asserted
subsidiary → bring → firm
The environment ministry in Lower Saxony granted approval subject to certain conditions, with guidance from the federal environment ministry and despite political concerns over Moscow’s invasion in Ukraine. asserted
ministry → grant → Ukraine
The ministry said there was no legal basis for rejection. asserted
ministry → say → rejection
BUND, collaborating with anti-nuclear group .ausgestrahlt, said the permit was the result of procedural errors and would pose a security risk because of Rosatom's role. asserted
permit → collaborate → role
Two industrial facilities attacked in Russia's Ural mountains Two industrial facilities in the Perm region of Russia’s Ural mountains were attacked by Ukrainian drones, the regional governor said. asserted
governor → attack → drones
Governor Dmitry Makhonin did not name the facilities, saying only that the attack was on the northern part of the region and that there were no casualties. asserted
attack → name → region
Nato allies foil Russian subsea cable sabotage plot Nato allies foiled a plot where Russian subs trained to unleash a secret weapon designed to disable critical undersea cables without leaving any fingerprints, it has been revealed. asserted
it → foil → fingerprints
A joint operation involving Britain, Norway and the United States tracked and confronted the Russian vessels at sea, officials told Reuters after a clandestine Russian operation was carried out by Moscow's GUGI undersea warfare directorate. asserted
operation → involve → directorate
Deep-sea submersibles were used to simulate the deployment of the sophisticated and destructive technology capable of disrupting deep sea cables vital for global internet connectivity and financial transactions. asserted
submersibles → use → connectivity
The vessels were prevented from completing their exercise and eventually left the area. asserted
vessels → prevent → area
The discovery of the new weapon, location of the operation and US involvement come months after Britain and Norway disclosed that they had uncovered a covert Russian operation in Arctic waters. asserted
they → come → waters
The deep-sea face-off comes at a time when some Western intelligence officials fear the Kremlin is ramping up sabotage operations in Europe and preparing for a conflict with Nato. asserted
Kremlin → come → Nato
Canadian PM Carney says he spoke recently to Trump about Ukraine and Iran Canadian prime minister Mark Carney said he had spoken to US president Donald Trump "a couple of times" recently about the war in Ukraine and issues related to the Iran conflict. Carney, involved in a deepening trade war with the United States, told reporters in Calgary that he had talked to Trump "because part of our responsibility is to work together". asserted
part → say → responsibility
He did not give details. asserted
He → give → details
The killer robots behind Ukraine’s warfare ‘revolution’ hunting the frontline In a tiny Ukrainian workshop near the frontline ‘Chimera’ is preparing his robot army for battle. asserted
Chimera → hunt → battle
Lined up in a row, the four-wheeled unmanned vehicles known as "Hyenas" will crawl toward Russian lines full of explosives. asserted
vehicles → line → explosives
"Imagine what 20 kilograms (44 pounds) of explosives is like: it's very powerful," Chimera, 44, who asked to be identified by his call sign, said. asserted
who → imagine → sign
Workshops like this one, run by Ukraine's Third Army Corps, have sprouted up across the 1,200-km (745-mile) front as Kyiv's outmanned army seeks to gain the technological edge against Russia's unrelenting infantry assaults in the fifth year of war. asserted
army → run → war
Unmanned ground vehicles are a critical new component of Ukraine's strategy to fight smarter by preserving the lives of its troops on a drone-saturated battlefield, where virtually any movement can prove deadly. asserted
movement → fight → battlefield
Two killed and three injured in drone attacks on Russia's Tula region asserted
three → kill → region
At least two people were killed and another three were injured in drone attacks on central Russia's Tula region, the local governor said on Friday. asserted
governor → kill → Friday
The Russian air defence units shot down 26 drones over the region overnight, the governor Dmitry Milyayev said. asserted
governor → shoot → region
…and 4 more, not listed.
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