Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin will run out of troops in 2028 with morale ‘very low’, says Kyiv spy chief

The Independent · collected 2026-09-11 · by Arpan Rai and Alex Croft
Read the original at The Independent ↗

Summary

Ukraine's spy chief has predicted that Russia will run out of troops and military resources by 2028, estimating its resources will last for another 16 months. According to Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, Russia recruits around 1,000-1,200 people per day but is experiencing high casualties, with 60% being killed in action. The prediction comes as Russian drones hit a shopping mall in southeastern Ukraine, killing at least five and injuring 67, including three teenage boys. Kyiv's spy chief also cited low morale among Russian troops due to the war.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-11, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
44
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
5%
2 of 44 hedged
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher trust
59.0
red-flag proxy, not a credibility rating
Outlets on this story
1
World
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-11 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Story summary

Ukraine's spy chief, Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, predicts that the Russian army will run out of troops and military resources by 2028, with morale "very low" in Moscow's ranks. He estimates Russia has a remaining 16 months' worth of resources, citing the daily recruitment of around 1,000 to 1,200 people. However, 60% of those recruited are killed in action, contributing to low morale among Russian soldiers. Ivashchenko emphasized that "nobody wants to fight". Meanwhile, in a separate incident, at least five people were killed and 67 others injured when Russian drones hit a shopping mall in Pavlohrad, Ukraine, with three teenage boys among the injured.

Written for “Ukraine Russia War Update” on 2026-09-12, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.35, but all 2 of its quote(s) are attributed speech - words the article quotes from someone, not the article's own narration, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 8093: attributed speech only · logged 2026-09-11

Story

📰 Ukraine Russia War Update
World · 1 article(s) covering the same event. This is the one the site leads with.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 5% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
NPR
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 21% hedged 5 of 24 📰 publisher trust 59
“Article A describes a meeting between Kushner, Witkoff and Zelenskyy on Sunday in Kyiv, while Article B mentions an unrelated prediction by Ukraine's spy chief about Russia's military resources and morale”
Semafor
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 4 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article A describes a meeting between Witkoff and Kushner with both Putin and Zelenskyy on 2026-09-06, while Article B quotes an intelligence directorate head predicting Russia's future military prospects in September 2026 without mentioning the specific meeting”
Russia, Ukraine eye diplomacy effort different event · 80%
Semafor
⚖️ Centre 🔴 33% hedged 1 of 3 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article A discusses a shift in rhetoric and potential diplomatic progress, while Article B reports on an assessment of Russia's military resources by Ukraine's spy chief, indicating two distinct topics and events.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 9% hedged 3 of 35 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article A reports on a meeting between US envoys and Zelenskyy in Kyiv, while Article B reports on a prediction by Ukraine's spy chief about Russia's military resources running out in 2028”
The Straits Times
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 3% hedged 1 of 38 📰 publisher trust 94
“Article A describes daily life in Kyiv being disrupted by escalating attacks, while Article B reports on a prediction made by the head of Ukraine's intelligence directorate about Russia's military resources running out”
The Hindu
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 6 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article A reports on Russia's welcoming of India's efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict through peaceful means, while Article B discusses Ukraine's spy chief predicting Russia's military resource depletion in 2028”
The Straits Times
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 8% hedged 1 of 12 📰 publisher trust 94
“Article A reports on a possible restart of US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, while Article B discusses a prediction by the Kyiv spy chief about Russia's troop morale and resources”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 46 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article A mentions cluster munitions killing over 1,000 globally in 2025 as a related story, while Article B does not mention any incident from September 10th and instead focuses on an interview with Ukraine's spy chief predicting Russia's troop depletion”
The Dispatch
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 3 📰 publisher trust 96
“Although both articles mention the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, they focus on different aspects of the situation and do not describe the exact same specific happening.”

Publisher

The Independent · 254 article(s) · 1 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 1 correction(s)
2026-09-04
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Who wrote this

Alex Croft
11 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Kyiv’s spy chief has predicted that the Russian army could run out of troops and military resources by 2028 with morale “very low” in Moscow’s ranks.
🔮 The price of oil touched $108 a barrel on Friday for the first time since May after the Houthis captured Yemen’s strategic port city of Mokha.
🔮 The Nevados de Chillán ski resort announced it would be closed on Monday after the fire, adding in a statement on social media: “Fortunately, everyone is safe.
🔮 Ending the war in Ukraine will allow the US to fully restore its ties with Russia, the Kremlin said, adding that the Russian president agreed with the view of his American counterpart.
🔮 The US president is expected to speak to Putin and Zelensky over the phone on Monday.
🔮 Oil prices could surge as high as $120 per barrel if attacks on Middle East shipping do not stop, Goldman Sachs has warned.
🔮 The panicked screams would save their lives.
🔮 For this story, identities have been protected to guarantee the safety of prisoners, their families, and the political dissidents involved in smuggling material out of the prisons, a highly risky act that could be punishable by death.
🔮 He did not, however, elaborate on what that proposal would be.
🔮 Iran has threatened to target any Gulf states assist the US in the conflict, after the United Arab Emirates accused Tehran of launching two ballistic missiles in the first such incident since May.
More on this subject from Alex Croft
All 11 articles by Alex Croft →
Arpan Rai
8 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Kyiv’s spy chief has predicted that the Russian army could run out of troops and military resources by 2028 with morale “very low” in Moscow’s ranks.
🔮 Ending the war in Ukraine will allow the US to fully restore its ties with Russia, the Kremlin said, adding that the Russian president agreed with the view of his American counterpart.
🔮 The US president is expected to speak to Putin and Zelensky over the phone on Monday.
🔮 Earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal reported that US intelligence assessments had indicated that Putin could test Nato’s resolve with a limited assault on an allied country over the coming years.
🔮 It was the first known trip to Moscow by a US spy chief since his predecessor, William Burns, held talks with Vladimir Putin in November 2021.
🔮 Andy Burnham is set to give Ukraine blueprints for the British Storm Shadow long-range missile during his Independence Day visit.
🔮 People in Russia are withdrawing billions from the nation’s banks over fears that the Kremlin could begin to seize money to finance the war with Ukraine, a report says.
🔮 We must find a legal, safe and realistic mechanism that will allow Ukraine to renew its full democratic process even in the conditions of a long war," he said.
More on this subject from Arpan Rai
All 8 articles by Arpan Rai →

Topics

Belgium Portugal Russia Russian Ukraine

Subjects

Russian NORP · 12× Russia GPE · 6× Ukraine GPE · 6× Belgium GPE · 3× German NORP · 3× Moscow GPE · 3× Portugal GPE · 3× Brussels GPE · 2× Lower Saxony GPE · 2× Rosatom ORG · 2×

Narrative

Canadian PM Carney says he spoke recently to Trump about Ukraine and Iran Canadian prime minister Mark Carney said he had spoken to US president Donald Trump "a couple of times" recently about the war in Ukraine and issues related to the Iran conflict. Carney, involved in a deepening trade war with the United States, told reporters in Calgary that he had talked to Trump "because part of our responsibility is to work together".
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-11
🔮 Kyiv’s spy chief has predicted that the Russian army could run out of troops and military resources by 2028 with morale “very low” in Moscow’s ranks.

Claims (44 extracted, 2 hedged)

Kyiv’s spy chief has predicted that the Russian army could run out of troops and military resources by 2028 with morale “very low” in Moscow’s ranks. uncertain
morale → predict → ranks
Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, the head of the intelligence directorate in Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence, said Russia’s resources will only last for another 16 months. asserted
resources → say → months
“Russia has military and economic resources for the next year, but we estimate it will end in 2028,” he told The Times. asserted
he → have → Times
“Russia recruits roughly 1,000 people every day, sometimes 1,200, but look at these casualty figures. asserted
Russia → recruit → figures
Of those, around 60 per cent are killed in action,” he added. asserted
he → kill → action
“Morale is very low because nobody wants to fight.” asserted
nobody → want → ?
Meanwhile, at least five people were killed and 67 others were injured as Russian drones hit a shopping mall in Pavlohrad, a city in southeastern Ukraine. asserted
drones → kill → Ukraine
Officials said shops and vehicles were hit in the daylight attack which took place "when there were many people on the streets". asserted
which → say → streets
The injured include three teenage boys aged 13, 14 and 15. asserted
injured → injure → boys
Portugal says it supports use of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine - but understands Belgium's concerns asserted
it → say → concerns
Portugal has declared that it supports the use of frozen Russian assets to assist Ukraine, but is understanding of Belgium’s concerns over the financial risks, foreign minister Paulo Rangel said. asserted
Rangel → declare → risks
Brussels-based clearing house Euroclear hosts most of the roughly €200 billion ($232.54 billion) in frozen Russian assets held in Europe. asserted
Euroclear → base → Europe
Last year, when the European Commission proposed using the assets to support a Ukraine loan, Belgium opposed the plan due to concerns over guarantees against the possibility of lawsuits and Russian compensation claims. uncertain
Belgium → propose → lawsuits
It demanded the risks be shared across the EU. asserted
risks → demand → EU
"Portugal is favourable and will never be an obstacle to the use of those €200 billion," Mr Rangel said on Thursday. asserted
Rangel → say → Thursday
But he added that the concerns in Brussels were “truly pertinent” and hoped for a “very constructive solution”. asserted
concerns → add → solution
German environmental groups sues to prevent Russian-linked nuclear permit asserted
groups → sue → permit
A German environmental group has sued the state of Lower Saxony to overturn approval for expanding a nuclear fuel plant as part of a project linked to Russia's state-owned atomic energy company Rosatom, it said on Friday. asserted
it → sue → Friday
The case, brought by BUND Niedersachsen, challenges the state's clearance for a subsidiary of France's Framatome to produce nuclear fuel rods in the northern German town of Lingen, as part of a licensing agreement with the state-backed Russian firm. asserted
subsidiary → bring → firm
The environment ministry in Lower Saxony granted approval subject to certain conditions, with guidance from the federal environment ministry and despite political concerns over Moscow’s invasion in Ukraine. asserted
ministry → grant → Ukraine
The ministry said there was no legal basis for rejection. asserted
ministry → say → rejection
BUND, collaborating with anti-nuclear group .ausgestrahlt, said the permit was the result of procedural errors and would pose a security risk because of Rosatom's role. asserted
permit → collaborate → role
Two industrial facilities attacked in Russia's Ural mountains Two industrial facilities in the Perm region of Russia’s Ural mountains were attacked by Ukrainian drones, the regional governor said. asserted
governor → attack → drones
Governor Dmitry Makhonin did not name the facilities, saying only that the attack was on the northern part of the region and that there were no casualties. asserted
attack → name → region
Nato allies foil Russian subsea cable sabotage plot Nato allies foiled a plot where Russian subs trained to unleash a secret weapon designed to disable critical undersea cables without leaving any fingerprints, it has been revealed. asserted
it → foil → fingerprints
A joint operation involving Britain, Norway and the United States tracked and confronted the Russian vessels at sea, officials told Reuters after a clandestine Russian operation was carried out by Moscow's GUGI undersea warfare directorate. asserted
operation → involve → directorate
Deep-sea submersibles were used to simulate the deployment of the sophisticated and destructive technology capable of disrupting deep sea cables vital for global internet connectivity and financial transactions. asserted
submersibles → use → connectivity
The vessels were prevented from completing their exercise and eventually left the area. asserted
vessels → prevent → area
The discovery of the new weapon, location of the operation and US involvement come months after Britain and Norway disclosed that they had uncovered a covert Russian operation in Arctic waters. asserted
they → come → waters
The deep-sea face-off comes at a time when some Western intelligence officials fear the Kremlin is ramping up sabotage operations in Europe and preparing for a conflict with Nato. asserted
Kremlin → come → Nato
Canadian PM Carney says he spoke recently to Trump about Ukraine and Iran Canadian prime minister Mark Carney said he had spoken to US president Donald Trump "a couple of times" recently about the war in Ukraine and issues related to the Iran conflict. Carney, involved in a deepening trade war with the United States, told reporters in Calgary that he had talked to Trump "because part of our responsibility is to work together". asserted
part → say → responsibility
He did not give details. asserted
He → give → details
The killer robots behind Ukraine’s warfare ‘revolution’ hunting the frontline In a tiny Ukrainian workshop near the frontline ‘Chimera’ is preparing his robot army for battle. asserted
Chimera → hunt → battle
Lined up in a row, the four-wheeled unmanned vehicles known as "Hyenas" will crawl toward Russian lines full of explosives. asserted
vehicles → line → explosives
"Imagine what 20 kilograms (44 pounds) of explosives is like: it's very powerful," Chimera, 44, who asked to be identified by his call sign, said. asserted
who → imagine → sign
Workshops like this one, run by Ukraine's Third Army Corps, have sprouted up across the 1,200-km (745-mile) front as Kyiv's outmanned army seeks to gain the technological edge against Russia's unrelenting infantry assaults in the fifth year of war. asserted
army → run → war
Unmanned ground vehicles are a critical new component of Ukraine's strategy to fight smarter by preserving the lives of its troops on a drone-saturated battlefield, where virtually any movement can prove deadly. asserted
movement → fight → battlefield
Two killed and three injured in drone attacks on Russia's Tula region asserted
three → kill → region
At least two people were killed and another three were injured in drone attacks on central Russia's Tula region, the local governor said on Friday. asserted
governor → kill → Friday
The Russian air defence units shot down 26 drones over the region overnight, the governor Dmitry Milyayev said. asserted
governor → shoot → region
…and 4 more, not listed.
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