Sabato’s Crystal Ball has recently updated its Senate race predictions, shifting Alaska from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democrat,” and South Carolina from “Safe Republican” to “Leans Republican.” In Alaska, incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) faces a challenge from Democrat Mary Peltola, while in South Carolina, Republican Darline Graham Nordone is running against Democratic candidate Annie Andrews. The shift in South Carolina reflects criticism of the Republican candidate as "flawed," based on poor polling numbers, whereas Alaska’s change is attributed to recent primary results and concerns about voter confusion due to another candidate with a similar name also running.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-06,
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Story summary
Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently updated its ratings for two Senate races, moving them towards Democrats. In Alaska, where incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces challenger Mary Peltola, the race shifted from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democrat." Meanwhile, in South Carolina, the contest between Republican Darline Graham Nordone and Democratic Annie Andrews changed from "Safe Republican" to "Leans Republican," reflecting a more competitive landscape for Republicans. The forecast shift is attributed partly to weak polling numbers for Republican candidates, particularly considering Graham’s “flawed” candidacy as she seeks to replace her late brother, former Sen. Lindsey Graham. These updates indicate an increasingly challenging path for Republicans in maintaining Senate control.
Written for “Senate Race Projections Shift” on 2026-10-06,
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Two more Senate races shifted toward Democrats, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings published Tuesday, signaling Republicans’ uphill battle in maintaining power in Washington.
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races → shift → Washington
The Alaska race, where Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) faces a challenge from Democrat Mary Peltola, moved from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democrat.”
asserted
Sullivan → face → Democrat
The South Carolina race, which features Republican Darline Graham Nordone against Democratic candidate Annie Andrews, moved from “Safe Republican” to “Leans Republican,” according to the University of Virginia Center for Politics election forecaster.
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which → feature → forecaster
The development follows the forecaster’s move to shift several other battleground races in Democrats’ favor, boosting Abdul el Sayed’s chances in Michigan and Josh Turek in Iowa.
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development → follow → Iowa
The forecaster credited its most recent decision to tilt the historically firmly red South Carolina seat more in Democrats’ favor to its view that Graham, who is seeking to replace her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), is a “flawed” candidate, citing lackluster polling.
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who → credit → polling
Sullivan is running for reelection in a race featuring Peltola, a fairly centrist Democrat and another rival with the same name as the senator.
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Sullivan → run → senator
That development has triggered a lawsuit from Republicans concerned that Democrats are using the other Dan Sullivan to confuse the electorate and pull critical votes from the incumbent senator in what is expected to be a tight election come November.
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what → trigger → November
The forecaster credited its move to shift the race more in Peltola’s favor to polling, her performance in the primary, and the fact that the “fake” Dan Sullivan will also be on the ballot next month.
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Sullivan → credit → ballot
“The August primary provided another encouraging data point for Peltola, who won 49.5% of the vote to Sullivan’s 41.4%.
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who → provide → %
The caveat is that another Dan Sullivan, who received 2.5% as an unaffiliated candidate, was also on the ballot and will advance into the top-four general election,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote.
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Ball → receive → election
“It is possible that some Democrats were strategically voting for the ‘fake’ Dan Sullivan, so Peltola’s near-50% showing was notable.
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showing → vote → Sullivan
The ‘fake’ Dan Sullivan could have also attracted some lower-information voters that meant to back the incumbent.
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that → attract → incumbent
Overall, the mix of candidates on the November ballot helps Peltola, as she is the only Democrat listed.”
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she → help → Peltola
The forecaster last month shifted eleven House races toward Democrats, as Republicans fight to defy historical precedent, in which the party in power typically loses the midterms.
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party → shift → midterms
That ratings change impacted races from Virginia and Montana to Pennsylvania and California.
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change → impact → Pennsylvania
In the latest ratings shift targeting the upper chamber, the forecaster said Republicans now need to win more toss-up races to keep their Senate majority than Democrats need to win in order to flip it.
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Democrats → target → it
Republicans need three of the four races rated as toss-ups to claim a 50-50 majority with the vice presidential tiebreaker, while Democrats need to win two of the four to clinch a 51-49 majority, assuming each side also wins their current leaners.
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side → need → leaners
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) on Monday revealed he is pressing President Donald Trump for more funding towards battleground races, noting that GOP efforts to ensure Republicans win have “gotten very expensive.”
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Republicans → reveal → races
Texas is particularly notable in terms of money being funneled into the battle, as Republicans fight to keep Democratic state Sen. James Talarico from flipping Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-TX) seat blue.
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Republicans → funnel → seat
Thune this week expressed confidence Republicans will keep the Senate, despite polling indicating many candidates face a tight race.
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candidates → express → race
“I think all of these races are margin of error, at least the ones that we have to win,” Thune said.
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Thune → think → that
“And historically, at least if you look at polls, we tend to outperform them.”
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we → look → them
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