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- Undecided voters will likely determine the election results, and persuading them is the key challenge for both parties as November nears.
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November → click → parties
- In the nation’s third-youngest district, uncertainty among Gen Z and millennial voters in particular could affect turnout or results.
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uncertainty → affect → turnout
The rows of candies and nuts at the Guadalajara Meat Market — tamarindo con chile, seasoned pistachios, spicy paletas — sat mostly untouched as customers filtered through this carniceria in the late afternoon heat.
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customers → season → heat
“You see a lot of people consuming the minimum, what they need to get by through the week,” said owner Carina Murillo, 31, as she checked out customers on a recent weekday.
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she → see → weekday
“Instead of buying six items, they’re buying three items.”
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they → buy → items
While customers bypass extras, like the snacks at the front counter, Murillo’s costs have gone up.
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costs → bypass → counter
Imported goods from Mexico and Canada have become more difficult to source and sometimes carry tariffs, she said.
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she → become → tariffs
Transportation fees have risen as diesel prices respond to the war in Iran.
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prices → rise → Iran
The market’s insurance costs have risen by about a third.
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costs → rise → third
All of it has forced Murillo to increase prices.
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All → force → prices
As the area struggles, Murillo, a college graduate who years ago felt motivated enough to door-knock for political causes, is among those who have become disillusioned.
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who → struggle → those
Those in Washington, she said, don’t understand the lives of the working people who keep the country running.
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who → say → country
There have been “years where I feel completely overpowered to the point where I’m not motivated to take part,” said Murillo, who didn’t vote in 2024 but plans to do so in November.
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who → feel → November
“That’s what happens when you feel discouraged or like nothing’s going to change.”
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nothing → ’ → ?
The economic strife plaguing Americans is clear in this rural, majority-Latino Central Valley congressional district, home to the state’s most competitive House race, the closely watched contest between Republican Rep. David Valadao and Democrat Randy Villegas.
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strife → plague → Valadao
Democrats hope the national economic angst will translate into big turnout in the midterm elections, but some in this region worry that years of financial struggle may depress voters’ desire to participate rather than motivate them.
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years → hope → them
And Republicans, who rely on their party turnout beating that of Democrats in rural areas, also face the risk that frustration with the current political climate could dampen enthusiasm.
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frustration → rely → enthusiasm
“Before they can think about Valadao, before Trump or Gavin Newsom or who’s going to run, families are concerned with the immediate: paying the rent, having the food on the table,” said Eliseo Gamiño, who heads the Central Valley Leadership Round Table, a coalition of Latino community leaders and elected officials.
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who → think → leaders
“You can’t be thinking about voting when your kids are hungry.”
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kids → think → ?
Widespread anxiety over environmental risks and rising costs have turned the rapid expansion of AI data centers into a focal point in midterm elections nationwide.
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anxiety → rise → elections
Few voters who spoke to The Times in this swing district were decided on which party to support in November — or whether to vote at all.
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who → speak → November
Such undecided voters will likely decide the election outcome, and persuading them is the key challenge for both parties as November nears.
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November → decide → parties
In a district that is the third-youngest in population in the country, the simmering uncertainty among Gen Z and millennial voters in particular could affect turnout or results.
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uncertainty → simmer → turnout
Thirty-one percent of its voting-age population is 29 or younger, according to the Tufts University research center CIRCLE, which tracks youth civic engagement, making it among the top swath of House races in which young people could swing the outcome.
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people → vote → outcome
The 22nd District, carved from the state’s agricultural epicenter, is one of fewer than two dozen toss-up races nationwide that will likely determine which party controls the U.S. House in the second half of President Trump’s current term.
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party → carve → term
It is also among several high-stakes races nationwide that will test progressive candidates.
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that → test → candidates
Valadao’s seat has long been considered a vulnerable one; Democrats added about 100,000 Fresno residents to the district under Proposition 50’s new map in a bid to help their chances.
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Democrats → consider → chances
The boundaries include swaths of Kern, Kings and Tulare counties, along with a very small piece of Madera County.
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boundaries → include → County
“It’s going to be crucial in an area that is more purple, more bipartisan, where it’s very clear it can go either way ... that these candidates make an effort to get those voters on their team,” said Brittany Martinez, a California-based Republican strategist.
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Martinez → go → team
Valadao, 49, who comes from a dairy farming family, is well known in the district and has repeatedly secured victory in close races, retaking the seat in 2020 after losing it in 2018’s blue wave.
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who → come → wave
He saw a close race in 2022, then won by nearly seven percentage points in 2024, outperforming Trump.
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He → see → Trump
His biggest vulnerability this time around may be his vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which included steep cuts to Medicaid.
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which → include → Medicaid
Local hospitals are bracing for funding cuts, though a carve-out may keep many valley residents from losing coverage.
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out → brace → coverage
The district has the highest proportion of Medi-Cal recipients of any in the state, with 67% of residents enrolled as of 2025, according to the California Health Care Foundation.
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district → have → Foundation
Valadao spent part of the August recess touring the Central Valley for private meetings with local entities including a hospital, a housing program, a sawmill and a school district, and held a telephone town hall last week.
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Valadao → spend → hall
Democrats have criticized him for not holding face-to-face voter events, including public town halls.
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Democrats → criticize → halls
Villegas, 31, a professor and school board member who was endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and is aligned with the Working Families Party, bested a Democrat backed by the party’s House campaign arm to win the nomination.
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who → endorse → nomination
Villegas has banked on a more public-facing approach to win over swing voters — recently handing out popsicles from a pushcart he wheeled around a Labor Day event in Bakersfield, for instance — a strategy his campaign calls “going everywhere.”
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campaign → bank → instance
Republicans have criticized his record as too far left for the moderate district.
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Republicans → criticize → district
Both candidates have attempted to lean away from partisan narratives.
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candidates → attempt → narratives
…and 51 more, not listed.
