An electoral earthquake has fractured Germany’s societal and political tectonic plates.
asserted
earthquake → fracture → plates
In a state election on Sunday, the far-right Alternative for Germany party won 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, a state of roughly two million people in the eastern part of the country.
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party → win → country
When Friedrich Merz first campaigned to lead Germany’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), in 2018, he vowed to reduce support for the far-right AfD in half.
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he → campaign → half
In a bitter irony, Chancellor Merz’s CDU lost half its support in Saxony-Anhalt and after its resounding victory the AfD has become a direct threat to his leadership, and is beginning to overturn Germany’s postwar political order.
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AfD → lose → order
Two more regional elections are scheduled later this month and could demonstrate the growing strength of Germany’s fringe parties and intensify pressure on Merz’s governing coalition in Berlin.
uncertain
elections → schedule → Berlin
The center cannot hold
The AfD is more than a political disruptor.
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AfD → hold → disruptor
German domestic intelligence has classified parts of the party, including its Saxony-Anhalt chapter, as right-wing extremist.
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intelligence → classify → extremist
Yet the AfD has overtaken the CDU in national polls, while Merz’s approval ratings have fallen to levels unprecedented for a German chancellor.
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ratings → overtake → chancellor
Although Merz has backtracked on campaign promises, most notably his commitment to uphold the debt brake—loosening the constitutional limit on government borrowing—he has remained resolute in preserving the “firewall” between the CDU and AfD. That firewall is intended to keep Germany anchored in its postwar democracy deliberately constructed with guardrails against its darkest history to prevent backsliding into authoritarianism.
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firewall → backtrack → authoritarianism
The AfD has used Merz’s flip flop on the debt brake against him and is questioning defense spending on Ukraine.
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AfD → use → Ukraine
Upon taking office in May 2025, a little over a year ago, Merz promised to revive Germany’s stagnant economy and increase defense spending to position the country as Europe’s de facto military leader.
uncertain
Merz → take → leader
An antagonistic Russia and an unreliable America have left Germany with few alternatives.
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Russia → leave → alternatives
German businesses are suffering with high costs, American tariffs and intensifying competition from China.
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businesses → suffer → China
Merz also made another defining promise: to beat back the AfD and restore the centrist CDU’s claim to being the true conservative party in Germany.
uncertain
Merz → make → Germany
Instead, the election in Saxony-Anhalt will amplify calls, including from within his own party, for him to step aside.
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him → amplify → party
Merz’s blunders over the past year cannot be dismissed as the mistakes of a political novice.
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blunders → dismiss → novice
He is a seasoned operator who, unlike many of his German peers, has extensive experience in the private sector.
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who → have → sector
He promised an ambitious program of reforms to tackle Germany’s welfare and pension programs, but his proposals were too tepid and too late.
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proposals → promise → programs
And his poor communication style has also overshadowed his efforts on curbing migration and his diplomatic campaign across Europe to sustain support for Ukraine.
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style → overshadow → Ukraine
Merz has never been a particularly beloved figure, and the grand coalition between the conservatives and the Social Democratic Party was hardly the outcome German voters desired after the federal election last year.
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voters → desire → election
After the Federal Republic of Germany was established in 1949, there had been only single Grand Coalition government during the first four decades.
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Republic → establish → decades
This coalition, was supposed to be different: it was formed to enact far-reaching reforms and hold the AfD at bay.
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it → suppose → bay
So far, it has done neither.
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it → do → neither
The age of anger
The AfD began in 2013 as a movement of anti-euro skeptics.
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AfD → begin → skeptics
It has since become a nationwide force, building its constituency through relentless opposition to immigration, nativist appeal and efforts to relativize Germany’s Nazi past.
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It → become → past
An anemic German economy and frustration with the established parties have accelerated its rise.
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economy → establish → rise
The AfD is now the leading political party in Germany with support from nearly one-third of German voters.
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AfD → lead → voters
Like its far-right counterparts elsewhere in Europe, the AfD has prospered by channeling voters’ anger and grievance.
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AfD → prosper → anger
Until now, however, it has remained in opposition.
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it → remain → opposition
No other German party has been willing to forge a parliamentary coalition with the AfD, and even some European far-right parties consider the AfD so radical that they prefer to keep it at arm’s length.
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they → forge → length
The AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt and other upcoming regional elections could change that dynamic.
uncertain
victory → change → dynamic
Although the CDU and the AfD hold overlapping positions on migration and some social questions, the AfD’s hostility toward Germany’s culture of historical remembrance is fundamentally incompatible with the country’s center-right tradition.
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hostility → hold → tradition
The CDU’s first leader, Konrad Adenauer, committed Germany to integration with the West—a principle known as Westbindung—that the AfD would dismantle.
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AfD → commit → that
Merz has steadfastly defended that orientation.
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Merz → defend → orientation
The AfD, by contrast, seeks renewed ties with Russia and Germany’s withdrawal from the euro, which it presents as a path to economic revival.
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it → seek → revival
The mood of the country can now be read most clearly in the regional elections, where voters are preoccupied with jobs, immigration, schools and public services.
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voters → read → jobs
These are precisely the areas in which the grand coalition that Merz leads is coming up short.
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Merz → lead → that
The AfD offers a story of national decline but few credible solutions and no meaningful experience of governing.
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AfD → offer → governing
Yet criticizing the AfD is not sufficient for the CDU.
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criticizing → criticize → CDU
The democratic answer to the rise of the AfD must be responsible government, solving complex problems through the institutions and the practices of a healthy democracy.
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answer → solve → democracy
…and 5 more, not listed.
The Aporia
