The Independent World
· collected 2026-09-06 · by Chris Stevenson and James C. Reynolds
Story summary
In a closely watched regional election, Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is poised to gain power in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. The AfD is expected to secure at least 44% of the vote, more than double its showing five years ago, according to exit polls. This would give the party a significant majority and potentially mark the first time a far-right party has held state-level power in Germany since World War II.
The AfD's rise to prominence is seen as a threat to mainstream parties, including Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which is currently leading the state. The party's success is attributed to its promise to restrict immigration and restore ties with Russia, as well as its charismatic leader, Ulrich Siegmund.
A victory for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt would be a significant milestone for the party, which has been gaining momentum in recent years. It could also have broader implications for German politics, potentially leading to a shift towards a harder line on immigration and European integration.
Experts warn that an AfD government could lead to significant changes in areas such as education and foreign policy, including creating separate classrooms for refugees and promoting a patriotism agenda that focuses less on the country's Nazi past. The party has also been accused of adopting tactics inspired by President Trump, including casting doubt on the integrity of absentee voting.
The outcome of the election is still uncertain, but it is clear that the AfD's rise to power would be a historic event with significant implications for Germany and Europe.
Written for “Far-Right Party's Rise in Germany” on 2026-09-07,
grounded in this article and the 41 other(s) covering the same event.
The confirmed, full results in Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt regional election are likely to be a major political headache for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) have governed the eastern state for more than 20 years.
asserted
Democrats → confirm → years
Sunday evening’s exit poll showing the far-right, pro-Russian, Alternative for Germany (AfD) potentially gaining 44.5 per cent of the vote is beyond the 40 per cent recent opinion polls had been showing and well in excess of the 20.8 per cent the party secured in 2021.
asserted
party → show → 2021
Mr Merz’s CDU fell to 18.5 per cent in the exit poll from 37.1 per cent in 2021.
asserted
CDU → fall → 2021
The CDU currently leads a coalition with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the free-market Free Democrats (FDP).
asserted
CDU → lead → Democrats
About 1.7 million people were eligible to vote in the east-central state of 2.1 million residents.
asserted
people → vote → residents
AfD had been looking to secure an absolute majority of above 50 per cent, to ensure they could try and implement their own radical agenda.
uncertain
they → look → agenda
So what happens now?
asserted
what → happen → ?
1. AfD seizes power
If AfD were to take control of the regional parliament, they would be the first far-right party to have power in either a regional or the national parliament since the Second World War.
asserted
they → seize → War
If this were to happen, what is known in Germany as the “firewall” – where parties create coalitions to keep far-right parties from power – would be breached for the first time.
asserted
parties → happen → time
AfD has been clear about what it would do if it were to take power.
asserted
it → take → power
It seeks to restrict immigration, quit the Euro and restore ties with Russia as most of Europe rallies around Ukraine.
asserted
most → seek → Ukraine
Based on the party’s “Vision 2026” election manifesto, victory in Saxony-Anhalt could invite sweeping reforms around state policy on migration, education, culture and the family.
uncertain
victory → base → migration
Under Germany’s federal system, state governments sit in the upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat, and also have wide powers in education, domestic security and culture.
asserted
governments → sit → education
An AfD-led state would launch a crackdown on migration, with a task force set up to coordinate quicker deportations.
asserted
force → lead → deportations
The children of refugees would be placed in separate classes at school to prevent what the party claims are “stresses” on the other children from being around different cultures.
uncertain
party → place → cultures
Meanwhile, children with disabilities would no longer be taught in the same classroom as those without, instead being sent to new schools.
asserted
children → teach → schools
Schools would also be banned from flying rainbow flags, and the government would exhaust “all legal avenues” to limit Islamic expression.
asserted
government → ban → expression
The party has claimed greater acceptance of what it offensively labels as “sexual deviations and non-reproductive lifestyles” has contributed to sinking birth rates and promises to aggressively promote “traditional” family structures consisting of a mother, father and children.
asserted
it → claim → mother
An AfD government would see major changes to the school curriculum around a “patriotic cultural policy”, extended to raising the German national flag daily and singing the national anthem at school celebrations.
asserted
government → see → celebrations
It would also advocate for removing war refugee status for Ukrainians in Germany as long as the conflict remains concentrated in eastern Ukraine, arguing they should seek refuge in western Ukraine.
asserted
they → advocate → Ukraine
The current structure of the public broadcasting system would be dismantled and funding withdrawn for some cultural institutions.
asserted
funding → dismantle → institutions
In terms of domestic security in Saxony, AfD in the state is assessed by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency as a “far-right extremist” group, which would create concerns about the intelligence AfD would be able to see if it was in charge of the regional parliament.
However, AfD will likely need the support of another party, depending on how many smaller parties pass the five per cent threshold needed to get seats.
asserted
parties → assess → seats
In Saxony-Anhalt, all the parties except the small far-left BSW party have ruled out joining a coalition with AfD.
If some smaller parties do not pass the threshold though, it would make AfD’s job easier, as it would make the chance of a coalition against it less likely.
The party will talk to any sensible party with whom it can find common ground on policy positions
asserted
it → rule → positions
, said AfD national co-leader Alice Weidel after the exit poll
2.
asserted
Weidel → say → poll
The CDU pulls together a coalition
The CDU has been hit hard, but may yet be able to pull together a “firewall coalition”.
uncertain
CDU → pull → coalition
That is what happened in the state of Thuringia in 2024, where AfD gained more than 30 per cent of the vote, but not enough for an absolute majority.
asserted
AfD → happen → majority
However, American think tank the Brookings Institution believes this will be difficult.
asserted
this → believe → ?
“The task of organising a CDU-led governing majority faces almost insurmountable difficulties,” it said in a recent briefing note, exacerbated by the CDU’s ruling out of any coalition with the staunchly socialist party Die Linke (The Left).
asserted
it → organise → party
With exit polls predicting a 9.4 per cent share of the vote for The Left behind the CDU’s 18.4 per cent, the party leadership has indicated it would be open to an arrangement formalising support for a CDU-led government over AfD. But the CDU faces internal divisions over a possible alliance with a party on what it regards as the far left.
Mr Merz said ahead of the election last Sunday that they would “assess the situation in light of the election results” and “do everything we can to prevent Saxony-Anhalt from falling into the hands of the radicals”.
State premier Sven Schulze congratulated AfD in the wake of the exit poll and acknowledged the result showed it was the strongest party.
asserted
it → predict → poll
If AfD is unable to rule outright, it could trigger a protracted process of coalition building by mainstream parties who are determined to keep a party under investigation for right-wing extremism by Germany’s domestic intelligence service.
uncertain
who → rule → service
The German government takes a hit regardless
However the political wrangling in the wake of the Saxony result ends up, it is clear that the manner of AfD’s win is important for their national standing and a blow to Mr Merz’s coalition government.
asserted
manner → take → government
Nationwide, AfD has swollen to become the most popular party, polling at 29 per cent, while Mr Merz has become the most unpopular chancellor since the founding of the Federal Republic, with 85 per cent of voters dissatisfied.
asserted
cent → swell → voters
Lars Klingbeil, co-leader of Germany’s centre-left SPD party and vice chancellor in Mr Merz’s governing coalition, said after the exit poll that the result of the Saxony-Anhalt state election is a signal for Berlin politics.
asserted
result → govern → politics
The result is a reason to reflect on the federal government’s policies, Mr Klingbeil told public broadcaster ZDF.
asserted
Klingbeil → reflect → ZDF
“And rest assured, that is what we will do.”
asserted
we → rest → what
Mr Merz has already sought to create a harder line on immigration, in a move designed to try and stem the rise of AfD. There will no doubt be a greater push from AfD to try and move the needle on national policy, while their pro-Russia stance could be an issue when it comes to European support for Ukraine, given the nation has previously been accused of moving cautiously when it comes to handing Ukraine weapons to fight off Russia's invasion.
uncertain
it → seek → invasion
Mr Merz will face an increasing level of political pressure about his own job and government, something AfD will be all too happy to try and press home in both future regional elections and the wider national polls.
asserted
AfD → face → elections
