PRESIDENT TRUMP DECLARED YET AGAIN this week that the war with Iran is almost over.
asserted
war → declare → Iran
“We have to finish up,” he said.
asserted
he → have → ?
“And it’s only a question of which way: Do we want to do it the nice way or the not-so-nice way?”
asserted
we → ’ → it
The unequivocalness of the president’s prediction—made months into a war he repeatedly said would last only days—set off alarm bells in my head.
asserted
he → make → head
My experience in combat and in planning for operations and global contingencies taught me always to question when I or anyone else expressed certainty about the future—especially as it concerns war.
asserted
it → teach → war
Iran has suffered enormous military and economic damage, and the United States has demonstrated overwhelming conventional military superiority.
asserted
States → suffer → superiority
But that doesn’t mean we know how this will end.
asserted
this → mean → ?
Following reporting that the White House and military were preparing a new round of attacks on Iran before the midterms, the president announced Thursday that “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.”
asserted
we → follow → 3rd
This, too, suggests the president feels utter confidence about how events will unfold.
uncertain
events → suggest → confidence
What if the enemy doesn’t do what we expect him to do?
asserted
him → do → what
What if an operation takes longer than anticipated, an ally refuses to cooperate, another adversary sees an opportunity, or a seemingly unrelated crisis suddenly affects our operation?
asserted
crisis → take → operation
Most importantly, what if one of the assumptions on which the entire plan is based turns out to be wrong?
asserted
plan → base → which
They look beyond the immediate area where forces are fighting to the larger area where events may occur that could eventually affect the mission.
uncertain
that → look → mission
A commander who focuses exclusively on the enemy directly to their front is eventually going to be surprised.
asserted
who → focus → front
That’s why I would be uncomfortable today with any prediction that the Middle East war is about to end.
asserted
war → ’ → prediction
YEMEN IS THE FIRST PLACE I would look for reasons why the war might continue for months or years.
uncertain
war → look → months
After Houthi gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast last month, Saudi-supported Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive and have retaken some territory along the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
asserted
forces → support → Strait
Saudi airpower, backed by American intelligence, has played a major role in that offensive.
asserted
airpower → back → offensive
They have responded with ballistic missiles and drones against Saudi targets, including King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, as well as oil refineries and economic infrastructure.
asserted
They → respond → Riyadh
Glance at any map of the region and the problem becomes obvious.
asserted
problem → glance → region
The Strait of Hormuz sits on one side of the Arabian Peninsula and Bab al-Mandab sits on the other.
asserted
Mandab → sit → other
Hormuz controls access between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, while Bab al-Mandab connects the Indian Ocean with the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and Europe.
asserted
Mandab → control → Sea
That generates another round of what-if questions.
asserted
That → generate → questions
What if the Houthis cannot defeat Saudi-backed forces on land but can still make passage through Bab al-Mandab prohibitively dangerous?
asserted
passage → defeat → Mandab
What if missiles, drones, or mines convince commercial shipping companies and their insurers that the Red Sea is simply not worth the risk, and ships begin diverting around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing shipping times, fuel consumption, and costs?
asserted
ships → convince → times
The military campaign might be going well in Iran, while the strategic and economic consequences of the war worsen.
uncertain
consequences → go → war
Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt rarely play major roles in American foreign policy, but tensions among them are rising at the same time the war on the Arabian side of the Red Sea is expanding.
asserted
war → play → Sea
Ethiopia is again experiencing serious fighting in the northern province of Tigray, producing the worst violence in that country since the catastrophic 2020–2022 civil war in which between 100,000 and 800,000 people were killed.
asserted
people → experience → which
Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic relations, and Eritrean forces are reportedly more than 60 miles into Ethiopian territory.
uncertain
forces → sever → territory
The Ethiopian government has accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of supporting its opponents—allegations all three governments deny.
asserted
governments → accuse → allegations
Egypt and Ethiopia have expelled diplomats, and the African Union has publicly warned Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt to exercise restraint.
asserted
Union → expel → restraint
Ethiopia wants reliable access to the Red Sea, which it lost at the end of its sixteen-year civil war in 1991 when Eritrea became an independent state.
asserted
Eritrea → want → 1991
Ethiopia, with more than 130 million people, understandably considers dependable maritime access an economic and strategic interest.
asserted
access → consider → people
Eritrea sees the issue differently, because Ethiopian access to the sea is likely to come at Eritrea’s expense.
asserted
access → see → expense
What happens if the fighting inside Ethiopia spills across the Eritrean border?
asserted
fighting → happen → border
What if both sides of the Bab al-Mandab become the settings for combat at the same time, and passage through the Suez Canal is cut off?
asserted
passage → become → Canal
What knock-on effects will that have for America’s on-again-off-again conflict with the Houthis, for America’s security partners in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and for the world’s patience in allowing these major waterways to be semi-strangled indefinitely?
asserted
waterways → knock → patience
Cairo has its own long-running dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the waters of the Nile.
asserted
Cairo → have → Nile
Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia have also been drawing closer in their positions on Red Sea security.
asserted
Egypt → draw → security
None of that means Egypt—with a population of 120 million—is preparing for war with Ethiopia, but a military planner looking beyond the immediate area of operations would certainly put Egypt into an area of concern.
asserted
planner → mean → concern
…and 21 more, not listed.
The Aporia
