The Aporia
In early March 2026, President Donald Trump declared victory over Iran, despite escalating tensions. The U.S. had spent more than $43 billion on the conflict by then, contrary to Trump's prediction of lower oil prices; instead, diesel prices in California reached a high of $9.99 per gallon due to supply concerns.
In October 2026, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until seven conditions outlined in an interim June agreement with the U.S. are met. This closure has disrupted one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments through this crucial waterway.
Tehran insists its position is firm, rejecting recent American proposals as unilateral demands. Qalibaf warned that Iran will respond more forcefully to any renewed military confrontation. The Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi echoed this stance, declaring there would be no military solution to the ongoing conflict and emphasizing the need for a "dignified diplomatic resolution."
The U.S., Israel, and their allies have been applying increased economic pressure on Iran while scaling back military operations since late February. Despite these efforts, negotiations remain at an impasse as Iran continues its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
A campaign of heavy bombardment failed to bring a decisive close to the war launched by the US and Israel in late February, and Washington in recent weeks has dialled back military operations in favour of economic pressure.