The Aporia
On October 6, 2026, US President Donald Trump claimed during a speech that nobody knows who is running Iran, stating that its leaders are gone and no one has emerged clearly as the new leader since the start of the US-Israeli war on February 28. According to Trump, this uncertainty complicates matters significantly. However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei countered this claim by asserting that Washington is well aware of Iran's decision-making system and its current leaders, blaming instead contradictory messaging from US officials for any confusion.
The conflict between the US-Israeli coalition and Iran has been ongoing for eight months and has resulted in thousands of casualties and millions displaced. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed early on, was succeeded by his son Mojtaba Khamenei, though he hasn't appeared publicly since being injured in the same strike that took his father's life. The war also led to increased fuel prices, posing a risk to Trump’s Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections where control of Congress is at stake due to concerns over high living costs driven by rising gasoline and diesel prices.
Fuel prices that have risen in response to the war are also a risk to Mr. Trump’s Republican Party ahead of the November U.S. midterm elections in which control of Congress is at stake