As both Canada and the United States enjoyed a day off and family BBQs on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump was busy posting on his social media platform.
asserted
Trump → enjoy → platform
Over 50% of their revenue comes from the United States,” the president wrote.
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president → come → States
He complained that Canada blocked Gulfstream Aerospace from doing business in Canada — a reference to a certification issue earlier this year that has since been resolved.
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that → complain → issue
The 114-word missive also included a number of “America First” rallying cries about buying, flying, and sailing American — and enjoying American liquor.
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missive → include → liquor
Bombardier reported total revenue of $9.55 billion in 2025, with over half generated by sales to U.S. customers.
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half → report → customers
The timing of Trump’s Labour Day post was telling, with 12 hours before Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on more than 700 U.S. products entering Canada — covering CA$27.6 billion in annual imports — were set to take effect at 12.01 am Tuesday.
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tariffs → enter → am
They have since been implemented.
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They → implement → ?
So was Trump’s post a sign that he was rattled by Ottawa’s refusal to back down over tariffs?
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he → rattle → tariffs
At the very least, it was more evidence that the president is willing to go extreme for leverage, analysts say.
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analysts → go → leverage
“I think (Trump) is definitely frustrated that Canada hasn’t caved.
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Canada → think → ?
He knows the retaliatory tariffs will have economic impacts in the United States, and he’s hoping more escalation will force Canada to back down,” said Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities.
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Kavanagh → know → Priorities
But Richard Shimooka, senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, says Trump’s additional pressure is likely part of the deal-making process.
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pressure → say → process
“I think that he tries to create more and more and more leverage, and at a certain point a deal gets made however it is, and then that’s it,” he said, pointing to what happened between the U.S. and North Korea.
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what → think → U.S.
He recalled how Washington and Pyongyang exchanged nuclear threats, and then, “all of a sudden, they’re best buddies,” while noting that he’s not sure a resolution is coming for Ottawa anytime soon.
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resolution → recall → Ottawa
Shimooda also questioned whether “this is smart policy for them” with the U.S. midterms looming and polling in the U.S. showing low levels of support for Trump’s tariffs on Canada.
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polling → question → Canada
Hurting Bombardier, which has several U.S.-based facilities and employs more than 3,000 people, would mean affecting U.S. voters in those areas.
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which → hurt → areas
Shimooka also suggested it may be time to wait Trump out because his power is waning.
uncertain
power → suggest → Trump
“In the second half of the second term, the political power of a president at this stage is increasingly limited,” he said.
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he → say → stage
The midterms are also among the reasons why Kavanagh doesn’t think Trump will follow through with his threat.
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Trump → think → threat
“I don’t think he’ll do it because, given the focus on inflation, increasing U.S. manufacturing, and countering deindustrialization, and economic concerns going into the midterms, it would just be a very strange move to alienate a really important group of voters.”
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it → think → voters
She also pointed out that U.S. policy doesn’t change by decree of a social post.
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policy → point → post
“He can’t just ban their sale,” she said, while noting what he can do: “He can try to impose tariffs.
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He → ban → tariffs
He can impose other economic barriers.
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He → impose → barriers
He can ask the FAA to decertify them.
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He → ask → them
There are other things he can do, but he can’t just ban it like that.”
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he → be → that
This has become, in his head, a way to punish Canada.”
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This → become → Canada
Shimooka said he thought decertification would quickly land the U.S. administration in court.
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decertification → say → court
Christopher Coates, director of foreign policy, national defence, and national security at Macdonald-Laurier Institute, thinks tariffs would be the most likely route.
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tariffs → think → Institute
“The ground is a little bit prepared if they wanted to go down that path,” he said, referring to the Section 232 aviation tariffs.
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he → want → tariffs
If Trump’s threat becomes a reality, Coates said Bombardier would survive.
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Bombardier → become → ?
But he also said it would “probably have to consider moving (its) operations out of Canada,” meaning the final assembly facilities would likely need to move south.
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facilities → say → Canada
Trump has taken aim at aerospace companies before — including Bombardier — but could this latest smack in the Canada-U.S. trade spat bleed over into the longstanding defense cooperation between the two countries?
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smack → take → countries
Could it hinder Arctic defense, NORAD and cross-border intelligence sharing and operations?
uncertain
it → hinder → defense
Shimooka is not too concerned at this point, noting that the military-to-military relationship is fine.
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relationship → note → military
His defence colleagues “see this as business as usual,” he said, noting that’s why Admiral Samuel Paparo recently reacted so negatively when he was asked whether he would follow an order to attack Canada.
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he → see → Canada
Paparo called it “preposterous.”
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Paparo → call → it
The friction is starting to show at the senior political and bureaucratic level, Shimooka said — at the undersecretary and deputy-minister level, where figures like Elbridge Colby are pushing a harder line.
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figures → start → line
Coates, who worked in NORAD headquarters during the first Trump administration, says staffers were aware of frictions and trade matters but that the joint military organisation “remains largely apolitical, and it’s in the best interest of both of our nations that our militaries are largely apolitical,” he said.
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he → work → nations
But the danger may not be an imminent rupture of an organisation like NORAD so much as a gradual corrosion of the political confidence and day-to-day cooperation that make continental defense work efficiently.
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defense → make → day
“This approach to working with Canada on economic issues is an own goal,” said Kavanagh, noting that while the U.S. doesn’t need Canada for its defence cooperation, the relationship does make defending North America a lot easier than it would be otherwise.
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it → work → America
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
