Prime Minister Mark Carney has landed in Turkey for the first-ever dedicated bilateral visit by a Canadian prime minister to Ankara — his latest attempt to diversify Canada’s trading and strategic partnerships amid the trade war with Washington.
asserted
Carney → land → Washington
Carney will meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Thursday, reportedly to discuss furthering the countries’ free-trade talks launched at July’s NATO summit.
uncertain
Carney → meet → summit
They will also talk about greater defence and energy cooperation.
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They → talk → cooperation
Some of the PM’s trips to Europe this year have generated global headlines — from his Davos speech in January to last month’s proposal that Canada could become an associate member of the European Union.
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Canada → generate → Union
Both drew sharp rebukes from the White House.
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Both → draw → House
Will his visit to Turkey lead to more criticism?
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visit → lead → criticism
Anything is possible, analysts say, given U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpredictable nature.
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analysts → say → nature
“Carney could sneeze, and Trump would be upset,” said Sinan Ciddi, senior fellow and director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Turkey program.
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Ciddi → sneeze → program
While he acknowledged that a deal presented as a rebuke to Washington could potentially invite a backlash from Trump, Ciddi doesn’t really think presidential outrage over Carney’s visit is likely.
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outrage → acknowledge → visit
Bessma Momani, senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, said any criticism from Trump is most likely to target Carney personally, not the talks or any agreement made.
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criticism → say → Carney
“I don’t expect … commentary about the bilateral as much as perhaps to Carney himself,” she said.
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she → expect → Carney
But given that Trump and Erdoğan have a good relationship, and both are deferential to one another, the experts doubt Ankara’s outreach to Canada will draw much ire.
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outreach → give → ire
“Hosting a leader who has been at odds with the U.S. should not be seen as a message to the United States,” said Bulent Aliriz, senior associate of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Turkey project.
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Aliriz → host → project
“(Erdoğan) wants to develop the relationship with Canada, like with many other countries, but never at the expense of … President Trump and the U.S.,” he added.
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he → want → Trump
Ciddi also sees any criticism of Erdoğan as unlikely.
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Ciddi → see → Erdoğan
“Trump hasn’t called him out on it in other parts of the world.
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Trump → call → world
I don’t think that Canada appropriating military capabilities from Turkey is going to upset Trump,” he said.
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he → think → Trump
Erdoğan and Carney, analysts say, are expected to discuss drone and ammunition manufacturing, and potentially a move to set up Turkish production inside Canada.
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analysts → say → Canada
“If Carney does make a deal on drones, it would be about manufacturing them (in Canada),” said Momani.
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Momani → make → Canada
Alper Coşkun, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, also pointed to Turkey’s advanced defence industrial production, noting that Canadian interest in Turkish weapons could extend to automated weapon systems.
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interest → point → systems
Like many NATO members, Canada is working to replenish its artillery ammunition stocks and expand production.
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Canada → work → production
Turkey and Canada could forge a deal on conventional ammunition and drones, Ciddi says.
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Ciddi → forge → ammunition
Rather than upsetting Washington, he suggested any such deal could be sold as the NATO burden-sharing Trump has long advocated for.
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Trump → upset → sharing
“If this is spun the right way,” said Ciddi, “there could be … a foreseeable sort of road for Trump actually praising anything that’s reached.”
Because Turkey needs energy, the analysts expect Erdoğan and Carney to have substantive talks about LNG and nuclear power.
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Erdoğan → spin → LNG
Turkey is “always looking for energy and know-how,” said Momani, calling it the “sector to watch” from this week’s talks.
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Momani → look → talks
She sees nuclear energy as the strongest of the prospects, followed by defence, because Turkey wants energy supplies and technology, while Canada has the expertise.
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Canada → see → expertise
Coşkun pointed to civilian nuclear cooperation, as well as possible Canadian LNG sales and mining expertise, as strong possible connections.
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Coşkun → point → connections
“Potentially, Turkey’s civilian nuclear program is an area where Canada can provide significant help and can present itself as a very useful partner,” he said.
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he → provide → partner
Given that the volume of trade is currently very low between the two, Ciddi said the “easiest thing that they could conclude is a major expansion of bilateral trade,” noting how Turkey offers advanced manufactured goods.
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Turkey → give → goods
Anything that Erdoğan does comes at a cost, and I would say that cost is a reputational cost
Furthering discussions about a free trade deal and increasing Canadian investments in Turkey is important to Erdoğan, says Coşkun, given that Turkey faces potential disruptions with the EU’s proposed “Made in Europe” rules, which could favour EU-made products over Turkish goods.
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which → do → goods
“Canada can’t offset the amount of trade that Turkey has with Europe, which is its biggest trading partner, but at the end of the day, to sort of broaden that agenda would be a welcome sign for Ankara, and something that Erdoğan can use positively, I think,” he said.
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he → offset → that
Momani sees Canada as the more eager trade partner of the two, given the trade tensions with the U.S., and says a successful visit would need to show “real dollars and cents, and companies doing business with each other.”
“Whether the results will match the rhetoric, which I’m sure will be flowery and positive, we’ll see,” said Aliriz.
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Aliriz → see → which
Ciddi, meanwhile, is concerned by the political consequences of greater Canadian defence engagement with Turkey.
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Ciddi → concern → Turkey
“I would say, look, Canada should go elsewhere,” he said, noting that Erdoğan gains prestige from Carney’s visit.
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Erdoğan → say → visit
“We’ve seen Turkish escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean towards Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, potentially a threat to the Israelis in the Middle East.
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We → see → East
We’ve seen Turkish largesse and growth of military activity inside Syria,” he said, pointing to how the “Europeans don’t say anything.”
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Europeans → see → anything
“They don’t say anything because Erdoğan has convinced them that Turkey is a vital security partner, by selling them weapons — high-end, medium-end weapons such as drones, such as combat armoured carrier vehicles, munitions, all this sort of stuff.”
Rather than worrying about Trump’s response, he advises Carney to consider what closer Canada-Turkey defence ties could mean for Turkey.
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ties → say → Turkey
“We’ve seen the consequences of major Western allies engaging with Turkey and enabling Erdoğan’s regime,” he said.
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he → see → regime
“A power such as Canada should not engage with the Erdoğan government.
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power → engage → government
Anything that Erdoğan does comes at a cost, and I would say that cost is a reputational cost.”
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cost → do → cost
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
