THE collective memory of Muslim societies, particularly in the West and South Asia, is based on the persistent idea that since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire they have been in need of a joint response to challenges ranging from politics to defence.
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they → base → defence
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia may be seen as something of a pioneer on this front with the creation of the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism in 2015, which was partly the basis for the recently concluded Makkah Joint Defence Agreement.
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which → see → Agreement
However, Pakistan has always championed such ambitions.
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Pakistan → champion → ambitions
The roots go much further back, with the Baghdad Pact representing an important milestone in that journey.
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Pact → go → journey
The concept of a collective Muslim response has been conceived and framed in different ways, from the idea of the ummah to its more structured institutional expression within the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation.
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concept → conceive → Cooperation
Its character has continued to evolve as changing political objectives have redirected the ideological orientation of Muslim states.
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objectives → continue → states
In Pakistan’s case, however, this idea has shaped not only the country’s ideology but also its internal politics and models of state structure.
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idea → shape → structure
There is little doubt that Pakistan’s growing role in the Gulf, beginning with Trump’s Gaza peace plan, followed by the Islamabad MoU and now the Makkah accord, has boosted the country’s confidence.
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role → be → confidence
However, when its leadership looks inward at the political and economic conditions, the contrast undermines some of the confidence gained from its successes in an evolving geopolitical environment.
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contrast → look → environment
This disparity frustrates the power elite, that wants to address internal problems immediately and sustain the country’s momentum in the external arena.
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that → frustrate → arena
To achieve internal stability and order comparable to that in Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, Pakistan’s other regional partners, the power elite here appears prepared to take several political risks.
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elite → achieve → risks
These could include major administrative engineering, such as the creation of new provinces, a step that would come at considerable political cost.
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that → include → cost
Pakistan is deepening its West Asian ties to bolster its defence power and strategic weight.
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Pakistan → deepen → power
This argument is not intended to evaluate the costs and benefits of creating new provinces.
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argument → intend → provinces
Rather, it seeks to trace the trigger that makes the power elite nervous when its external successes do not correspond with domestic political realities and the state of the economy.
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successes → seek → economy
Yet an important dimension is often missing from the debate: the triangle of ideology, statecraft and geography.
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dimension → miss → ideology
Pakistan and Turkiye share a geographical anxiety: their military power and ambitions do not fully correspond with the territories they control, while their opportunities for geographical expansion are extremely limited.
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opportunities → share → expansion
This creates a middle-power anxiety about sustaining and enhancing their military and defence capabilities.
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This → create → capabilities
Both countries are responding to this challenge in their own ways.
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countries → respond → ways
Turkiye is pursuing regional groupings, alliances and transnational Turkic partnerships.
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Turkiye → pursue → groupings
Pakistan, meanwhile, appears to be abandoning its old strategy of ‘strategic depth’ or the attempt to expand its influence to neighbouring territories to overcome its geographical anxieties.
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Pakistan → appear → anxieties
Instead, it is engaging more deeply in West Asia to strengthen its defence capabilities and strategic weight.
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it → engage → capabilities
The purpose is obvious: Pakistan faces a much larger geographical and military power in India.
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Pakistan → face → India
Saudi Arabia faces a different middle-power dilemma.
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Arabia → face → dilemma
Its primary concerns are sustaining economic stability and protecting itself from regional forces that it perceives as ideologically hostile or hegemonically ambitious, principally Iran and Israel.
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it → sustain → that
Saudi Arabia has learned to coexist with Israel, but Israel’s hegemonic ambitions continue to generate anxiety about the future regional order.
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ambitions → learn → order
Riyadh is also concerned about hostile forces near its borders, particularly in Yemen, where Iran has effectively projected its influence.
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Iran → project → influence
Pakistan is now going a step further by undergoing a state-centric ideological recalibration.
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Pakistan → go → recalibration
This transformation does not yet match Saudi-style social liberalisation or the secular-nationalist transformation associated with Nasser’s Egypt.
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transformation → match → Egypt
Pakistan is still struggling to find a clear direction.
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Pakistan → struggle → direction
Its emerging model appears to combine Mohammed bin Salman’s state-controlled “moderate Islam”, the mutually reinforcing nationalism, military authority and state-regulated religious discourse of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s Egypt, and Turkiye’s religious-conservative identity, nationalism and defence-industrial ambition.
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model → emerge → Egypt
Briefly, the power elite wants religion to remain under state authority.
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religion → want → authority
It seeks a transition from transnational Islamic solidarity to the national interest; the creation of a modern, technologically capable Muslim state; religious scholars who support national cohesion rather than challenge statecraft or the ambitions of the ruling elite; and centralised control over security and foreign policy.
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who → seek → security
However, the power elite also believes that the existing political order, governance model and constitutional arrangements obstruct the achievement of lasting stability.
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order → believe → stability
Interestingly, the Afghan Taliban, once close allies of Pakistan’s establishment, have taught it an important lesson: Islamist allies may possess their own nationalism, interests and territorial ambitions, which may not correspond with the vision of another country’s power elite.
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which → teach → elite
Middle powers with complicated neighbourhoods and significant defence capabilities often have additional strategic thoughts.
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powers → have → thoughts
They imagine renewed glory through alliances with friendly states possessing compatible capabilities and ambition.
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They → imagine → capabilities
Major powers frequently exploit this tendency by encouraging middle powers to form alliances.
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powers → exploit → alliances
Washington is encouraging the emerging defence architecture that has taken shape through the Makkah accord.
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that → encourage → accord
China and Iran, meanwhile, are waiting for the US to reduce its regional footprint before revealing or advancing their own designs.
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US → wait → designs
…and 5 more, not listed.
The Aporia
