IT is difficult to imagine a single small gesture reducing decades-old hostility between two archrivals.
asserted
IT → imagine → archrivals
Yet, such a moment was witnessed recently when Alok Dimri, India’s national coordinator for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, visited Islamabad for a meeting.
asserted
Dimri → witness → meeting
Talking to the state media, he said he was happy to be in Pakistan.
asserted
he → talk → Pakistan
It was a simple statement, but perhaps one that may ease some of the cross-border bitterness.
uncertain
that → ease → bitterness
Mr Dimri said this while visiting the National Council of Arts in Islamabad.
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Dimri → say → Islamabad
The heritage, art, and culture that Pakistan and India share have repeatedly fallen victim to toxic narratives designed to provoke hate.
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Pakistan → share → hate
Yet the cultural link carries a powerful sense of mutual belonging.
asserted
link → carry → belonging
It may be premature to read too much into the Indian delegate’s visit or to view his words as evidence of a thaw after last May’s stand-off.
uncertain
It → read → off
Still, the episode offers some hope: if leaders on both sides choose to move forward, the dialogue could quickly regain momentum.
uncertain
dialogue → offer → momentum
However, optimism should be tempered — as should any expectation that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will arrive in Islamabad to attend the SCO summit.
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Modi → temper → summit
If he did, it would be a miracle, and the biggest surprise in decades — even bigger than Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to Islamabad in 1988 to attend the Saarc summit or Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s arrival in Lahore in 1999.
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it → do → 1999
Both occasions had generated enormous hope for peace between the two neighbours.
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occasions → generate → neighbours
What actually followed is a familiar story.
asserted
followed → follow → ?
Another miracle would be if Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the Islamabad SCO summit next year.
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Putin → attend → summit
Pakistan is more curious about this visit and hopes it may trigger a major shift in its geopolitics and ambitions in Central Asia, while influencing the regional discourse in ways that would irritate India.
uncertain
that → hop → India
Pakistan would be keen to enhance its defence cooperation with Russia, but particularly interested in making some progress on the much-discussed railway from Moscow to Islamabad and establishing a freight corridor using existing 7,000-kilometre-long railway networks, with Pakistan linked to Russia through Central Asia and/or Iran.
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Pakistan → enhance → Asia
Over the decades, Pakistan, the Central Asian states, and Iran have conceived many transnational projects, and each time with great enthusiasm, yet none has materialised.
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none → conceive → enthusiasm
Afghanistan is always made to bear the burden of the blame because of its complex relationship with Pakistan.
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Afghanistan → make → Pakistan
Russia is likely to remain cautious about deepening its cooperation with Pakistan.
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Russia → remain → Pakistan
Is it not interesting that the conventional wars fought by India and Pakistan collectively may not have lasted for more than a few weeks, and that Pakistan fought its longest war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan?
uncertain
Pakistan → fight → Afghanistan
Pakistan and the Afghan mujahideen, together with the US, defeated the Russians, which was followed by the dismantling of the Soviet state.
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which → defeat → state
The Pakistani leadership still takes pride in that success.
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leadership → take → success
Of course, times have changed, and Pakistan is looking to cultivate new economic and defence opportunities.
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Pakistan → change → opportunities
Russia, however, is likely to remain cautious about deepening its cooperation with Pakistan.
asserted
Russia → remain → Pakistan
This is not because of their bitter past, from which both sides have moved on, but because of divergent regional interests, particularly over Afghanistan, and Russia’s deep and long-standing engagement with India.
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sides → move → India
Russian-Indian defence and economic cooperation is not necessarily an obstacle to developing ties with Pakistan.
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cooperation → develop → Pakistan
But it does mean that Islamabad cannot be regarded as a preferred partner in that context.
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Islamabad → mean → context
The disparity in economic relations is significant: Pakistan’s bilateral trade with Russia is less than half a billion dollars, compared with around $69bn in India-Russia trade.
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trade → compare → trade
India maintains a high level of military engagement with Russia through multiple military-technical cooperation frameworks, including joint research and development, co-development, co-production, and after-sales support.
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India → maintain → sales
By contrast, Russia’s defence engagement with Pakistan remains selective and falls well short of a strategic military partnership.
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engagement → remain → partnership
At the same time, India’s diversification of its defence partnerships has not significantly weakened its relationship with Russia.
asserted
diversification → weaken → Russia
Moscow may have reservations about some aspects of New Delhi’s growing defence ties with other countries, but there are no clear signs of a fundamental deterioration in bilateral relations.
uncertain
Moscow → have → relations
Russia’s interest in Pakistan is, therefore, largely geopolitical — maintaining engagement with Islamabad allows Moscow to show that its international network of partnerships is broad, while also keeping channels open with Pakistan’s political and security leaders, including those who have close ties with US President Donald Trump.
asserted
who → maintain → Trump
Public diplomacy is a domain through which Russia keeps its support club intact and seeks to enhance it, engaging Pakistani media, academics, opinion-makers, and policymakers through exchange programmes.
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Russia → keep → programmes
The SCO is another platform Russia uses more extensively than other partners for public diplomacy.
asserted
Russia → use → diplomacy
Russia and Pakistan share counterterrorism concerns, but their approaches to Afghanistan differ sharply.
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approaches → share → Afghanistan
Russia has recognised the Taliban regime, but Pakistan is fighting a tough war against terrorism and sees Afghanistan as a source of the war.
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Pakistan → recognise → war
In geo-economic terms, they have different priorities.
asserted
they → have → priorities
Russia wants Afghanistan in the camp of its Central Asian allies.
asserted
Afghanistan → want → allies
At the same time, Pakistan is a major partner of the US in areas where the interests of the two countries converge in Afghanistan.
asserted
interests → converge → Afghanistan
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
