President Donald Trump on Thursday said he is following the upcoming Brazilian election “very closely,” referring to Brazil as a “very important" country.
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he → say → country
"The people of Brazil are fantastic people,” he told reporters outside the White House.
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he → tell → House
“It’s a very important election.”
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It → ’ → ?
The U.S. State Department later announced the suspension of its consular services in Brazil ahead of the election taking place on Sunday, citing unspecified security concerns.
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election → announce → concerns
“U.S. citizens seeking emergency assistance during this time should not come to the Embassy, the Consulates, or other U.S. diplomatic facilities,” the security alert advised.
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alert → seek → Embassy
Brazilians are heading to the polls for a set of federal elections spanning congressional and gubernatorial races, alongside the first round of the presidential election votes.
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Brazilians → head → votes
It’s set to be a decisive moment for Latin America’s largest nation, as the region has seen a shift toward the right in recent years.
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region → set → years
An Oct. 25 runoff is expected, as polls show a tight contest between leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and far-right Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted last year for plotting a coup to overturn his 2022 election loss.
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who → expect → loss
Trump led the conservative voices denouncing the conviction, referring to the trial as a “witch hunt.”
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Trump → lead → hunt
While Trump has acknowledged his active interest as Brazil votes on its political future, there are concerns he could be too involved.
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he → acknowledge → future
Trump and his Administration have been accused of attempting to interfere with the high-stakes overseas election.
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Trump → accuse → election
In a letter sent to Secretary of State Marco Rubio in late September, Democratic lawmakers expressed “grave concern” over what they referred to as “the Administration’s coordinated effort to threaten our strategic alliance with Brazil and undermine the Western Hemisphere’s second-largest democracy ahead of its upcoming presidential election.”
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they → send → election
“Over the course of President Trump’s second term, we have seen U.S. officials engage in a sustained, multifaceted campaign of interference and destabilization in Brazil,” the lawmakers said in the Sept. 24 letter, signed by 30 House Democrats and Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who caucuses with the Democratic Party.
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who → see → Party
In another letter sent to Rubio on Monday, three Democratic Senators voiced similar concerns about potential U.S. interference.
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Senators → send → interference
“This effort first escalated sharply during the summer of 2025, with the [U.S.] Administration deploying tariffs and targeted sanctions to attempt to shape the Brazilian Supreme Court’s verdict in the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro on charges of attempting to foment a military coup to stay in power,” said the Senators, noting that the tariff pressure escalated in July this year when the Trump Administration moved to impose a new 25% tariff on many imports from Brazil—a decision labeled a “lamentable milestone” by Lula’s office.
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Administration → escalate → office
The Senators argued that the “campaign directed at Brazil’s authorities resumed with the appointment of Darren Beattie as a senior advisor on Brazil issues in the State Department.”
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campaign → argue → Department
Beattie served as a White House speech writer in Trump’s first term, but was axed for attending a gathering of white supremacists.
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Beattie → serve → supremacists
He returned to the fold early on in Trump’s second term.
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He → return → term
When serving as undersecretary for public diplomacy and public affairs last year, he called one of Brazil’s Supreme Court Judges a “key architect of the censorship and persecution complex directed against Bolsonaro and his supporters.”
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he → serve → Bolsonaro
Accusing the Trump Administration of using “diplomatic, economic, and political pressure in ways that risk weakening [Brazil’s] democratic institutions [and] undermining confidence in Brazil's electoral process,” the Senators closed the letter by asking the Administration to “commit to recognizing the certified outcome of Brazil's 2026 democratic elections.”
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Senators → accuse → elections
The White House has staunchly rejected claims of interference in Brazil’s elections.
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House → reject → elections
“Conservative leaders are winning elections across the Western Hemisphere on their own merit because everyone sees the success of President Trump’s policies,” said White House spokesperson Anna Kelly in a statement to TIME.
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Kelly → win → TIME
President Lula has also expressed concern over Trump’s interest in his country’s election.
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Lula → express → election
“I have already told President Trump it is very important that the U.S. do not interfere in Brazil’s elections,” he said in a Sept. 22 interview.
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he → tell → interview
Lula added that he is “very worried about Marco Rubio,” claiming that the U.S. Secretary of State “is very closely connected to Bolsonaro’s people,” though he stressed that this was only “suspicion.”
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this → add → people
TIME has reached out to the State Department for comment.
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TIME → reach → comment
How the Trump Administration has been accused of meddling in Brazil’s affairs
Trump has not formally endorsed either candidate in Brazil’s presidential race, but his defense of former Brazilian President Bolsonaro, who was last year sentenced to 27 years in prison, is well documented.
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who → accuse → prison
After Trump criticized the trial proceedings as a “terrible thing” in July 2025, the Trump Administration increased pressure on Brazil’s government by imposing punishing 50% tariffs— extended in part due to Bolsonaro’s treatment in the courts—and directing the office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to investigate trade relations with the country.
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Administration → criticize → country
The State Department added to the pressure later that same month, when Rubio called Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes’ actions a “political witch hunt against Jair Bolsonaro” and announced visa restrictions on Moraes, unspecified judicial allies, and their immediate families.
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Rubio → add → Moraes
Feliciano de Sá Guimarães, an associate professor at the Institute of International Relations at the University of São Paulo, says Lula was able to turn the economic pressure into a political argument of his own.
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Lula → say → own
“Lula realized that he could play [these threats] in his favor for electoral purposes,” he says, explaining that Lula used the concept of “rally round the flag,” meaning that once a country is targeted by another, “the incumbent President can rally the people and say, ‘look our sovereignty is under attack.’
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sovereignty → realize → attack
”
The theme of sovereignty has featured prominently in Lula’s 2026 government manifesto, which points to Trump’s tariffs as damaging the Brazilian economy.
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which → feature → economy
Guimarães says the U.S. Administration has since slightly altered its strategy, favoring an approach that could instead benefit Lula’s opposition.
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that → say → opposition
Flávio Bolsonaro met with Trump, Rubio, and Vice President J.D. Vance at the White House in May.
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Bolsonaro → meet → May
Trump later described the Brazilian lawmaker as a “smart young man, who loves his country very much.”
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who → describe → country
Shortly after that meeting, the U.S. Administration on May 28 designated Primeiro Comando da Capital and Comando Vermelho—two Brazilian gangs—as terrorist organizations, with Bolsonaro appearing to take credit for the move in the media.
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Bolsonaro → designate → media
Guimarães says the issue may have resonated in Brazil due to public concerns about crime.
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issue → say → crime
“Brazilians are so desperate with the situation of crime in the country that they are resorting to support any initiative, whether it's coming from the federal government or a foreign power to fix the problem,” Guimarães explains, so the move could be seen to strengthen Bolsonaro’s chances with the electorate.
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move → resort → electorate
Economic pressure has continued as well.
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pressure → continue → ?
After ordering the USTR to investigate Brazil’s trade practices last year, the office imposed 25% tariffs on the country in July under Section 301, for what it described as unfair trade practices.
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it → order → practices
…and 18 more, not listed.
The Aporia
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