Don’t look now, but suddenly the U.S. Senate is in play
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- The four-seat gain Democrats need to win control once seemed all but out of reach.
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Democrats → look → reach
- Odds are looking up, though the party still faces a tough path, with toss-up races in a half dozen (mostly red) states.
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party → look → states
Today we discuss political forecasting, death and taxes.
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we → discuss → forecasting
We’re just 65 days from election day.
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We → ’re → day
Time flies when you’re watching American democracy teeter.
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democracy → fly → ?
Still think Republicans will lose the House?
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Republicans → think → House
Your friendly political columnist makes no predictions.
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columnist → make → predictions
It’s hard to know the future, seeing as how it hasn’t happened yet.
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it → ’ → future
But our best guide — historical trends — suggest Democrats are exceedingly likely to seize control on Nov. 3.
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Democrats → suggest → Nov.
They need only flip three seats and, going back well over half a century, the average midterm gain for a party out of the White House is more than two dozen.
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gain → need → House
Even with the advantage the GOP engineered through aggressive gerrymandering, the deadweight of a deeply unpopular president threatens to drag down a number of Republicans in competitive and some otherwise-not-so-competitive races.
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deadweight → engineer → races
Right now, the biggest question seems to be whether November brings a blue wave, a big blue wave or merely a ripple.
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November → seem → wave
But a problematic candidate, inflation and Trump’s unpopularity give Democrats not far-fetched hopes for a massive upset.
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candidate → give → upset
That’s where things have gotten interesting.
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things → ’ → ?
At the start of this election cycle, it looked like winning control was all but out of Democratic reach.
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winning → look → reach
Of those, nearly two dozen are effectively over before they’ve even started, given the advantage one party holds over the other.
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party → start → other
Of the remainder, most are being held in states Trump won in 2024, which makes them, broadly speaking, much friendlier terrain for Republicans.
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them → hold → Republicans
Democrats need to flip four Senate seats and until fairly recently that inhospitable political map made it seem like an all-but insurmountable challenge.
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it → need → challenge
Now smart handicappers, like the folks at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, say control of the Senate is a toss-up.
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control → say → Senate
“Republicans still retain a structural advantage given the partisan challenges of the map, and Democrats still need almost every key race to break their way,” Jessica Taylor, who tracks Senate races for the Cook Report, wrote in a recent analysis.
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who → retain → analysis
But, she went on, “in a wave election akin to 2006” — when Democrats gained six Senate seats — “even states that President Donald Trump won by double digits could move within Democrats’ reach.”
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Trump → go → reach
That’s exactly what’s happened as inflation festers, the war with Iran drags on and Trump’s political standing steadily deteriorates.
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standing → ’ → Iran
A toss-up means it’s just as likely Republicans will retain their Senate majority.
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Republicans → mean → majority
Let’s start with those things Democrats have going for them, with the usual caveats ...
...
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Democrats → let → caveats
At one time, Georgia looked to be a toss-up as Democrat Jon Ossoff sought reelection in one of those battleground states Trump carried.
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Trump → look → states
But Ossoff has raised a boatload of money and drawn a less-than-world-beating opponent in Republican Rep. Mike Collins.
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Ossoff → raise → Collins
Lately, the buzz around Ossoff has been focused more on a potential 2028 run for president than his November reelection.
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buzz → focus → reelection
Meantime, in North Carolina, where former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is running against former national GOP Chairman Michael Whatley, a Cooper victory seems much more likely than not.
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victory → run → Whatley
A win there would give Democrats one of the four seats they need to flip.
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they → give → seats
Then there’s a handful of red-state seats that Republicans are fighting to hang on to, in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.
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Republicans → ’ → Alaska
In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola managed to win nearly 50% of the vote in the Aug. 18 primary, which is noteworthy given she ran on the same ballot as the GOP incumbent, Dan Sullivan, who finished second.
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who → manage → incumbent
(Another Dan Sullivan also appeared on the ballot; under Alaska’s top-four system both Sullivans will advance to a November runoff, along with Peltola.
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Sullivans → appear → Peltola
The fourth slot is pending.
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slot → pende → ?
In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who was elected three times before losing his 2024 reelection bid amid a Trump landslide, faces Republican Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the seat vacated when JD Vance became vice president.
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Vance → elect → seat
Husted has proved a less-than sure-footed candidate while Brown is waging a strong comeback campaign.
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Brown → prove → campaign
In Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson (a USC grad and former KABC-TV intern!) is running against state Rep. Josh Turek in a state that’s been hammered by Trump’s tariffs and the surging price of gas — especially the diesel fuel that sustains Iowa’s all-important agricultural economy.
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that → run → economy
Turek could also benefit from the strong campaign being waged by gubernatorial front-runner Rob Sand, who tops the Democratic ticket.
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who → benefit → ticket
The land of dashed Democratic dreams!
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land → dash → dreams
Obviously, you know your political history.
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you → know → history
Democrats haven’t won a statewide contest in Texas since 1994, despite no end of hype and hope.
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Democrats → win → hype
…and 34 more, not listed.
The Aporia
