Colby Cosh: Is Alberta’s separatist movement already waning?

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Cite

Cosh, C. (2026, September 4). Colby Cosh: Is Alberta’s separatist movement already waning? National Post. https://nationalpost.com/opinion/colby-cosh-is-albertas-separatist-movement-already-waning

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

National Post · collected 2026-09-04 · by Colby Cosh analysis

Quick Summary

A columnist from the Western Standard expresses skepticism about the prospects of Alberta's separatist movement, citing a recent poll by Research Co. showing only 26% of Albertans support independence, while a majority (74%) oppose a non-binding referendum on separation. The poll also found that even among those who identify as separatists, many intend to vote "No" in the actual referendum, which could potentially extinguish active separation talk for a decade or two. This appears to be a rational position, with some Albertans hoping to use independence as a long-term goal rather than an immediate outcome. The column suggests that the separatist movement may already be waning due to its poor prospects and internal contradictions.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-04, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Alberta's separatist movement may be losing momentum, according to a recent poll by Research Co., which suggests that support for independence is waning. A rally organized by the Oui side of the October referendum drew only 1,000 people, including some counter-protesters, at the Alberta Legislature grounds last weekend - a much smaller turnout than past separatist events. The event was meant to launch the campaign and emphasize the need to get out the vote, but it may indicate that enthusiasm for secession is not as strong as expected. A new poll published by Research Co. on Monday morning also suggests that support for independence is not catching on.

Written for “Alberta Separatist Movement” on 2026-10-21, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Alberta Separatist Movement
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 5% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Global News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 8% hedged 2 of 26 📰 publisher trust 63
“Article A mentions a rally at the Legislature grounds on Sept. 1, but Article B does not mention this specific event and instead talks about a campaign to engage supporters in advance of the referendum”
CBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 16% hedged 11 of 70 📰 publisher trust 74
“Article A describes a rally with a turnout of around 1,000 people on September 1, while Article B mentions a transition plan released by the Alberta Transition Council on September 5”
National Post
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 4% hedged 2 of 45 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A describes a separatist rally on September 1 to coincide with Alberta's birthday, while Article B does not mention any event on September 1 and discusses Liberal appropriation of Conservative policies”
The Globe and Mail
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 3% hedged 1 of 34 📰 publisher trust 53
“Article A describes Premier Smith's speech at Heritage Park on Sunday, while Article B mentions a rally at the Legislature grounds last weekend, which appears to be a different location and possibly a separate event”
Toronto Star
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 25 📰 publisher trust 63
“Article A describes a rally at the Legislature grounds, while Article B mentions a campaign targeting Conservatives without mentioning any specific event”
National Post
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 6% hedged 3 of 47 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A describes a specific rally on September 1, while Article B does not mention any specific date or event, but rather discusses Alberta's historical grievances and their impact.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
22
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
5%
1 of 22 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
60/100
National Post's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-04 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

National Post · 1039 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Colby Cosh
8 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 It looks as though Monday’s Alberta independence referendum, which asked voters whether the provincial government should begin secession negotiations and prepare for a second binding vote, will end up with 76 per cent of the electorate going “Remain” (Option 1 on the ballot) and just 24 per cent “Let the games begin” (Option 2).
🔮 I would never have thought so, but earlier this week the American ambassador to Canada went on a Canadian podcast to warn against Canadian “interference” in U.S. midterm elections.
🔮 I’m afraid that has been my mood during the initial perusal of it, as much as I instinctively dislike the coming wave of oversimplifying “ALBERTA SECESSION WOULD COST THREE ZILLION GRILLION DOLLARS” headlines.
🔮 Some of you will have noticed a new and slightly shocking example of Canada’s longstanding case of information constipation: namely, the occurrence of Fifth China-Canada Defence Coordination Dialogue, which took place in Ottawa on Friday of last week.
🔮 I would say that’s a pretty decent number for the separatists, a base from which they might hope to work towards getting a third of the vote in the actual referendum.
🔮 I couldn’t help ruminating on yesterday’s news of a renewed push to find a more suitable name for Trump Avenue in Ottawa’s Central Park neighbourhood.
🔮 NDP Leader Nenshi never wanted to have a referendum in the first place, so one supposes any excuse for such a demand will do; maybe next week he’ll want the vote called off because of a comet or other celestial portent.
🔮 Cycling advocates sued on Charter of Rights grounds, claiming that the removal of the lanes would expose them arbitrarily to “grossly disproportionate” risk of injury and death.
Also by Colby Cosh
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 8 articles by Colby Cosh →

Topics

Alberta Albertans Canadian Confederation Legislature

Subjects

Alberta GPE · 9× Albertan NORP · 3× Albertans NORP · 2× Confederation ORG · 2× Legislature ORG · 2× Canadian NORP · 1× Mario Canseco’s PERSON · 1× Oui NORP · 1× Research Co. ORG · 1× Standard ORG · 1×

Narrative

In a non-binding referendum like the one now approaching, one would expect to see extra voters who are close to the fence about independence (or union with the Americans) but who intend to vote “Yes” strategically without actually wanting Alberta to exit Confederation.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-04
🔮 I would say that’s a pretty decent number for the separatists, a base from which they might hope to work towards getting a third of the vote in the actual referendum.
2026-09-04 · National Post
Colby Cosh: Is Alberta’s separatist movement already waning? · assertive framing

Claims (22 extracted, 1 hedged)

It confused me a little to see little groups of Alberta separatists heading to a rally with flags, blue hockey sweaters, and posters at the Legislature grounds last weekend. asserted
groups → confuse → grounds
The event, one supposes, was timed to coincide closely with Alberta’s Sept. 1 birthday as a Canadian province, but isn’t that when all our troubles began? asserted
troubles → suppose → province
The Oui side of October’s independence referendum used the rally to launch their campaign and emphasize the need to get out the vote, but the sympathetic Western Standard reported a turnout of around 1,000, including some federalist counter-protesters. asserted
Standard → use → protesters
Past separatist events at the Legislature have been much larger than this; is the cause of secession not catching on? asserted
cause → catch → secession
A new poll published by Mario Canseco’s Research Co. Monday morning gives us fresh reasons to think not. asserted
poll → publish → reasons
Of course, I’m a federalist myself, and, as I wrote last week, I believe the referendum campaign is getting underway under the worst political circumstances imaginable for the separatist side. asserted
campaign → ’m → side
Some of the people campaigning for Confederation have demanded that the vote be called off altogether, apparently preferring not to seize the opportunity that history has handed them. asserted
history → campaign → them
Recommended Videos Research Co.’s new poll, assuming for the moment that any poll at all is worthy of any recognition in the year 2026, finds that 26 per cent of Albertans harbour some support for the province becoming an independent country. asserted
province → assume → support
I would say that’s a pretty decent number for the separatists, a base from which they might hope to work towards getting a third of the vote in the actual referendum. uncertain
they → say → referendum
But when Albertans are polled on the actual ballot question — should the Alberta government “commence the legal process” to have a binding referendum on separation? — the “Yes” option doesn’t do better; it does worse, losing 22 per cent to 74. asserted
it → poll → 74
The separatist strategy is bound to emphasize that a “Yes” vote in the actual referendum would help keep the door to independence open and maximize Alberta’s ability to exert political pressure on Ottawa. asserted
vote → bind → Ottawa
In a non-binding referendum like the one now approaching, one would expect to see extra voters who are close to the fence about independence (or union with the Americans) but who intend to vote “Yes” strategically without actually wanting Alberta to exit Confederation. asserted
Alberta → approach → Confederation
Instead, there appear to be some separation sympathizers who intend to vote “No” and perhaps extinguish active separation talk for a decade or two. asserted
who → appear → decade
This serves to remind us that this is in fact a perfectly rational position! asserted
this → serve → fact
Any native Albertan my age is bound to have joked around and fantasized at times about separation. asserted
Albertan → bind → separation
It is certainly possible to have hopes for independence as a long-term project, perhaps one supported by a proper political party and an ideologically diverse cultural apparatus, rather than something that comes about through an ephemeral democratic shortcut. asserted
that → have → shortcut
It’s possible to be an Alberta separatist who wants to delay political action until the executive branch of the United States gets over its mood of belligerence and rediscovers, or is shown, the rule of law. asserted
branch → ’ → law
It’s possible to be an Alberta separatist who wants to wait and see whether an Albertan Liberal prime minister can follow through on reversing the gormless tendencies of the Trudeau Era. asserted
minister → ’ → Era
(Note: the poll gives that PM a slightly higher trust score than it does to the Opposition Leader, who is also an Albertan. asserted
who → note → Leader
Remember when the West wanted in?) asserted
West → remember → ?
It’s possible to be an Alberta separatist who just doesn’t like the dubious weirdos who have taken charge of the cause right now. asserted
who → ’ → cause
And Alberta separatists should not have trouble understanding this: it’s the same pervasive, somewhat annoying and difficult nuance that has existed and manifested in Quebec for 60 years. asserted
that → have → years
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