It looks as though Monday’s Alberta independence referendum, which asked voters whether the provincial government should begin secession negotiations and prepare for a second binding vote, will end up with 76 per cent of the electorate going “Remain” (Option 1 on the ballot) and just 24 per cent “Let the games begin” (Option 2).
asserted
games → look → Option
So too begins the process of the separatists talking out of both sides of their mouths about the outcome.
asserted
separatists → begin → outcome
“Both sides”: boy, this is an English idiom whose full import never struck me with the thunderous impact it has had this week.
asserted
it → strike → impact
In the runup to the vote, many separatists emphasized that you didn’t, in fact, have to favour secession to vote for Option 2/ “(Another) Referendum.”
asserted
you → emphasize → Option
Option 2 was (they said, hours ago) the right way to vote if you just wanted Alberta to be taken more seriously within Confederation, or to receive more advantageous treatment from it.
asserted
Alberta → say → it
If any Albertan had a sincere belief that this was the issue really on the ballot, Option 2 getting less than a quarter of the vote is an obvious disaster — a landslide for masochism.
asserted
Option → have → masochism
Come the sunrise on the morning after Referendum Day, and the separatists are claiming victory.
asserted
separatists → come → victory
Almost one-quarter of us voted for separation!
asserted
quarter → vote → separation
Listen, I’m impressed that “Referendum” got its 24 per cent, a figure I expected to be more like 21 or 22, but I’m afraid that the most logical interpretation of this outcome is just what the plain reading of the ballot language suggests.
uncertain
reading → listen → language
Which is: an overwhelming majority of Albertans do not want any further entertainment of secession by their government.
asserted
majority → want → government
They don’t want a vote, and they don’t want a top-level intergovernmental negotiation.
asserted
they → want → negotiation
How would the “Referendum” side go about doing better in a binding referendum that only a quarter of us want at all?
asserted
quarter → go → us
How many Albertans would actually press a magic button marked “Immediately secede without any political process or resistance from the federation”?
asserted
Albertans → press → federation
24 per cent is not the point estimate: it’s an absolute upper bound.
asserted
it → ’ → ?
I can accommodate the retort that there are real, dedicated Alberta separatists, perhaps too many of them to be referred to as a “fringe.”
asserted
I → accommodate → fringe
That’s just a term of abuse we can leave out of the discussion.
asserted
we → ’ → discussion
My guess, and it is as informed as any individual’s guess can conceivably be, is that about one-sixth of Albertans would jab the magic button.
asserted
one → jab → button
It’s a funny thing: when I went down to the church to vote on Monday, I did have a certain narcissistic feeling of pleasure, of receiving welcome attention.
asserted
I → ’ → attention
How many people around the world can say that they have had the opportunity to cast such a vote — to sit in judgment on one’s country?
asserted
they → say → country
It will only happen once in my lifetime, I imagine.
asserted
I → happen → lifetime
There were news photographers darting about at the polling station: you could imagine yourself popping up later in the day on a screen in New Brunswick or Germany or Vietnam.
uncertain
yourself → be → Brunswick
And, of course, I couldn’t help slightly regretting a missed opportunity to give a black eye to the nation-state.
asserted
I → help → state
Lord knows I was not there to express faith in or affection for Ottawa.
asserted
I → know → Ottawa
The referendum was a novel, unprecedented event for Albertans — but if you follow that thought to its conclusion, it raises more questions that nobody is really asking.
asserted
nobody → follow → that
If Alberta had been consulted in this way at any other time, would the outcome have been different?
asserted
outcome → consult → time
I think the soft-separatist position would have done much better in 1981, when the motivation for separatism was a catastrophic economic shock rather than a mere sense of offended noblesse, and Alberta’s claims were predicated on genuine suffering that the survivors can never forget.
uncertain
survivors → think → that
There was a period of 10 or 20 months in which a “Referendum” victory was absolutely possible.
asserted
victory → be → which
But for most of the time between 1982 and now, I am convinced that a referendum like this would be likely to have led to almost exactly the same three-to-one outcome.
asserted
referendum → lead → outcome
That’s a pure counterfactual, of course, but everyone in Alberta must have noticed that there was a certain stagnant quality to the deliberative “campaign” on Ballot Question 10.
asserted
everyone → ’ → Question
There was no widely trusted leader who could shift public opinion very much; Carney and Smith and Kenney and Notley and Nenshi all made their appeals for Canada, and the separatists churned out their slopaganda, but I defy you to identify one mind they changed between them, at least with pure rhetoric.
We just don’t know.
uncertain
We → be → rhetoric
We don’t know how 2026 Alberta would compare with the Alberta of 1990 or 2015 or 2045.
asserted
Alberta → know → 1990
This brings us to the point that most of the other provinces have never held separatism-related referendums, and that we absolutely do not know the degree to which Alberta does differ from other Anglo provinces in its attitude toward the centre.
asserted
Alberta → bring → centre
Could British Columbia separatists get 20 per cent of the vote, given the benefit of an ambiguous ballot question?
uncertain
separatists → get → question
Could Manitobans do it?
uncertain
Manitobans → do → it
Nobody’s having a referendum in Newfoundland: would you want to bet that the separatist sympathizers and strategic voters would get less than 24 per cent?
asserted
sympathizers → have → cent
You’d be a fool to do it: I strongly suspect they would start at about 30 and work upward.
asserted
they → do → 30
The Aporia
