Colby Cosh critiques Alberta separatists for rejecting expert advice on the economic implications of separation, as presented in a recent University of Calgary report. The article notes that while the report acknowledges potential benefits under certain conditions, it also highlights significant upfront costs and practical challenges, such as establishing new infrastructure and diplomatic relations. Cosh argues that the separatist movement undermines its own credibility by dismissing the insights of respected economists and policy experts who would be crucial in an independent Alberta's governance.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-17,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
A new report by the University of Calgary School of Public Policy, commissioned by the Alberta government and released on Wednesday, outlines the potential costs and uncertainties of Alberta separating from Canada. The study presents two scenarios: a "smooth" option where negotiations are quick and favorable to Alberta, costing up to $170 billion over five years, and a "difficult" scenario with hostile international reactions, resulting in even higher initial costs and long-term economic disruption. Despite Premier Danielle Smith’s earlier estimate of nearly $400 billion, the report suggests that while there might be benefits down the line, the short-term financial impact would be significant, regardless of negotiation outcomes. Finance Minister Jason Nixon emphasized the substantial uncertainty Alberta would face post-separation.
Written for “Alberta Separation Costs” on 2026-09-17,
grounded in this article and the 3 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.35, but every quote it verified points right, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph
rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 15602: score contradicts its own evidence · logged 2026-09-17
On Wednesday morning, the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy published a report commissioned by the province on the economic implications of Alberta separation.
asserted
School → publish → separation
Must this document itself already count as part of the wastefulness induced by the contrived separation debate?
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document → count → debate
I’m afraid that has been my mood during the initial perusal of it, as much as I instinctively dislike the coming wave of oversimplifying “ALBERTA SECESSION WOULD COST THREE ZILLION GRILLION DOLLARS” headlines.
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SECESSION → ’m → headlines
The report identifies several ways in which an independent Alberta might, quite realistically, end up better off in the not-too-long run with separation.
uncertain
Alberta → identify → separation
The economic impacts are projected under “smooth” and “difficult” political scenarios, with lots of other sources of uncertainty in the background, and the smooth scenario recognizes that Canada really does exploit Alberta in ways that independence would resolve, albeit at enormous upfront expense.
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independence → project → expense
I don’t know if the report will tell intelligent Alberta voters anything they shouldn’t already have figured out for themselves.
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they → know → themselves
I suppose that out here we have all had the thought that we don’t get much out of being part of a sprawling imperial relic that has to maintain a navy and a coast guard while bedewing favoured businesses in the bargain.
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that → suppose → bargain
Independent Alberta will pass the savings on to you!
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Alberta → pass → you
At which point you remember that we probably do want an air force, which we might have to build from scratch, and we’ll want a communications and cybersecurity establishment, if only to protect us from the Canadians, and we’ll need a whole international diplomatic structure sooner or later, and a funded central bank, if our Sovereign Alberta wants one …
And then someone reminds you that WestJet has immediate business-model problems on Day One of independence — if it doesn’t abscond to Vancouver, which it would; and someone observes that we will have to tear up much of border-straddling Lloydminster to create a customs station through its guts; and so on and so forth.
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we → remember → guts
Actually, Lloyd isn’t mentioned in the report except in passing.
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Lloyd → mention → passing
It could probably have its own picturesque chapter.
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It → have → chapter
What keeps occurring to me is that the report is the creation of people who would be incomparably important figures in post-separation Alberta economics and political science, whether you like it or not.
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you → keep → it
The U of C Policy School itself would surely become our equivalent of the French École nationale d’administration that generates the dominant énarque caste.
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that → become → caste
The separatists couldn’t reasonably have asked for (and could not produce) a more Alberta-identitarian group of advisors and technical specialists.
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separatists → ask → advisors
Ted Morton and Jack Mintz are on the advisory panel, and have signed off on the report’s conclusions; the actual authors include Trevor Tombe, Kent Fellows, and other public finance specialists of the most impressive calibre.
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authors → sign → calibre
These people are already helping to cook and serve our high economic policy.
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people → help → policy
You really can argue for separation from the facts and figures in the report they’ve produced, but something tells me the separatists we actually have, most of whom are radically opposed to expertise per se, will handwave it away.
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most → argue → it
And I get it.
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I → get → it
If you have lived through the past 25 years and not been somewhat radicalized against control of ordinary people’s lives by subject-matter experts, you haven’t lived.
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you → live → experts
You should also have noticed that people become claustrophobic prisoners of alternative experts pretty quickly once they completely abandon the kind that the academy stamps out.
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academy → notice → that
It is a crushingly ironic thing for a newspaper columnist to say, but don’t pay too much attention to bylines, is what it comes down to.
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it → say → what
Certainly somebody who makes a habit of reading the news will encounter the Policy School report and realize at certain moments that it is describing a situation of massive political uncertainty and thereby may already be a little behind the times.
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it → make → times
The report takes for granted that Canada, in the Remain scenario, is bound to go on stepping on Alberta’s head with one boot while kicking its rear with the other: the separation dividend isn’t imaginary.
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dividend → take → other
But there are obtuse federal policies being torn up or at least threatened before our eyes, and that has to be part of the whole counterfactual analysis too.
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that → be → analysis
The Aporia
