John Ivison: The truth about why trade talks broke down has yet to be told

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Cite

Ivison, J. (2026, September 3). John Ivison: The truth about why trade talks broke down has yet to be told. National Post. https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-the-truth-about-why-trade-talks-broke-down-has-yet-to-be-told

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

National Post · collected 2026-09-03 · by John Ivison analysis

Quick Summary

Opinion piece by John Ivison speculating that the breakdown of trade talks between the US and Canada was due to last-minute attempts by US negotiators to secure favorable terms, rather than the reasons provided by Prime Minister Carney. According to Commerce Secretary Lutnick, he was not in the room when trade talks broke down but was with President Trump when a deal was thought to be reached. The article suggests that Canada's government may have walked away from the negotiations for political reasons related to provincial elections and referendums. Key numbers or figures are not mentioned, but it is noted that a 15% auto tariff was a sticking point in the talks.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-03, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

American tourism organizations have been aggressively trying to attract Canadian visitors back to the United States through various promotional campaigns since President Donald Trump returned to office and imposed tariffs on Canadian products, causing an informal boycott of travel to the US. Josh Loewen, a Vancouver marketing executive, notes that after Trump’s re-election, Canadian travel to the U.S. dropped dramatically due to the president's rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state and the ensuing trade war. Despite slight improvements in border crossings from May to July, recent escalations—such as the imposition of up to 50% import taxes by both countries—have renewed doubts about any recovery. Loewen believes current efforts to win back Canadian visitors are futile until a new U.S. president takes office and eases tensions between the two nations.

Written for “US Canada Trade War” on 2026-10-19, grounded in this article and the 55 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 US Canada Trade War
Politics · 56 article(s) covering the same event. Compare every outlet's account →

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans strongly left and hedges 14% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Globe and Mail
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 2% hedged 1 of 58 📰 publisher trust 52
“Both articles report on the collapse of a trade deal between Canada and the US, citing similar reasons for its breakdown (US trying to change the terms at the last minute) and timing (around the same deadline)”
National Post
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 9% hedged 3 of 34 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles mention different aspects of a trade dispute between Canada and the US, but no shared specific happening”
TIME
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 11% hedged 5 of 45 📰 publisher trust 59
“Article A focuses on a specific detail about trade talks breaking down, while Article B mentions the breakdown in general terms and provides additional context and quotes from leaders”
Fox News
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 30% hedged 3 of 10 📰 publisher trust 67
“Article A describes a breakdown of trade talks, while Article B mentions a pause in cooperation between the US and Canadian governments due to trade tensions, indicating separate incidents”
BBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 6% hedged 2 of 31 📰 publisher trust 69
“Article B describes a new development (Canada's retaliatory tariffs taking effect) which occurred after Article A described trade talks breaking down”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 14% hedged 8 of 57 📰 publisher trust 68
“Both articles report on the collapse of US-Canada trade talks and mention a truck issue as a point of contention.”
National Post
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 19% hedged 6 of 32 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles mention a recent breakdown in trade talks between Canada and the US, specifically referencing the issue of tariffs on passenger cars and the absence of the US commerce secretary during negotiations.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 7% hedged 4 of 58 📰 publisher trust 63
“Article A discusses the breakdown of trade talks between US and Canada, while Article B mentions a separate issue of Canadians traveling to the US after President Trump's remarks”
CBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 27 📰 publisher trust 73
“Article A mentions a specific breakdown of trade talks two weeks ago, while Article B discusses Alberta's diplomatic approach in the ongoing trade war without mentioning a specific incident or date”
Toronto Star
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 2% hedged 1 of 49 📰 publisher trust 63
“Article A describes the breakdown of trade talks two weeks ago and a specific incident with a commerce secretary's absence, while Article B mentions the collapse of trade talks but focuses on Trump's feud with Canada and renaming Lake Ontario”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
37
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
14%
5 of 37 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans strongly left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
60/100
National Post's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
56
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-03 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

National Post · 987 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)

Who wrote this

John Ivison
13 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 When Sentinel R&D, a Hamilton, Ont.-based defence firm, signed a deal with a Ukrainian drone firm, Airlogix, in May, the response from the Kremlin was unusual.
🔮 A meeting to that end was attended by representatives of 70 institutions on Monday, with the goal of creating a national strategy that might turn the tide. Gabriel Miller, president of Universities Canada, said universities have done work at ground level to improve policies to protect Jews and fight antisemitism by beefing up campus security, improving training in diversity offices, and so on.
🔮 LFI politicians turned up to support some protests, including the left-wing mayor of Saint Denis in the northwestern suburbs of Paris, Bally Bagayoko, who was filmed dancing with students, while garbage cans burned in the background.
🔮 The first was the people of Alberta, who will be asked on Oct. 19 to vote on whether the province should remain in Canada, or whether it should negotiate to hold a binding referendum on independence.
🔮 The Conservatives will try to spin the departure of Scott Aitchison, the popular MP for Parry Sound–Muskoka, as being of negligible importance.
🔮 U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters in the White House on Monday that he thinks a trade deal with Canada that gets rid of tariffs will be struck, possibly within three to four weeks.
🔮 (But) we’re trusting this man with massive changes that will accelerate projects at the cost of Indigenous rights, at the cost of the environment, and at the cost of protections for workers, including the fundamental right to strike.”
🔮 Sooner or later, he will come down to earth with a bump – quite possibly because he has decided to expend some of the political capital he has accumulated.
🔮 When Norway’s prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, meets with Prime Minister Mark Carney in Ottawa next week, the subject of farmed salmon will be high on the agenda.
🔮 But Carney seems supremely uninterested in Parliament and likely views an election campaign as a distraction. The same could not be said for the political people around him.
Also by John Ivison
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 13 articles by John Ivison →

Topics

Alberta Canada Canadians Quebec U.S.

Subjects

Canada GPE · 8× U.S. GPE · 6× Lutnick PERSON · 5× Carney PERSON · 4× Trump PERSON · 3× Canadian NORP · 2× Canadians NORP · 2× Ford ORG · 2× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× Janice Charette’s PERSON · 1×

Narrative

It seems highly likely that Lutnick was trying to repeat the tactic that worked for him over the Gordie Howe bridge negotiations by pushing for more advantageous terms at the 11th hour — in this case, exempting trucks from the tariff reduction on passenger cars.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-03
🔮 The prime minister has told a version of the past that cannot be disproved by the available facts, but which places heavier emphasis on culture, language and sovereignty issues than the events may warrant.
2026-09-03 · National Post
John Ivison: The truth about why trade talks broke down has yet to be told · assertive framing

Claims (37 extracted, 5 hedged)

Canada’s chief negotiator has pointed out that the U.S. commerce secretary was not at the table when trade talks broke down nearly two weeks ago. asserted
talks → point → table
Janice Charette’s point was that the truck issue was discussed repeatedly by negotiators in the room, a place where the commerce secretary was noticeable by his absence. asserted
secretary → discuss → absence
It seems highly likely that Lutnick was trying to repeat the tactic that worked for him over the Gordie Howe bridge negotiations by pushing for more advantageous terms at the 11th hour — in this case, exempting trucks from the tariff reduction on passenger cars. asserted
that → seem → cars
It didn’t work this time. asserted
It → work → ?
But if Lutnick was not in the negotiation room, by his own account, he was with Donald Trump when the president thought he had reached a deal with Prime Minister Mark Carney. asserted
he → think → Carney
By the afternoon of Friday the 21st, Canada was adding “crazy ideas” to the mix, Lutnick said. “I said to one of their ministers: ‘Are you actually trying to blow this up?’ asserted
you → add → this
His answer was: ‘I’m not allowed to say that’.” asserted
I → allow → that
Lutnick’s allegation is that the Canadians walked away for political reasons to do with the provincial election in Quebec and the independence referendum in Alberta. asserted
Canadians → walk → Alberta
For people who have clearly lost touch with morality, there is a curious sense of moral outrage among the senior figures of the Trump administration. asserted
who → lose → administration
They feel genuinely aggrieved that they were misled and disrespected by the Carney government. asserted
they → feel → government
But it should worry Canadians that their government’s account is at best ambiguous. asserted
account → worry → Canadians
The prime minister has told a version of the past that cannot be disproved by the available facts, but which places heavier emphasis on culture, language and sovereignty issues than the events may warrant. uncertain
events → tell → issues
The public still trusts the prime minister, but his reputation for candour was dented by his version of the Gordie Howe bridge-funding deal and it may take further hits as accounts of how the talks broke down continue to trickle out. uncertain
talks → trust → hits
Strategic ambiguity was his stock in trade as a bank governor trying not to show his hand on the direction of future interest rates. asserted
ambiguity → try → rates
It is a linguistic approach less suited to politics. asserted
It → suit → politics
This is not to suggest that Trump does not covet Canada and is not seeking to destroy its auto industry. asserted
Trump → suggest → industry
Carney’s campaign slogan that the president is trying to break us so he can own us resonated because it is accurate. asserted
it → try → us
But at the negotiating table, a deal was reached that would have withstood U.S. inquiries about the discoverability of French-language shows on Netflix and its interest in aligning future trade agreements. asserted
that → negotiate → agreements
(As U.S. trade negotiator Jamieson Greer pointed out, the existing CUSMA agreement includes a provision which gives the U.S. influence over future deals with non-market players.) asserted
which → point → players
The deal-breaker was autos, and Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s refusal to put American booze back on the shelves in his province if Canada signed on to a 15 per cent auto tariff. asserted
Canada → put → tariff
As one Canadian official told me: “We really pulled out because Ford was not on board.” asserted
Ford → tell → board
Ford admitted as much appearing on ABC over the weekend, when he said negotiations stopped after he told Carney it was “a terrible deal for Canada.” asserted
it → admit → Canada
A senior industry figure suggested that Lutnick’s last-minute change on heavy-duty trucks was grasped by the federal government as a pretext for walking away. uncertain
change → suggest → pretext
The source suggested that the Carney government was willing to sign on to the deal because it has given up on the auto industry in Canada. uncertain
it → suggest → Canada
He said that Trump’s Jan. 1 delayed deadline for increasing auto tariffs to 50 per cent is to give Honda and Toyota time to announce expansion plans in the U.S., at the expense of Canadian production. asserted
deadline → say → production
Another auto sector source said that is incorrect and Ottawa is still fighting to keep the industry in Canada. asserted
Ottawa → say → Canada
While the Japanese car giants are indeed planning to expand in the U.S., the source said both companies are committed to Canada, in part because of lower costs on certain things, such as employee health care. asserted
companies → plan → care
Toyota is understood to be talking to the federal government about additional investments, the source said. asserted
source → understand → investments
It is a tangled web, and it is hard to see how it resolves itself. asserted
it → see → itself
Tiff Macklem, the Bank of Canada governor, said on Wednesday that he does not expect the U.S. tariffs to have a large direct impact on the overall level of economic activity in Canada, given they cover just five per cent of exports south. asserted
they → say → exports
But he noted an upside risk to the bank’s inflation forecast because of tariffs and persistently high oil prices. asserted
he → note → tariffs
No one typifies the debasement of American intelligent society to accommodate the unique stupidity of the Trump years like Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary. asserted
one → typify → Bessent
But he is probably right in saying the Canada-U.S. trade spat will only be resolved by direct talks between the president and the prime minister. asserted
spat → say → president
Those talks should probably wait until after the Alberta referendum asking about separation on Oct. 19. asserted
talks → wait → Oct.
By that time, the silent enemy of economic growth — inflation — may be imposing itself, and both sides may be more willing to provide more stable market access. uncertain
sides → impose → access
Any negotiated settlement would give way to an uneasy peace, given Trump’s tendency to renege on every deal he’s ever signed. asserted
he → negotiate → deal
But it would be an improvement on the circular firing squad the two countries have currently assembled. asserted
countries → assemble → squad
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