Unity or bust: How U.S. tariffs get spun into Alberta's separatism debate
One side views trade war as an external threat that will bind us; the other, a sign of Canadian failure
A foreign trade threat that has prompted a rally-’round-the-flag moment for Canadians may also have provided a boost for a pro-unity group whose emblem is a modified Canadian flag.
uncertain
emblem → spin → group
Thomas Lukaszuk said he pulled in more than 11,000 viewers for an online town hall Sunday to update his Forever Canadian group’s fight to counter Alberta separatism.
asserted
he → say → separatism
That’s far more than he garnered at virtual gatherings this spring, or at the height of Forever Canadian’s massive petition drive last year, and he credits the higher traffic to the concerns around the newly escalated U.S. tariff war against Canada.
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he → ’ → Canada
It was perhaps inevitable that interest would rise in his group’s patriotic lawn signs as the calendar ticked toward the Oct. 19 referendum on Alberta’s future in Canada.
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calendar → rise → Canada
But this weekend’s acrimonious collapse in bilateral trade talks could heighten the movement’s urgency, Lukaszuk said.
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Lukaszuk → heighten → urgency
“I'm finding that the outpour of support for Forever Canadian is rising every time we see these existential threats to our sovereignty, particularly from [the] United States,” he told CBC News.
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he → find → News
“We have to be particularly united at this point in time.”
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We → have → time
The rising friction has prompted Quebec’s separatist Parti Québécois to pledge that if elected this fall, it won’t hold a secession referendum until after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office.
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Trump → rise → office
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said this weekend she won’t follow suit, not with this referendum process well under way.
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she → say → way
According to an Angus Reid Institute poll taken this weekend, more than three-quarters of respondents support Canada refusing the Trump administration's trade deal terms, and responding with dollar-for-dollar tariffs.
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Canada → accord → tariffs
That much solidarity risks not leaving much rhetorical room for separatists to make their own case to break away the province from Canada amid Trump’s punitive measures and continued threats.
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separatists → risk → measures
But the independence advocates are determined and they see an opportunity.
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they → see → opportunity
They are leaning into their side’s existing distrust of the federal Liberal government, and paint the latest developments as a national disaster that Albertans should walk away from.
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Albertans → lean → that
- ANALYSIS | U.S. tariffs go easy on Alberta.
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tariffs → go → Alberta
That lets separatists go harder on Canada
- 'We will still feel it here': Tariffs might hit Alberta economy, jobs more indirectly, say experts
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experts → let → economy
To deride the crowd that favours an “elbows up” response to the tariff threat, some separatists on social media like to call them “elbozos.”
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separatists → deride → them
That includes Alberta Prosperity Project’s Jeffrey Rath, who conveys this all as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s crass play to gin up patriotism.
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who → include → patriotism
He has said the failure in trade talks is an economic disaster for Canada against a more powerful neighbour, and a sign of Carney’s “Trump derangement syndrome.”
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failure → say → syndrome
In one of his videos Monday, he said any Canadian leader like Carney will focus their policies and attention on the more populous parts of Quebec and Ontario, which he highlighted in a graphic.
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he → say → graphic
“This is why Alberta wants to leave,” Derek Smith said.
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Smith → want → ?
“This red portion of the map decides who’s in charge of the country.”
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who → decide → country
In a livestreamed Unacceptable Fringe episode later Monday — with more than 31,000 views — Derek Smith and his guests claimed Carney is an inadvertently great salesman for Alberta secession.
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Carney → livestreame → secession
“I for one tend to be optimistic about this because at the end of the day, what's bad for Canada is good for Alberta independence, baby,” one of Derek Smith’s guests told the show.
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one → tend → show
In this broad, decentralized independence movement, not all voices take part in the “elbozo” name-calling or overtly root for the country to suffer.
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country → take → calling
Jason Lavigne, a fellow daily YouTuber who touts independence, said he hadn’t heard that term until CBC News asked about it.
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News → tout → it
But like the others, he puts a positive spin on the deterioration of the Canada-U.S. trade relationship and argues this could sway undecided Albertans to vote for a binding referendum to leave the country.
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this → put → country
“What they're paying close attention to is whether or not Canada can work, and this will be a strong indication that quite possibly it can't work,” Lavigne told CBC News.
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Lavigne → pay → News
To this point, Alberta has largely escaped the damaging effects of tariffs, with oil, gas and agricultural products exempted by Trump.
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oil → escape → Trump
But Lavigne now sees high downside risk for his province from this trade war escalation, either in higher costs from retaliatory tariffs to the lingering prospect that oil and gas export taxes are imposed as leverage tactics.
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taxes → see → tactics
“There's a lot of people here in Alberta that really strongly believe that if there was a negotiation where Alberta could have the [lead], it would have come out much differently,” he said of an independent Alberta.
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he → be → Alberta
“It likely would have led to no tariffs, possibly some free trade.”
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It → lead → tariffs
Thus far, separatists appear to have struggled to win broad support for their movement, repeated polls suggest.
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polls → appear → movement
And opposing them is an ever-growing movement that spans much of Alberta’s political spectrum, including former NDP and UCP premiers Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney on a newly launched joint campaign with the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
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that → oppose → Commerce
“Most Albertans are proud Canadians at heart, and we’re reminded of that with the attacks that our country is facing from abroad,” Kenney told CBC Radio’s Calgary Eyeopener on Tuesday.
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Kenney → remind → Tuesday
But it’s hard not to notice some envy of the American system among Alberta separatists.
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it → ’ → separatists
Alberta Prosperity Project’s recent discussion paper on an independent Alberta floats elected judges and senators, open-carry gun laws, and a president with veto power — all the trappings of U.S. constitutional framework.
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paper → float → framework
While supporters of Carney and his government’s position may express frustration with Trump, some separatists are more likely to side with the U.S. president.
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separatists → express → president
Derek Smith, the Unacceptable Fringe host, said this week that if Trump offered citizenship to Albertans, “I’d happily pack up and go to the United States at this point.
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I → say → point
At least they have real leadership there.”
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they → have → leadership
Part of that may be strategic, Lavigne suggests, because the U.S. president’s support and recognition of an independent Alberta would be pivotal to a would-be country.
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support → suggest → country
…and 6 more, not listed.
The Aporia
