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Low, moderate, critical: ASIO boss sounds alarm on urgent upgrade of Australia’s terror warnings

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Knott, M. (2026, September 17). Low, moderate, critical: ASIO boss sounds alarm on urgent upgrade of Australia’s terror warnings. The Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/low-moderate-critical-asio-boss-sounds-alarm-on-urgent-upgrade-of-australia-s-terror-warnings-20260918-p60xrs.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

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The Sydney Morning Herald · collected 2026-09-17 · by Matthew Knott

Quick Summary

ASIO boss Mike Burgess is advocating for an overhaul of Australia’s terrorism threat warning system, which he believes does not accurately reflect current national security risks. Currently, the nation's alert level is set at 'probable,' but Burgess argues that this doesn't capture the nuanced threats posed by Islamic extremists and state actors like China and Iran. He highlighted ASIO's disruption of 16 terror plots in recent months and suggested moving towards a more detailed scale similar to the UK’s system, which includes levels such as ‘low,’ ‘moderate,’ ‘substantial,’ ‘severe,’ and ‘critical.’
Written by AI on 2026-09-17, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

The Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) boss, Mike Burgess, is pushing for an urgent upgrade of Australia’s terror warning system. This comes after he personally warned prominent Jewish Australians that they could be targeted by Iran for assassination. Burgess also highlighted China as the main threat to sabotage and espionage, stating Beijing could disrupt key infrastructure like telecommunications networks if there was conflict with Australia.

Burgess argues that Islamic extremists still account for around 70% of ASIO's terror caseload. He believes the current system, which remains at a "probable" threat level, is too vague to effectively convey the seriousness of ongoing threats. Former Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo acknowledged Burgess’s concern but argued that altering the warning levels would likely be ineffective without specific instructions on how to respond.

Written for “Terror Warning Upgrade Australia” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Terror Warning Upgrade Australia
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

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How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
29
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
21%
6 of 29 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
61/100
The Sydney Morning Herald's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-17 · how these are computed

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Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Sydney Morning Herald · 5788 article(s) · 15 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 15 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Matthew Knott
31 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 “He’s a huge fighter, he will never bend down.”
2026-10-30 · assertive framing · ‘We need Bibi’: How Netanyahu defied the polls
🔮 The Joint List parties have not traditionally sought to join Israeli governing coalitions on the grounds that it would be wrong to provide legitimacy to the Israeli government until the occupation of the Palestinian territories in the West Bank and Gaza ends.
🔮 Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult all the party leaders to inquire who they could support as prime minister.
🔮 To their dismay, the problem has only worsened in the years since.
🔮 “God willing, we will stay here until the government will take this settlement and put it into Gaza,” says Chaim, a member of the controversial Nachala settler organisation led by Daniella Weiss, known as the godmother of the Israeli settler movement.
🔮 The message was as subtle as a slap in the face: vote for me or armageddon will follow.
🔮 But Rahamim would regularly cross into Gaza to buy jewellery, eat hummus and catch up with Palestinian friends, including some who attended his wedding.
🔮 As blazing sunlight streams through the glass windows of Ehud Barak’s office, the former Israeli prime minister paints a dark portrait of what could unfold as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to vote next Tuesday.
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🔮 US President Donald Trump has made a stunning late intervention in Israel’s elections, endorsing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a move the veteran leader hopes could allow him to remain in office.
Also by Matthew Knott
‘We need Bibi’: How Netanyahu defied the polls
2026-10-30 · The Sydney Morning Herald
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 31 articles by Matthew Knott →

Topics

ASIO Australia Australians Jewish the Department of Home Affairs

Subjects

Burgess PERSON · 8× ASIO ORG · 5× Australians NORP · 3× Australia GPE · 2× Home Affairs ORG · 2× the Department of Home Affairs ORG · 2× China GPE · 1× Iran GPE · 1× Jewish NORP · 1× Mike Burgess PERSON · 1×

Narrative

Former Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo said he understood Burgess’ concern that the public had become “anaesthetised” to the meaning of a probable terror attack, but added he did not believe changing the warning system would make much difference. “It frankly wouldn’t matter what gradations or traffic light system you use, such warnings are likely to be ignored without a specific call to action,” he said.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-17
🔮 The nation’s decade-old terror threat warning level is set to be overhauled at the urging of ASIO boss Mike Burgess, who has revealed he personally warned prominent Jewish Australians they could be targeted for assassination by Iran.

Claims (29 extracted, 6 hedged)

The nation’s decade-old terror threat warning level is set to be overhauled at the urging of ASIO boss Mike Burgess, who has revealed he personally warned prominent Jewish Australians they could be targeted for assassination by Iran. uncertain
they → set → Iran
Burgess also singled out China as the country’s top concern for sabotage and espionage, declaring Beijing was capable of shutting down key critical infrastructure assets such as telecommunications networks if a conflict broke out with Australia. asserted
conflict → single → Australia
As former ASIO boss Dennis Richardson called for political correctness not to stymie difficult debates about radical Islam, Burgess said that Islamic extremists still make up around 70 per cent of his organisation’s terror caseload. asserted
extremists → call → caseload
ASIO officials have held several meetings with the Department of Home Affairs over the nation’s terror threat warning system, which Burgess believes is too blunt and fails to convey the seriousness of the threats the nation faces. asserted
nation → hold → threats
“Australia’s terrorism threat level remains at probable, but I do not believe the system was designed for a situation like the one we now face,” Burgess said in a speech last week to mark the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks. asserted
Burgess → remain → attacks
Doubling down on his argument earlier this year that the current system did “not tell the full story”, Burgess said: “The next level on the scale is expected, which applies when we have intelligence about a specific attack. asserted
we → double → attack
We do not. asserted
We → do → ?
But we do know the environment is degrading and acts of politically motivated violence are becoming more likely than ‘probable’ suggests.” uncertain
probable → know → violence
ASIO has disrupted 16 terror plots in the nine months since the Bondi massacre, he said. asserted
he → disrupt → massacre
Government sources, who were not authorised to speak publicly, said Burgess believed a “more meaningful” terror level system could be established so Australians were not so shocked when the next terror attack happened. uncertain
attack → authorise → ?
Officials have been scrutinising the alert levels used by other nations, including the United Kingdom. asserted
Officials → scrutinise → Kingdom
A Home Affairs spokesperson said: “To ensure that the national terrorism threat advisory system remains effective in an evolving environment, the Department of Home Affairs and ASIO are working together to review the system. asserted
Department → say → system
The review has commenced.” asserted
review → commence → ?
Underlining the dramatic changes in national security since the current system was introduced, the spokesperson said that “sophisticated mass-casualty attacks have been increasingly supplanted by individuals or small groups using basic weapons and tactics, making it harder for authorities to detect and intervene”. asserted
authorities → underline → weapons
The current Australian terror threat advisory system, introduced in 2015, has a scale of five levels: not expected, possible, probable, expected and certain. asserted
system → introduce → levels
By contrast, the UK system includes five different levels: low (meaning an attack is highly unlikely), moderate (an attack is possible but not likely), substantial (an attack is likely), severe (an attack is highly likely) and critical (an attack is highly likely in the near future). asserted
attack → include → future
In a lengthy podcast interview with veteran talkback host Neil Mitchell to be released on Friday, Burgess said the terror level was at “the upper end of probable, but I can’t go to the next level, or recommend we do, until I get that specific intelligence”. asserted
I → release → intelligence
The system matters because it sends an important signal to law enforcement agencies and organisers of major sporting events and concerts, as well as the broader public, he said. asserted
he → matter → events
Former Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo said he understood Burgess’ concern that the public had become “anaesthetised” to the meaning of a probable terror attack, but added he did not believe changing the warning system would make much difference. “It frankly wouldn’t matter what gradations or traffic light system you use, such warnings are likely to be ignored without a specific call to action,” he said. asserted
he → say → action
He urged Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to deliver an annual national security statement to parliament to help Australians better understand the dangers to national security. asserted
Australians → urge → security
“Winston Churchill did not need a terror threat scale or artificial device devised by officials. asserted
Churchill → need → officials
He could speak eloquently, in brief and memorable phrases, to explain the threats Britain faced,” he said. uncertain
he → speak → threats
In a bracing warning, Burgess told Mitchell: “I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Iran would want to kill prominent Jewish Australians.” asserted
Iran → tell → Australians
The domestic spy boss said he had raised this in discussions with some community leaders. asserted
he → say → leaders
While Islamic extremism still makes up most of ASIO’s terror caseload, Burgess said Australia did not have a “growing” Islamic extremism problem, as it had been a threat for some time. asserted
it → make → time
Burgess said that nation states are “hacking power and telco networks, preparing for the day that they can turn them off should they need to … in a time of conflict”. asserted
they → say → conflict
Describing China as the “principal concern” in this arena, Burgess said: “They are working actively to understand our systems, and I believe in some cases they could [shut down systems] today should they need to.” uncertain
they → describe → systems
Soon before ending his posting in July, then Chinese ambassador Xiao Qian launched a remarkable attack on ASIO in this masthead, accusing it of fabricating espionage claims and issuing a sweeping denial that Beijing engages in foreign interference. uncertain
Beijing → end → interference
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