ASIO boss Mike Burgess is advocating for an overhaul of Australia’s terrorism threat warning system, which he believes does not accurately reflect current national security risks. Currently, the nation's alert level is set at 'probable,' but Burgess argues that this doesn't capture the nuanced threats posed by Islamic extremists and state actors like China and Iran. He highlighted ASIO's disruption of 16 terror plots in recent months and suggested moving towards a more detailed scale similar to the UK’s system, which includes levels such as ‘low,’ ‘moderate,’ ‘substantial,’ ‘severe,’ and ‘critical.’
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-17,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
The nation’s decade-old terror threat warning level is set to be overhauled at the urging of ASIO boss Mike Burgess, who has revealed he personally warned prominent Jewish Australians they could be targeted for assassination by Iran.
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they → set → Iran
Burgess also singled out China as the country’s top concern for sabotage and espionage, declaring Beijing was capable of shutting down key critical infrastructure assets such as telecommunications networks if a conflict broke out with Australia.
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conflict → single → Australia
As former ASIO boss Dennis Richardson called for political correctness not to stymie difficult debates about radical Islam, Burgess said that Islamic extremists still make up around 70 per cent of his organisation’s terror caseload.
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extremists → call → caseload
ASIO officials have held several meetings with the Department of Home Affairs over the nation’s terror threat warning system, which Burgess believes is too blunt and fails to convey the seriousness of the threats the nation faces.
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nation → hold → threats
“Australia’s terrorism threat level remains at probable, but I do not believe the system was designed for a situation like the one we now face,” Burgess said in a speech last week to mark the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks.
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Burgess → remain → attacks
Doubling down on his argument earlier this year that the current system did “not tell the full story”, Burgess said: “The next level on the scale is expected, which applies when we have intelligence about a specific attack.
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we → double → attack
We do not.
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We → do → ?
But we do know the environment is degrading and acts of politically motivated violence are becoming more likely than ‘probable’ suggests.”
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probable → know → violence
ASIO has disrupted 16 terror plots in the nine months since the Bondi massacre, he said.
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he → disrupt → massacre
Government sources, who were not authorised to speak publicly, said Burgess believed a “more meaningful” terror level system could be established so Australians were not so shocked when the next terror attack happened.
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attack → authorise → ?
Officials have been scrutinising the alert levels used by other nations, including the United Kingdom.
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Officials → scrutinise → Kingdom
A Home Affairs spokesperson said: “To ensure that the national terrorism threat advisory system remains effective in an evolving environment, the Department of Home Affairs and ASIO are working together to review the system.
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Department → say → system
The review has commenced.”
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review → commence → ?
Underlining the dramatic changes in national security since the current system was introduced, the spokesperson said that “sophisticated mass-casualty attacks have been increasingly supplanted by individuals or small groups using basic weapons and tactics, making it harder for authorities to detect and intervene”.
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authorities → underline → weapons
The current Australian terror threat advisory system, introduced in 2015, has a scale of five levels: not expected, possible, probable, expected and certain.
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system → introduce → levels
By contrast, the UK system includes five different levels: low (meaning an attack is highly unlikely), moderate (an attack is possible but not likely), substantial (an attack is likely), severe (an attack is highly likely) and critical (an attack is highly likely in the near future).
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attack → include → future
In a lengthy podcast interview with veteran talkback host Neil Mitchell to be released on Friday, Burgess said the terror level was at “the upper end of probable, but I can’t go to the next level, or recommend we do, until I get that specific intelligence”.
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I → release → intelligence
The system matters because it sends an important signal to law enforcement agencies and organisers of major sporting events and concerts, as well as the broader public, he said.
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he → matter → events
Former Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo said he understood Burgess’ concern that the public had become “anaesthetised” to the meaning of a probable terror attack, but added he did not believe changing the warning system would make much difference.
“It frankly wouldn’t matter what gradations or traffic light system you use, such warnings are likely to be ignored without a specific call to action,” he said.
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he → say → action
He urged Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to deliver an annual national security statement to parliament to help Australians better understand the dangers to national security.
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Australians → urge → security
“Winston Churchill did not need a terror threat scale or artificial device devised by officials.
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Churchill → need → officials
He could speak eloquently, in brief and memorable phrases, to explain the threats Britain faced,” he said.
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he → speak → threats
In a bracing warning, Burgess told Mitchell: “I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Iran would want to kill prominent Jewish Australians.”
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Iran → tell → Australians
The domestic spy boss said he had raised this in discussions with some community leaders.
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he → say → leaders
While Islamic extremism still makes up most of ASIO’s terror caseload, Burgess said Australia did not have a “growing” Islamic extremism problem, as it had been a threat for some time.
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it → make → time
Burgess said that nation states are “hacking power and telco networks, preparing for the day that they can turn them off should they need to … in a time of conflict”.
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they → say → conflict
Describing China as the “principal concern” in this arena, Burgess said: “They are working actively to understand our systems, and I believe in some cases they could [shut down systems] today should they need to.”
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they → describe → systems
Soon before ending his posting in July, then Chinese ambassador Xiao Qian launched a remarkable attack on ASIO in this masthead, accusing it of fabricating espionage claims and issuing a sweeping denial that Beijing engages in foreign interference.
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Beijing → end → interference
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Subscribers → sign → newsletter
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