Tony Burke was late to the National Press Club to announce the government's migration policy on Thursday.
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Burke → announce → Thursday
After the embarrassment of having to abort his earlier press club appearance, followed by a degree of faffing around by senior ministers over the detail, and unsuccessful negotiations between government and opposition, Burke produced a package that, on his own admission, did not contain all he'd wished.
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he → have → all
It attacks some problems.
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It → attack → problems
But the government will be wedged between those who think the changes don't go far enough and critics who believe they're draconian.
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they → wedge → those
The government will stop the entry of the families of most overseas students, which will make life harder for some and have the effect, presumably, of discouraging others from coming at all.
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life → stop → others
Working holiday-makers wanting to stay two or three years will face the luck of the draw, under a new ballot system.
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makers → work → system
Only 5,000 will get a third year, compared to 31,000 last year.
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5,000 → get → 31,000
Some farmers and businesses in regional areas looking for labour will be worried.
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farmers → look → labour
A proposed "No Further Stay" condition for visitor visas is a blunt instrument, but is aimed at dealing with a large loophole that's being exploited.
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that → propose → loophole
Burke candidly anticipated he'll come under attack for toughening compliance measures, with greater use of detention as the government tries to deport overstayers.
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government → anticipate → overstayers
But again, there is a substantial challenge in a system where enforcement has become too loose.
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enforcement → be → system
Delicate balance on numbers
The measures won't satisfy those who desire a much smaller migration program.
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who → satisfy → program
They are about achieving the budget target of 225,000 Net Overseas Migration (NOM) by 2027–28, not going lower.
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They → achieve → 2027–28
Voters wanting a substantially bigger squeeze on the total intake will still be looking to One Nation, or waiting for the Coalition, which is still wrestling with its own alternative.
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which → want → alternative
As Burke told parliament: "If you make cuts too deep, too hard in the immigration system, you trash the Australian economy.
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you → tell → economy
There will be a good reception for the government's changes to give priority to skilled workers in vital areas such as health care and construction.
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changes → give → care
This should have been done years ago.
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This → do → ?
Burke would have liked to act against those he called "disingenuous protection claims" — people who, coming to the end of their visa hopping, launch a protection claim that might give them "up to nine years working in Australia" while their appeals drag on.
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appeals → like → Australia
"To give a sense of the gravity of this, if we took the people who apply from countries where more than 85 per cent of the applications fail, that constitutes 80 per cent of our case load.
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that → give → load
This is an issue I'd like to be able to deal with.
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I → like → ?
"
But that needs legislation and no agreement was able to be reached in two recent meetings between Anthony Albanese and Angus Taylor.
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agreement → need → Albanese
With One Nation effectively "owning" the immigration issue on the right these days, the opposition would like to move on from it, but eventually felt it could not afford to give too much ground to Labor.
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it → own → Labor
One wonders, however, if the government should not have just included the measure to deal with bogus claims, to see whether the opposition might give in under parliamentary pressure.
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opposition → wonder → pressure
LoadingUntidy handling from Burke
Burke's belated appearance came days after One Nation did its pre-emption act, with its own policy launched on Monday — albeit a plan that has been blasted by opponents, stakeholders and many experts.
Inside and outside Labor, Burke's untidy handling of what is a central issue has had some people scratching their heads.
When he was installed in the home affairs portfolio, replacing Clare O'Neil who'd struggled in the job, Burke was widely seen as both competent and the classic "safe pair of hands".
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Burke → come → hands
After all, he's one of the elite group competing to eventually lead Labor.
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he → compete → Labor
Burke's mistake was getting ahead of his colleagues by lining up the press club before the policy process had been finalised.
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process → get → club
When the draft went to senior ministers, they had issues.
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they → go → issues
Burke was reluctant to cancel his speech, which made the last minute pull-out look worse.
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out → cancel → speech
Reports of a big split between Burke and Treasurer Jim Chalmers over the policy were overblown; indeed, Chalmers tried to facilitate Burke's attempt to meet his initial timetable.
But it is notable that Chalmers's general stance on immigration is very forward leaning, putting him close to that of South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas, who recently warned about "the prospect of mainstream politics entering a political race to the bottom for who can cut migration numbers the most".
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who → try → numbers
The migration policy changes proposed by the various parties will have big fallouts for stakeholders and the economy.
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changes → propose → stakeholders
But many discontented voters may just make their judgements on the bottom line numbers.
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voters → make → numbers
It doesn't take the ubiquitous opinion polls to tell us the electorate is in a very bad mood, with angst about immigration just one strand in this.
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angst → take → this
Within Labor they talk about the mid-term blues.
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they → talk → blues
They've been in this territory before of course — remember, quite close to the last election, the government's very future appeared at possible risk.
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future → remember → risk
Now it has a huge majority to protect it.
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it → have → it
On the other hand, in previous difficult times, One Nation hadn't become the mini-monster now confronting both conservative and Labor parties.
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Nation → become → parties
On Monday the government will release the latest Intergenerational Report, which charts the economic and budgetary challenges for the coming four decades.
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which → release → decades
These are formidable, especially for a country that has fundamental problems, notably a seeming inability to get productivity moving and the pressures of an aging population.
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productivity → have → population
The challenges of the future 40 years will seem theoretical to many people, given how quickly things change.
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things → seem → people
Forty years ago, the power of social media and AI, obsessing us now, were way over the horizon.
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power → obsess → horizon
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
