Tony Burke finally made it to the National Press Club this afternoon, to unveil Labor’s long awaited immigration reforms.
The remarkable thing wasn’t what he announced.
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he → make → what
It was that such a modest collection of measures took six weeks of cabinet warfare, political panic and public humiliation to finally produce.
But before he got stuck into the details, Burke got stuck into the idea that Australia is a mass migration country, dismissing the notion as ‘absurd’.
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Australia → take → notion
He cites ‘one simple fact’: the intergenerational report handed down before the pandemic, which forecast a 2030-31 population 700,000 larger than what’s now being forecast.
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what → cite → population
Burke couldn’t hide the smirk on his self-righteous face.
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Burke → hide → face
But how often do governments get these forecasts right anyway?
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forecasts → get → ?
Back in 1998 the ABS forecast the Australian population come 2051 would land somewhere between 23.5 and 26.4 million.
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population → forecast → 23.5
It moved above 28 million in June of this year, a full 25 years before it was forecast to hit a figure millions lower than that.
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it → move → that
Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke unveiled a sweeping overhaul of Australia's migration system in his National Club Address on Thursday
A stunning graph shows just how much Australia's population has grown compared to other nations
The changes will slash access to extended working holiday visas and make it harder for temporary migrants to remain in the country by repeatedly switching visas
Why?
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migrants → unveil → visas
So believe Burke’s smirk if you want to, but forecasting is often wrong and the extent of the ABS’s miscalculation is proof positive that we are a nation of mass migration.
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we → believe → migration
And in the last quarter of a century it has accelerated the population well beyond the infrastructure capabilities to cope with it.
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it → accelerate → it
To suggest otherwise, as Burke did, is utterly absurd, and makes it harder to trust everything else he had to say today.
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he → suggest → everything
Burke’s plan is essentially a plan to meet the existing plan.
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plan → meet → plan
Labor already forecast that net overseas migration would fall from around 300,000 to 225,000 by 2027-28.
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migration → forecast → 2027
The measures announced on Thursday are designed to ensure reality finally conforms with that Treasury forecast.
International students will face much tougher restrictions on bringing family members to Australia.
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students → announce → Australia
Visa hopping will be curtailed.
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hopping → curtail → ?
Working holiday visas will be tightened.
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visas → work → ?
International students will face much tougher restrictions on bringing family members to Australia
Visitor visas will be shortened, bridging visas tightened and foreign students prevented from endlessly switching courses or visa categories to prolong their stay.
The government will also try to ensure that more people leave when their lawful entitlement to remain in Australia expires.
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entitlement → face → Australia
Labor should be able to explain why someone is coming, how long they will stay and when they are expected to leave.
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they → explain → ?
A temporary visa shouldn’t become permanent residency courtesy of administrative exhaustion fighting the original terms in a bid to stay longer.
But this is nothing more than overdue maintenance of a broken immigration system dressed up as a grand national reset.
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this → become → reset
The permanent migration program remains at 185,000.
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program → remain → 185,000
The humanitarian intake remains at 20,000 (according to sources, Burke wanted to lower it but Prime Minister Albanese overruled him).
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Albanese → remain → him
And the net overseas migration forecast of 225,000 hasn’t been lowered one little bit.
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forecast → lower → 225,000
PVO (pictured) described the overhaul as nothing more than overdue maintenance of a broken immigration system dressed up as a grand national reset
Burke has merely announced regulatory changes designed to stop Labor overshooting its own target yet again.
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Labor → picture → target
Even that ambition comes very late.
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ambition → come → ?
Net overseas migration peaked at more than half a million after Labor came to office, overwhelming housing, hospitals, schools and transport while helping the government manufacture headline economic growth through population expansion.
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government → peak → expansion
Australians were repeatedly told the surge was temporary and the numbers would come back down.
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numbers → tell → ?
When they remained far higher than forecast, ministers simply produced another forecast that they didn’t meet.
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they → remain → that
Now we have a plan to make the forecast come true.
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forecast → have → plan
Don’t bet your house on it, even as property prices collapse off the back of Labor’s broken promise on housing taxes.
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prices → bet → taxes
The immigration policy’s whole tortured gestation tells us far more about Labor than Burke’s carefully crafted spin at the Press Club.
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gestation → tell → Club
He was supposed to deliver this address six weeks ago remember.
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He → suppose → address
It was cancelled at the last minute because the government couldn’t agree on what its immigration policy actually was.
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policy → cancel → minute
Burke’s signature proposal was then repeatedly dragged through cabinet amid tensions with Treasurer Jim Chalmers and nervousness among Labor MPs.
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proposal → drag → MPs
The immigration policy’s whole tortured gestation tells us far more about Labor than Minister Tony Burke’s carefully crafted spin at the Press Club on Thursday
Visitor visas will be shortened, bridging visas tightened and foreign students prevented from endlessly switching courses or visa categories to prolong their stay
It was an extraordinary embarrassment.
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It → tell → stay
National Press Club speeches aren’t casual dinner reservations not requiring a credit card number that ministers can simply cancel because something else comes up.
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something → require → that
They are organised well in advance, usually after the policy has been settled and the political choreography arranged.
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choreography → organise → advance
Burke was rolled, there is no point pretending otherwise.
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Burke → roll → ?
He wanted legislation providing stronger control over demand driven visa categories, tighter time limits on asylum claims and fewer opportunities for applicants to use lengthy appeal processes to remain in Australia.
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applicants → want → Australia
What emerged today was a narrower version that can largely be implemented through regulations, visa conditions and departmental directions.
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that → emerge → regulations
Burke says legislation would have been better and he’s right.
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he → say → ?
…and 36 more, not listed.
The Aporia
