When, way back, the opposition started talking about cutting immigration, it would have thought on the basis of polling it was tapping into a vein of political gold.
asserted
it → start → gold
But since then, Pauline Hanson has taken ownership of the mine and pretty much locked it away for One Nation.
asserted
Hanson → take → Nation
Simon Welsh, from the Redbridge Group political consultancy, says: "The Liberals talking about migration doesn't create more Liberal voters, it creates more One Nation voters."
asserted
it → say → voters
"Immigration offers people a simple explanation for the pressures they are feeling.
asserted
they → offer → pressures
When the major parties talk about it, it validates that.
asserted
it → talk → that
[Voters] then ask, who is the strongest voice on immigration?
asserted
voice → ask → immigration
It's a massive strategic error [by the major parties]," Welsh says.
asserted
Welsh → say → parties
Also, and crucially, the opposition may not have initially appreciated how a migration policy can open a political sinkhole that it's easy to be pushed into and hard to scramble out of.
uncertain
it → appreciate → that
We're seeing that this week, now opposition leader Angus Taylor has finally released the Coalition's plan.
asserted
Taylor → see → plan
Taylor late to the conversation
One Nation and the government already had their policies out, so Taylor appeared very much a follower rather than leader on the issue.
asserted
Taylor → have → issue
His policy would cut net overseas migration (NOM), currently a little under 300,000, to 100,000 in each of the first two years, rising to 160,000 by the fourth year (NOM is "the net gain or loss of population through immigration to Australia and emigration from Australia").
asserted
NOM → cut → Australia
For Liberals looking to compete with One Nation, Hanson's offering goes further, with a negative NOM initially, rising to 130,000.
asserted
offering → look → 130,000
The real problem for the Coalition, however, is that it is very difficult to win a policy argument when there are multiple moving parts, vocal stakeholders, many potential losers and outcomes that rely on assumptions that may or may not stand the test of the real world.
uncertain
that → win → world
The migration system certainly needs significant reform.
asserted
system → need → reform
The government, which ordered a major inquiry led by former public servant Martin Parkinson that reported in 2023, should have done more years ago; instead it was playing catch up in its recently announced changes.
asserted
it → order → changes
But whatever changes are made will have intended and unintended (and unforeseen) consequences, triggering intense debate.
asserted
made → make → debate
As the Parkinson review put it: "Our work reinforced that, while there often was strong agreement between stakeholders about broad objectives and high-level issues, putting migration into practice involves making difficult decisions about trade-offs and balancing competing, equally valid, concerns."
asserted
putting → put → concerns
The thrust of the Parkinson review was similar to that of the opposition's policy – moving away from the high proportion of temporary visa holders that underpins our labour market — although that review was more detailed and nuanced.
asserted
review → move → market
Backpackers in, guest workers out
Taylor condemns the "guest worker" economy, saying "Australia should be a home, not a hotel".
asserted
Australia → condemn → economy
Over subsequent years there has been a major trend, under Liberal and Labor, to people on temporary visas, which are more demand-driven.
asserted
which → drive → visas
In trying to cut migration, there are various big "levers" that can be pulled — visa classes with large numbers, including the working holiday program, foreign students and those on temporary graduate visas.
asserted
that → try → visas
Whichever levers are chosen will have consequences and bring reactions.
asserted
chosen → choose → reactions
When the government announced in its recent policy overhaul a tightening of working holiday numbers, farmers and others in the regions screamed blue murder, saying there'd not be enough people to pick the fruit or serve in local cafes.
asserted
farmers → announce → cafes
The backpackers have been protected under Taylor's policy.
asserted
backpackers → protect → policy
The Nationals insisted on that.
asserted
Nationals → insist → that
As it looked for levers, the opposition went after (among others) those on temporary graduate visas — people who have finished their studies but have visas to stay and work for a period.
asserted
who → look → period
They fill many jobs, including in the gig economy.
asserted
They → fill → economy
Business organisations have attacked the Coalition's proposals as potentially denying them workers they need.
asserted
they → attack → workers
They are not buying Taylor's argument that having more skilled workers as part of a more limited overall intake will serve their needs better.
asserted
having → buy → needs
And in some parts of the economy — the aged care sector, for instance — it's relatively unskilled labour that's required.
asserted
that → require → instance
The opposition argument is that aged care workers could switch to the skilled stream, but how many would?
uncertain
many → switch → stream
Former immigration official Abul Rizvi, writing in Guardian Australia, says: "There is no chance a NOM figure of 100,000 a year over two years can be delivered if the labour market remains at around its current [tight] state …
asserted
market → write → state
The Coalition would be overwhelmed by pressure from the business community to increase its target."
asserted
Coalition → overwhelm → target
The policy would hit foreign students, not so much directly as indirectly.
asserted
policy → hit → students
The opposition says there would be only a modest cut in the number of students allowed in.
asserted
opposition → say → students
But there would be a disincentive effect from a tougher approach to family members accompanying students (as the government is taking) and from scrapping temporary graduate visas.
asserted
government → accompany → visas
International education is a big industry for Australia, so these changes would have potentially serious implications for export income as well as for university finances.
asserted
changes → have → finances
LoadingCoalition wants to move past immigration
asserted
LoadingCoalition → want → immigration
To what extent the policy would dent the wider Australian economy, which has been held afloat recently on the large intake, will be a meaty debate from now until the election.
asserted
which → dent → election
Unfortunately for the Liberals, one of those central to the policy's framing, spokesman Jonno Duniam, is preparing to depart parliament just as the difficult selling job gets underway.
asserted
job → prepare → parliament
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
