New South Wales Premier Chris Minns delivered an attention-grabbing prediction this week.
asserted
Minns → deliver → prediction
"By any poll, by any measure, [One Nation leader] Mike Newman will either be the premier or the opposition leader after March 13," Minns said on Sydney radio.
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Minns → say → radio
On present indications, the best One Nation could do in Victoria would be to prop up a Coalition minority government, although there seems a fair prospect Opposition Leader Jess Wilson could get to a majority.
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Wilson → do → majority
There's no chance of One Nation Victorian leader Warren Pickering becoming opposition leader.
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Pickering → be → ?
The latest Resolve Political Monitor NSW poll, published in September, has Labor on 29 per cent, One Nation 25 per cent and the Coalition 24 per cent.
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Labor → publish → cent
The Minns government, although in minority, should be in a strong position to win a second term.
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government → win → term
A pragmatist from Labor's right, and a leader with a relatable style, Minns has distanced himself from the Albanese government, which is still bogged in the problems from its controversial budget, with a now deeply unpopular prime minister.
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which → distance → minister
High inflation adds to the problem
The NSW opposition is weak.
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opposition → add → problem
On current assessments, the Liberals are considered likely to lose metropolitan seats to Labor.
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Liberals → consider → Labor
The Nationals could face a near wipeout, with One Nation well placed to grab regional seats.
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Nation → face → seats
Newman, formerly a trade bureaucrat who spent many years working in Japan, is a more credible figure than Pickering.
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who → spend → Pickering
If One Nation did become the official opposition in NSW, the most populous state, that would be a serious shock to, and realignment of, the political system in this country.
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that → become → country
It would have sweeping implications federally, notably diminishing both the Liberals and Nationals.
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It → have → Liberals
It would surely shake the leadership of Angus Taylor, who is from NSW.
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who → shake → NSW
One question, as NSW moves towards its election, is whether voters, who usually distinguish between state and federal issues, might, if the Albanese government is still in the doldrums, use the opportunity to give the feds a kick over the cost of living.
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government → move → living
This week's high inflation figures — with the headline figure at 4.3 per cent in the year to September (up from 4 per cent in the year to August) and the underlying rate at 3.7 per cent — have homebuyers bracing, given the high market expectations of another interest rate rise on Tuesday.
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homebuyers → have → Tuesday
The government is feeling ever more sharply the blow back from a disgruntled electorate to which it can't afford to give relief.
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it → feel → relief
While it continues to reject the argument that its own spending has contributed significantly to the high inflation, it is also responding to that argument.
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it → continue → argument
Treasurer Jim Chalmers this week was at pains to emphasise the mid-year budget update due in December would contain a savings package.
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update → emphasise → package
But both he and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese refused to commit to these amounting to net savings.
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these → refuse → savings
"We'll continue to have those discussions … in the cabinet, in the ERC (Expenditure Review Committee).
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We → continue → ERC
That's what we do," Albanese said.
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Albanese → do → what
LoadingGovernment still ahead on economic management
Reserve Bank officials, who have been out and about in recent days including at Senate estimates hearings, have been walking a delicate line.
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who → include → line
They are trying to get across the message that spending needs to be contained, while keeping within their own lane, which requires they are not seen to be telling the government how it should act.
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it → try → government
Of course, government spending (which also includes state spending) is not entirely responsible for the inflationary problem.
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which → include → problem
Although there was an issue before the Middle East conflict, the war is a major factor in accelerating inflation.
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war → be → inflation
More generally, a surge in private sector investment from the AI boom, combined with supply constraints, adds to inflation.
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surge → combine → inflation
In the latest Essential poll, released this week, when people were asked (from a list) what was most responsible for the rising cost of living, 32 per cent said government spending, while 24 per cent opted for global events, and 19 per cent for supermarket price gouging.
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cent → release → gouging
A frustrated Chalmers said early this week, in a podcast with Nine: "So for people who think we should cut much harder, they should nominate, I think, those areas that should be cut more substantially.
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that → say → areas
But we have been finding savings, many more savings than our predecessors, and that's because we take the hard yards of budget sustainability seriously."
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we → find → sustainability
Meanwhile, responding to calls of "What would the Coalition do?", the opposition this week listed $31 billion worth of cuts and other savings, focused on the climate bureaucracy, "corporate welfare", the housing bureaucracy, and changes to the tobacco excise.
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opposition → respond → excise
It said these cuts would more than fund its promise to index income tax brackets.
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cuts → say → brackets
The Essential poll showed the disquiet among voters continues to grow.
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disquiet → show → voters
More than six in 10 voters (61 per cent) said they thought the country was on the wrong track, compared with 54 per cent in January and 46 per cent in October 2025.
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country → say → October
Despite this unease, the government was still ahead on economic management, with 32 per cent of voters selecting Labor when asked which party they would trust to "ensure the economy works in the interests of everyday Australians".
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economy → select → Australians
But One Nation followed, on 29 per cent, with the Coalition, which sees the economy as its favoured ground, on just 18 per cent.
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which → follow → cent
Albanese won't be on hand when the Reserve Bank delivers its decision on rates on Tuesday.
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Bank → deliver → Tuesday
It had been thought the PM might skip it, given how many international meetings he has to attend during summit season.
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he → think → season
But King Charles made it clear he hoped to see him there.
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he → make → him
On Thursday, Albanese was asked if he could give people "a sense of when their lives are going to get easier and not harder".
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lives → ask → sense
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
