An independent report commissioned by the Alberta government and released on Wednesday estimates that separating from Canada could cost up to $170 billion over five years. The University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy study outlines two scenarios: a "smooth" transition with lower costs and benefits, or a more challenging path leading to significant economic losses including a 16.2% drop in GDP after 20 years under the difficult scenario.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-16,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
An independent report into the possible separation of Alberta presents multiple outcomes, but ultimately determines the cost to leave Canada could cost up to $170 billion.
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cost → present → billion
The report by the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy was commissioned by the Alberta government and released Wednesday.
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report → commission → government
It found Albertans would face high costs in the short term with uncertain benefits in the long run, and whether talks with Canada are “smooth” or “difficult” would impact that future.
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are → find → future
Two hypothetical scenarios are given to provide Albertans a look into the costs that come with separation.
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that → give → separation
A “smooth” scenario would see a quick, comprehensive and favourable deal with Canada that gives an orderly transition of the province to become a separate country.
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that → see → province
The “difficult” path would see Canada and other countries be hostile and could result in a deal taking a much longer time if one is reached at all.
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one → see → time
In either situation, the report said establishing a new country could range from $50 billion up to $170 billion in the first five years of separation, in addition to the impacts on economic growth and the province’s own fiscal position.
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establishing → say → growth
If Alberta experiences the “difficult” scenario though, the report paints a stark picture.
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report → experience → picture
The GDP would see a loss within five years of 10.1 per cent, employment could drop by 10 per cent, a typical worker could earn almost $5,500 less than if the province had not separated, and the tax each person pays could increase up to $5,500 annually.
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person → see → 5,500
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After 20 years, the report suggests while unemployment would decline, many people would depart the workforce, leaving the unemployment rate at 4.7 per cent.
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people → get → cent
Annual wages for a typical worker could be almost $12,000 below what they could have been without separation and taxes per person would rise by $6,600.
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taxes → rise → 6,600
The province’s GDP would also fall by 16.2 per cent.
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GDP → fall → cent
Under the “smooth” path, the report could see the province maintain access to major trade markets, expand its resource development, and provide government services more efficiently.
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province → see → services
But it also finds Alberta’s gross domestic product (GDP) could be lower by about 2.2 per cent within five years, with employment 0.7 per cent lower than it currently is, take-home pay could see a dip of more than $1,200 annually and each taxpayer would pay about $800 more.
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taxpayer → find → more
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Québec → take → judge
After about 20 years, the report estimated the GDP would increase by 3.4 per cent, employment would go up by 0.7 per cent and the taxes Albertans pay would decrease by $1,100.
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Albertans → estimate → 1,100
Take-home pay for workers could also rise by more than $1,800 annually compared to what they would have been.
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they → take → 1,800
An expert advisory panel was appointed to review the report and prepare an independent assessment.
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panel → appoint → assessment
“The panel concurs that separation results in short run economic costs for Alberta for uncertain net benefits in the longer run.
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separation → concur → run
However, we also stress that Canadians should be aware that Alberta’s separation will undoubtedly harm Canada as well,” said Jack Mintz, chair of the advisory panel.
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Mintz → stress → panel
Treasury Board President and Finance Minister Jason Nixon said in a statement following the release of the report that it gives “important considerations” for Albertans as they prepare to vote in the upcoming Oct. 19 referendum.
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they → say → referendum
He also said the advisory panel’s own insights will help Albertans interpret the report.
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insights → say → report
“The panel’s assessment emphasizes that both the scenarios outlined in the report highlight how costly it would be for Alberta to separate from Canada in the short term and also highlight the substantial amount of uncertainty Alberta would face in the long term,” Nixon said.
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Nixon → emphasize → term
Albertans are expected to vote on a referendum that asks voters whether Alberta should stay in Canada or hold a second binding referendum to quit Confederation.
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Alberta → expect → Confederation
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