In short:
One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce says voters are "tired" of economists, dismissing warnings about the impacts his party's migration policy could have on the economy.
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policy → say → economy
The party has proposed sending migration to net negative rates for three years by heavily restricting student visas and blocking visas for family members of skilled workers.
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party → propose → workers
Labor and the Coalition are also proposing to slash migration, but have not detailed their policies.
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Labor → propose → policies
One Nation is "not afraid" to drive migration to negative levels, with its Treasury spokesman saying he will follow the will of the people, not warnings from economists in deciding how deeply to cut migration rates.
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he → drive → rates
Business and the university sector have warned One Nation's proposal to cut migration by about 750,000 places over three years would devastate the economy.
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proposal → warn → economy
Speaking on ABC National Forum, Mr Joyce said voter concerns on migration had to be respected.
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concerns → speak → migration
"The will of the Australian people is so pronounced, this has to be dealt with, we will deal with it," Mr Joyce said.
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Joyce → have → it
Political commentator George Megalogenis said no government had ever purposefully caused a net outflow of migrants, adding migration had been negative only four times in Australia's history: twice during the depressions of the 1890s and 1930s, and twice during the deployment of soldiers during the first and second world wars.
"If you're going to take ... 766,000 people out of the Australian economy and society for three years, you have tanked the economy in a way that is on the scale of the depression of the 1890s and 1930s," Mr Megalogenis said.
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Megalogenis → say → 1890s
Net overseas migration has been falling from its peak in mid-2023, when international borders reopened after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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borders → fall → pandemic
While the surge of migrant arrivals has slowed to pre-COVID rates, the number of migrants departing has also remained flat, leading to migration rates still above the government's long-term forecasts and above the pace of housing construction.
Joyce: People 'tired' of economists
The National Forum heard views on migration amid a raging debate on the issue — while Labor, the Coalition and One Nation have all taken a position to cut migration rates, the details of which visa categories should be cut often prompts fierce reactions from sectors where there are sometimes already workforce shortages.
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categories → slow → sectors
Earlier today, One Nation announced its plan to heavily restrict the number of international students allowed to study in Australia and blocking skilled workers from bringing family to Australia.
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Nation → announce → Australia
Net migration would be net negative for three years — meaning more people leaving the country than arriving — until an ongoing cap of 130,000 places a year took effect.
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cap → mean → effect
Mr Joyce defended One Nation's proposal, but dismissed questions about the economic impact it could have.
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it → defend → impact
The issue of what it is going to cost I think is contentious, but I have no concern about following the will of the Australian people," Mr Joyce said.
"
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Joyce → go → people
I think the Australian people are sort of tired of the fact that you have to go to an economist to come up with public policy, to go to the Parliamentary Budget Office, and, to be quite frank, I have been around this game for a while and I have never seen a forward estimates in any budgetary paper be even close to the mark."
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estimates → think → mark
Mr Joyce said he was not worried about what the Parliamentary Budget Office or another office might conclude about One Nation's migration policy "because they're not elected, I am".
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I → say → policy
He noted that the party's policy did not touch demand-driven visa programs, like the Pacific worker program which many farmers rely on, or visas for skilled workers themselves — just those that would allow them to bring family.
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them → note → family
Earlier, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) warned that pursuing a pre-determined migration target was a mistake.
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pursuing → warn → target
If you are basing the outcome on a set of arbitrary numbers and an arbitrary target, which is not achievable without across-the-board cuts in a whole range of categories, then you are going to do long-term damage to the Australian economy," ACCI chief executive Andrew McKellar said.
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McKellar → base → economy
Speaking on National Forum, former deputy prime minister and Nationals MP John Anderson said Australia had only avoided recession because of high migration rates.
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Australia → speak → rates
But he said that voters were being drawn away from the major parties by a concern about migration.
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voters → say → migration
"A balanced, reasonable, immigration rate is good economically," Mr Anderson told National Forum.
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Anderson → tell → Forum
"It's good socially, whilst we agree 'the law of the land' really does apply, but we need to realise how badly broken [the migration system] is."
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system → agree → land
"We are here because One Nation has captured the initiative, because vast numbers of Australians think the system is now not working for them."
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system → capture → them
Labor and Coalition yet to settle migration policy
Both Labor and the Coalition have announced their own intentions to cut migration as One Nation's popularity has surged.
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popularity → settle → migration
The federal government has a target to reach a net migration rate of 225,000 a year by 2028, but is yet to detail new policy intended to bring down migration from the current rate of about 300,000 a year.
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government → have → 300,000
Labor's planned changes to migration were postponed several weeks ago, and continue to be debated by cabinet.
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changes → plan → cabinet
The Coalition, meanwhile, has signalled its intention to tie Australia's migration program to housing construction rates to ensure that migration does not outpace housing supply — though it has not yet detailed that proposal.
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it → signal → proposal
Frontbencher Andrew Hastie said cutting migration would require "trade offs", which was why his party was still working through its position.
"We are committed to this, to getting it right, though — that is the difference between us and One Nation," Mr Hastie said.
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Hastie → say → us
Mr Hastie said he agreed with One Nation's proposal to reduce temporary graduate visas, as was "stopping the visa hopping", but he said it was unclear how One Nation intended to do that.
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Nation → say → that
While much of the debate has focused on what level to cut migration by, and population pressures on housing and infrastructure, there has also been a question around who should be allowed to migrate to Australia.
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who → focus → Australia
One Nation has proposed banning some migrants by preventing travel from countries where the Department of Foreign Affairs has issued a "do not travel" advisory due to terrorism or other security risks.
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Department → propose → terrorism
And the Coalition has proposed tightening the test for prospective migrants to make compliance with a statement of Australian values a binding visa condition, and delay access to social security supports for non-citizens.
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compliance → propose → citizens
Human rights advocate and lawyer Nyadol Nyuon said trying to pin criminality on certain communities was the kind of thing dividing Australians.
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trying → say → Australians
Ms Nyuon said the migration debate was often used as a placeholder for conversations around race.
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debate → say → race
"I don't have to look a particular way to love this country, but whenever we attempt to speak about how our belonging can look like, you meet such resistance, and the majority of the time that resistance comes from how you look," Ms Nyuon said.
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Nyuon → have → time
Multicultural Affairs Minister Anne Aly said she feared losing the Australia she grew up in.
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she → say → Australia
"I grew up playing cricket in a street with kids from Greece and Yugoslavia at the time, Italian, Chinese, and nobody cared.
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nobody → grow → time
Nobody cared what language your mum spoke," Ms Aly said.
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Aly → care → language
"Nobody cared that my skin got darker as the sun was over us.
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sun → care → us
…and 3 more, not listed.
The Aporia
