Europe’s focus turned nervously to Sweden on Sunday, after an explosive election in Germany just a week earlier placed a far-right party, officially classed as “extremist”, on the brink of power in a German state for the first time since the Nazi era.
asserted
election → turn → era
A party with neo-Nazi roots has been pulling the government’s strings in Sweden for the last four years – would the country’s general election put the far right formally in government?
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election → pull → government
Or would enough Swedes opt for a gear change, having seen the Sweden Democrats’ hardline (some would say poisonous) agenda in action?
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agenda → opt → action
Votes were still being counted on Wednesday but it was immediately clear that the far-right Sweden Democrats had suffered a setback; their first loss of support among voters since it entered parliament for the first time 16 years ago.
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it → count → time
The party slipped from being the country’s second biggest party to its third.
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party → slip → third
The centre-left Social Democrats appear poised for a return to power, although it could take months for their leader, Magdalena Andersson, to form a coalition.
uncertain
leader → appear → coalition
Strong results for the left and green parties gave her left bloc a wafer-thin, three-seat majority.
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results → give → majority
Have Swedes reached the limits of a taboo-busting experiment with populist, nationalist rightwing prescriptions?
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Swedes → reach → prescriptions
And is there a message for mainstream leaders across Europe, many of whom seem fatalistic about a continental far-right surge?
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many → seem → surge
France goes to the polls in April while governments in Italy, Spain and Poland, all face their electorates later next year.
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governments → go → electorates
The Dutch political scientist Cas Mudde says elections in one country are a poor guide to what will happen in another.
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what → say → another
Specific local factors in Sweden, including a scandal, may have dented the far right’s support.
uncertain
factors → include → support
For Mudde, the scale of the AfD’s win in Saxony Anhalt, however, was “a black day for Europe” – and with far-right ideas gaining ground across the continent, he warned mainstream politicians that “today’s key fight is for democracy, rather than for party or power”.
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fight → gain → party
This is where Sweden offers a cautionary tale.
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Sweden → offer → tale
Its political establishment had “fully normalised” the far-right party, Mudde said.
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Mudde → normalise → party
“Its nativism is now shared by all the major parties, albeit in lighter form, from the Moderates on the right to the Social Democrats on the left.
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nativism → share → left
But the decline in the far right’s support, for now, he thinks, “at the very least creates space for mainstream parties to focus on issues other than immigration”.
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parties → think → immigration
Electoral rankings go up and down, she said, and the party’s influence will endure.
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influence → go → ?
More important now is how the mainstream parties respond.
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parties → respond → ?
“We focus a lot on the extreme and radical right parties, but the key to their influence is what the other parties do.
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parties → focus → what
Why have Sweden’s mainstream parties adopted the far right’s policies?
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parties → adopt → policies
The Social Democrats have co-
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Democrats → co → ?
opted their ideas, even though they are counter to the country’s needs.
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they → opt → needs
In Sweden, we need competent, talented people who want to come and live here, we need labour for health and social care.
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we → need → health
Yet nationalism seems to be the prevailing ideology now.
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nationalism → seem → ?
In a widely read Guardian essay headlined How Sweden lost its soul – and stopped being Sweden, published before the vote, Martin Gelin documented his country’s transformation after 2022.
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Gelin → read → 2022
Rightwing parties that year signed a Faustian pact with the Sweden Democrats, buying its support for a minority rightwing government.
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parties → sign → government
The far right was given a direct hand in shaping policy.
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right → give → policy
“A new Sweden has emerged, cruel and cold for migrants”, wrote Gelin, with xenophobic and ethno-nationalist ideas “now comfortably embedded in the political mainstream”.
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ideas → emerge → mainstream
Most shockingly, Andersson’s Social Democrats, modelling themselves on their hardline Danish counterparts, had bought into the far right’s framings on crime and immigration.
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Democrats → model → crime
Will Sweden’s Social Democrats now learn from their worst performance in more than 100 years, and embrace an agenda that does not involve deporting toddlers to Iran, people with dementia to the UK, or locking up 14-year-olds?
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that → learn → olds
“When it comes to linking crime and immigration, this is the new normal,” she said.
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she → come → crime
“The Social Democrats will not pursue policies that are more liberal.”
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that → pursue → policies
Yet the political centre in Sweden could articulate a clear alternative to the far right, Mudde says.
uncertain
Mudde → articulate → right
The Left and the Greens did significantly better among young voters in this week’s election.
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Left → do → election
“This reflects a development we see across Europe, namely that young people prefer outspokenly leftwing parties over centre-left parties.
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people → reflect → parties
the Sweden Democrats have “deradicalised” in selective ways, to broaden their appeal, Jungar told me.
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Jungar → deradicalise → me
By contrast, what was striking in Germany, was how the AfD doubled its score to 44% of the vote, on what Constanze Stelzenmuller in the FT called “a programme of stunning malevolence”.
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Stelzenmuller → strike → malevolence
Two further regional elections this Sunday in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will be closely watched, including by the AfD’s American backers such as Elon Musk.
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elections → watch → Musk
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania has economic and demographic conditions comparable to Saxony Anhalt.
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Pomerania → have → Anhalt
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
