Any and all ships may pass, at least at first.
uncertain
ships → pass → ?
That was how the spokesperson for Yemen's Houthis rebel militia put it.
asserted
spokesperson → put → it
Transit through the Red Sea would be safe, with one exception: According to the Houthi spokesperson, ships from Saudi Arabia would not be allowed to pass this stretch of the sea.
uncertain
ships → accord → sea
The comments came during a time when the Houthi militia has been fighting to increase its presence at the southern entrance to the ocean passage.
asserted
militia → come → passage
The Houthis now control the tiny volcanic island of Mayun, also known as Perim, at the entrance to the Red Sea, as well as other parts of the Yemeni coast and some small islands.
asserted
Houthis → control → coast
With these moves, pressure is growing on Saudi Arabia, the country that opposes the Houthis and previously fought a war (unsuccessfully) with them.
asserted
that → grow → them
But pressure is now also increasing in Egypt.
asserted
pressure → increase → Egypt
Every decrease in shipping traffic through the Red Sea also impacts one of that country's most important sources of national income, the Suez Canal.
asserted
decrease → impact → income
As yet, maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has not been significantly reduced.
asserted
traffic → reduce → Strait
According to news agency Reuters, last Saturday 24 ships passed through it and on Sunday, 27 did so.
uncertain
27 → accord → Sunday
The Houthis appear to want to signal that their plan is not stop traffic altogether.
asserted
plan → appear → traffic
Ships have to pass it to enter the Red Sea.
asserted
Ships → have → Sea
In general though, maritime traffic has decreased here, according to maritime intelligence organization Kpler.
uncertain
traffic → decrease → Kpler
On Monday, 21 ships went through the strait.
asserted
ships → go → strait
But in the middle of July, the average number of ships passing through was 47.
asserted
number → pass → ships
How will things develop from here?
"The Houthis could actually interrupt, or at least significantly disturb, the connection between Asia and Europe," says Stephan Roll, a senior fellow with the Africa and Middle East division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, or SWP, in Berlin.
uncertain
Roll → develop → Berlin
"So first we have to wait and see how big the actual disruption to the Suez Canal will be.
asserted
disruption → have → Canal
Even complete control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait doesn't automatically mean control of the Suez Canal.
asserted
control → mean → Canal
But it does give the Houthis a further opportunity to indirectly threaten traffic.
asserted
it → give → traffic
For Egypt, this new disruption comes at a particularly unwelcome time.
asserted
disruption → come → time
Houthi attacks at the end of 2023 had already disrupted business at the Suez Canal.
asserted
attacks → disrupt → Canal
According to the International Monetary Fund, earnings at the canal in 2024 fell by around $6 billion (€5.2 billion).
uncertain
earnings → accord → billion
Before the current security crisis, Egypt had been making between $9 billion and $10 billion from the Suez Canal annually.
asserted
Egypt → make → Canal
More recently things had actually been improving again.
"
asserted
things → improve → ?
The situation is certainly problematic compared to 2023," Roll told DW.
asserted
Roll → compare → DW
"But it is not so clearly negative compared to the situation one, two or even three months ago."
Thanks to rising oil prices and the resulting higher cost of circumnavigating Africa, shipping companies had been using the Red Sea as they travelled between Asia and Europe.
asserted
they → compare → Asia
The Suez Canal's finances had recently improved.
asserted
finances → improve → ?
The Suez Canal Authority, which manages the passage, reported that during the 2025-2026 fiscal year, revenues had risen by 23% to $4.67 billion (€4.5 billion).
asserted
revenues → manage → billion
Despite the various conflicts in the region, this actually represented a recovery for the Suez Canal.
asserted
this → represent → Canal
Houthi offensive could change all that
There is also a second critical factor.
uncertain
offensive → change → that
After recent drone attacks that the Saudis blamed on Iraqi groups, Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline to the coastal city of Yanbu will be out of service for at least several weeks.
asserted
pipeline → blame → weeks
Between 4 million and 5 million barrels of oil were going through the 1,200 kilometer pipeline per day as the Saudis attempted to circumnavigate the Strait of Hormuz, blocked due to the US-Iran war.
asserted
Saudis → go → war
This latest damage could put as much as 4% of global supply at risk, according to Reuters.
uncertain
damage → put → Reuters
An analysis by Qatar-based think tank, the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, warns of a scenario where the Persian Gulf and Red Sea are both likely to become more precarious.
asserted
Gulf → base → scenario
The East Asia Institute, a think tank based in Korea, has also written about the dangers of dual choke points.
asserted
Institute → base → points
Neither route can be seen as an independent alternative because flows of oil and trade depend on secure connections at several points.
asserted
flows → see → points
Certainly for Egypt, this will increase economic pressure.
asserted
this → increase → pressure
What can Egypt do about this?
asserted
Egypt → do → this
In geopolitical terms, there is not a lot that Egypt can do.
asserted
Egypt → be → that
The Houthis in Yemen have only impacted the country indirectly.
asserted
Houthis → impact → country
…and 15 more, not listed.
The Aporia
